Saints Need Dormant Running Game to Awaken Against Falcons
A 4-9 New Orleans Saints squad returns from their bye week to host the 5-8 Atlanta Falcons this Sunday. The Falcons also had a bye last week. Playoff chances for either team are highly unlikely, but the winner of this game clings on to the slimmest of hope.
The Saints have scored 30 or more points just twice this season and have been held to less than 20 in four of their last five outings. Poor production has been one of their many problems this year. New Orleans also has among the most penalties and most committed turnovers in the league.
New Orleans ranks 16th in total offense, averaging 343.5 yards per game, but they've scored just one touchdown in their last nine quarters of play. Andy Dalton will make his 11th straight start for the Saints, but the passing game has been handcuffed by an inconsistent running game.
They'll face a Falcons team that ranks 30th in total defense. Atlanta has allowed nearly 381 yards per game and ranks near the bottom of the league against both the run and pass. The Falcons have allowed 30 or more points three times this season, but have surrendered less than 20 in their last two contests.
With the lack of weapons at receiver outside of star rookie Chris Olave, it's crucial that the Saints establish a balanced attack. Let's see how they'll fare against Atlanta's run defense.
Saints Rushing Attack
- 20.4 points per game (21st)
- 109.5 rushing yards/game (22nd)
- 4.4 per rush (19th)
- 9 rushing touchdowns (24th)
- 39.6% 3rd Down Percentage (17th)
Nov 7, 2021; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs against the Atlanta Falcons. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
New Orleans has failed to rush for 100 yards in their last five games and six of the last seven contests. Those failures have crippled an offense with a limited quarterback and with few receiving weapons outside of Olave and TE Juwan Johnson.
Sixth-year RB Alvin Kamara leads the Saints with 550 yards rushing. However, Kamara has been a massive disappointment in 2022 through a combination of poor blocking, improper usage, and his own questionable effort. He's run for over 50 yards just once in the last seven games and has scored in only one game this season. His production as a receiver (51 catches, 433 yards) is just as disappointing.
A dynamic all-purpose threat, Kamara can beat defenses in multiple ways. Getting him involved early, something the Saints have often failed to do, opens up the entire offense.
New Orleans Saints Taysom Hill (7) runs for a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY
The versatile Taysom Hill is second on the team with 419 yards on the ground and has a team-high five rushing touchdowns. Hill is a bruising runner who is the offense's best threat between the tackles. He also has breakaway speed in the open field and gives the offense an extra dimension with his throwing ability when behind center.
Mark Ingram, the franchise's all-time leading rusher, is out for the final four games with a knee injury. Veteran David Johnson was signed to the active roster, but the Saints have few options behind Kamara and Hill.
The team’s struggles on the ground can't all be blamed on Kamara. Their offensive line has regularly lost battles up front over the second half of the year. Tackles Ryan Ramczyk and James Hurst have been inconsistent along the edge. Third-year RG Cesar Ruiz is the team’s most improved player, but has moved to center because of an injury to Erik McCoy. Guard Andrus Peat has played below expectations, and Calvin Throckmorton hasn't been as good as he was in 2021 as an injury replacement.
Kamara has elite vision, but the line simply hasn’t opened up cutback lanes for him. They've also failed to get consistent push at the point of attack to get their runners to the second level.
Falcons Run Defense
- 24 points per game (22nd)
- 129.5 rushing yards/game (25th)
- 4.4 per rush (15th)
- 12 rushing touchdowns (13th)
- 48 tackles for loss
- 47.4% 3rd Down Percentage (30th)
Jan 9, 2022; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) is tackled by Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell (24) and safety Richie Grant (27). Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY
An undermanned Atlanta defense has gotten steamrolled by opponents most of the year. Four opposing runners have had 100-yard days against them, with three more eclipsing 70 yards. They've surrendered an average of 164 yards on the ground in their last six contests.
The Falcons run a 3-4 base defense, but are extremely thin along the front line. Eighth-year lineman Grady Jarrett is a dominant player who regularly defeats double-team blocking. However, he's gotten little help up front from Matt Dickerson, Abdullah Anderson, Jalen Dalton, or Jaleel Johnson.
The failure of the defensive line to defeat blockers has exposed an otherwise promising linebacker unit. Outside linebackers Lorenzo Carter, Arnold Ebikete, and Adetokunbo Ogundeji are better pass rushers than run defenders. They're good in pursuit but have struggled when engaging run blockers along the edge.
New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram II (22) is tackled by Atlanta Falcons linebacker Mykal Walker (3). Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Rashaan Evans, Mykal Walker, and rookie Troy Andersen form a trio of active inside linebackers. Evans and Walker each have over 100 tackles to lead the defense and have a combined nine stops for loss. Both are instinctive players who sift through traffic effectively to the ball.
Richie Grant, Jaylinn Hawkins, and Eric Harris are physical safeties. However, all three have been guilty of getting caught out of position and aren't terribly athletic in space. The similar is true about corners A.J. Terrell and Isaiah Oliver in run support along the outside.
What to Expect
Nov 7, 2021; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) jumps hits a hole against the Atlanta Falcons. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints rushed for 151 yards against the Falcons in a win on opening week, even while throwing heavily in overcoming a 16-point fourth quarter deficit. Taysom Hill, who had 81 yards rushing, bolstered that total with a 57-yard run. However, New Orleans still averaged over five yards per carry outside of that play.
Atlanta has a hard time dealing with the physical play of Hill. In his last six games against the Falcons, two as a starting quarterback, Hill has 268 yards rushing and five scores despite limited snaps.
Alvin Kamara has been contained fairly well by the Falcons as a receiver throughout his career. Kamara has had better success against them on the ground. He's averaging 73 yards rushing in his last eight full games against Atlanta, including a 146-yard performance in last year's season finale.
The Saints would be wise to get Kamara into a rhythm early on Sunday. Look for New Orleans to try and establish early control with their offensive line to try and wear down the Atlanta front. The Saints like to attack opponents off-tackle, where the Falcons run defense is weakest. If they can pin Atlanta's linebackers inside, or open up cutback lanes for Kamara and Hill, then they should have the offensive success that's eluded them over the last month.
