Saints vs. Broncos: Key Matchups
The 8-2 New Orleans Saints travel to the Mile-High City this afternoon to take on the 4-6 Denver Broncos. New Orleans is looking for its eighth consecutive victory and to stay on top of both the NFC South and the conference. The Broncos are coming off a win against Miami last week that snapped a two-game losing streak and are looking to stay in contention in the AFC playoff race.
Both teams will have their depth tested this afternoon. The Saints will be without LT Terron Armstead after a positive COVID test and LG Andrus Peat, who is out with a concussion. They will again start Taysom Hill at quarterback in place of the injured Drew Brees. Denver's quarterback situation is far more dire. None of the Broncos four quarterbacks on their roster are eligible to play in this game because of COVID-19 restrictions. They will start a practice squad wide receiver named Kendall Hinton at quarterback, with RB Royce Freeman as the emergency reserve.
With each team playing with a shuffled lineup, here are some matchups to watch closest in this Mile High showdown.
CAM JORDAN vs. DEMAR DOTSON
Nov 5, 2017; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) is blocked by Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive tackle Demar Dotson (69) in the second half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints won, 30-10. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY
Kendall Hinton, or whoever plays quarterback for the Broncos, will need time to throw when Denver passes the ball against a New Orleans defense among the league leaders with 32 sacks and 70 QB hits. The Saints bring pressure from every direction, but the focus today should be on the right side of the Denver offensive line, where guard Graham Glasgow and tackle Demar Dotson are banged up and have not played consistently this season.
This is Dotson's first season with the Broncos after playing ten years with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While there, his Buccaneers played the Saints twice each season, with Dotson having little success. In eleven career matchups against Dotson, Cam Jordan has 11 sacks, 18 QB hits, and 7 tackles for loss.
ALVIN KAMARA vs. ALEXANDER JOHNSON/JOSEY JEWELL/MARK BARRON
Nov 1, 2020; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) is tackled by Chicago Bears inside linebacker Danny Trevathan (59) during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY
Kamara's torrid pace to be just the fourth player in NFL history to have 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season has cooled off in recent weeks. He still leads the Saints with 531 yards rushing and 8 touchdowns and leads all NFL running backs with 67 receptions for 648 yards and four scores. The Saints will take on a Denver defense that ranks 19th against the run, giving up an average of 121.5 yards per game and 4.3 per carry. I expect a heavy dose of Kamara, Latavius Murray, and Taysom Hill as the Saints attempt to establish balance early in the game. Kamara could have the biggest advantage of the three against the Denver linebackers.
Alexander Johnson and Josey Jewell have outstanding gap recognition and are the leading tacklers for the Broncos, but both players have been athletically limited. Even with the activation of the versatile Mark Barron from injured reserve, Alvin Kamara presents a significant mismatch on the edge and as a pass receiver against these Denver linebackers. Kamara was not targeted in the passing game during last week's win over the Falcons. That will change today.
SAINTS LINEBACKERS vs. BRONCOS BACKFIELD
Sep 27, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints linebacker Demario Davis (56) against the Green Bay Packers during the first quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY
Denver's 14th ranked rush offense averages 115 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. If they have any chance at winning this game, they must do better than that against a New Orleans run defense that gives up only 74 yards per game and ranks second in the NFL. The Broncos passing attack should not be ignored regardless of who plays quarterback because of receiving weapons like Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, Tim Patrick, and TE Noah Fant. But the Saints must eliminate the Broncos running attack to force the inexperienced Kendall Hinton to make plays against them through the air.
Melvin Gordon leads the Broncos with 523 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Philip Lindsay is a proven 1,000 yard rusher that has 394 yards in five games this season. Hinton was an athletic two-way threat at quarterback early in his collegiate career at Wake Forest. I also expect the Broncos to use Jeudy and Hamler out of the backfield and on end-around plays to take advantage of their open field running ability.
Demario Davis is having another All-Pro campaign and is not only leading the Saints in tackles, but is a terror on opposing backfields. The addition of Kwon Alexander, combined with Alex Anzalone, gives New Orleans the most athletic trio of linebackers they've had since the turn of the century. The Saints must win battles along the line of scrimmage to stop the run, but these three linebackers must make plays in the gaps as well as maintaining discipline against misdirection plays.
JAMES HURST/NICK EASTON vs. BRADLEY CHUBB/DRE’MONT JONES
Sep 27, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints center Erik McCoy (78) and center Nick Easton (62) block against the Green Bay Packers during the second half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY
The Saints have allowed only 16 sacks this season, but will be without both starters on their left side. Guard Nick Easton has been a valuable and versatile contributor who’s played well at both guard spots this season. Hurst has starting experience with the Ravens and has been a powerful run blocker used as an extra lineman on jumbo packages for the Saints, but has struggled with speed rushers when filling in at tackle.
Dre’Mont Jones is a big-bodied defender explosive off the snap, while Chubb leads the Broncos with 6.5 sacks, 27 pressures, and 8 tackles for loss. The Saints must be able to establish their running game, but more importantly give the inexperienced Taysom Hill time to throw.
PLAYER TO WATCH: TAYSOM HILL
Nov 22, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) runs as Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (97) pursues during the second quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY
© Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
My key to this game will be Taysom Hill. He faces a Denver defense that’s much better than the Falcons defense he had success against last week. Broncos coach Vic Fangio and defensive coordinator Ed Donatell are going to throw a variety of exotic blitzes and coverages against Hill and the New Orleans passing game. Hill must good decisions and make them fast against a Denver defense that made an equally inexperienced quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa look foolish last week.
This is just the 12th meeting between the Saints and Broncos, with Denver holding a 9-2 advantage in the series. New Orleans is 0-3 against the Broncos since Sean Payton took over the franchise in 2006. The last meeting between these two was on November 13, 2016, in New Orleans, resulting in a controversial 25-23 Broncos victory. The last time these two played in Denver was on October 28, 2012, resulting in a 34-14 win for the Broncos.
The city of Denver has been a House of Horrors for the Saints, who have just a 1-5 all-time record in The Mile-High City. Their only victory was on December 24, 1994, when New Orleans got 343 yards passing and three touchdowns from QB Jim Everett in a 30-28 defeat of a Broncos team without John Elway. The Broncos may wish the 60-Yr old Elway, now president of the team, could come down from the press box for this one.
PREDICTION:
SAINTS - 32 BRONCOS - 10
