Saints Season Comes Down to 10 Games
The Saints are going to get back to work this week, hoping that the 'mini-bye' allows them to get themselves in the right head space and work towards correcting things when they take on the Colts in Indianapolis on Sunday. New Orleans is a team that seemingly has a lot of offensive issues, and in the same breath knows they could just as easily be 5-2 or 6-1 right now if things went their way. However, they are what their record says at 3-4.
The biggest thing is, will this thinking work or will it bite them at the end of the day? The keep doing what you're doing approach and hoping it comes together strategy has 10 games left in its season. Hope is not really a valid business strategy, however. The bottom line is, New Orleans has to win a minimum of six out of the final 10 games on their schedule. Realistically, they need to hit seven.
Mathematically, the belief and saying is there's a lot of football left, but that was also the thought process last season.
Going 9-8 with a fairly competitive division that sees the Falcons on top might not go in the Saints favor, but if they can stack wins that count in the NFC South and improve from 1-1 in the division, then it could work out. The safest bet is to go 10-7 right now. The way the NFC is stacking up, Philadelphia and San Francisco are on top, with Detroit looking to control the NFC North. Wild card team favorites include the Cowboys and Seahawks, and as of right now, the Bucs would be in if the playoffs started today.
Anything less than the postseason this year for the Saints is a massive failure and should prompt major change, and there's no other way to put it. The opportunities have been there for Dennis Allen and company, but they haven't been able to deliver this season. Pete Carmichael Jr. is on the hot seat, but it doesn't stop there. Derek Carr has to be better and play better.
Saints Offensive Struggles
The two biggest eyesores for the Saints offense right now are in the red zone (37.5%) and 3rd Down (34.26%). That ranks 25th and T-28th in the NFL right now. What's maddening is how well they are doing defensively, as they have the second best 3rd Down unit in the league at 30.53%. The defense has done its job for nearly three seasons, and the offense has to catch up.
New Orleans is averaging 19 points/game, and there's 11 teams that are worse than they are right now in that category. Here's where they rank in every other statistical area.
- Total Yards/Game: 326.0 (17)
- Total Yards/Play: 4.62 (28)
- Rushing Yards/Game: 98.1 (22)
- Rushing Yards/Play: 3.45 (28)
- Passing Yards/Game: 227.9 (11)
- Passing Yards/Play: 5.80 (25)
- Interception Rate: 1.82% (10)
- Sacks/Pass Attempt: 7.27% (19)
- First Downs/Game: 19.3 (18)
- Return Average - Punting: 18.3 (2)
- Return Average - Kicking: 20.4 (23)
- Field Goals Made: 80.00% (24)
- 3rd Down: 34.26% (25)
- 4th Down: 54.55% (15)
- Red Zone: 37.50% (28t)
- Goal to Go: 54.55% (26)
- Time of Possession: 32:09 (6)
It's glaringly obvious, but the lack of communication, execution, pre-snap issues, and other miscues are hurting this team. Again, if they're converting even just half of their red zone attempts, then this is a completely different story for the Saints. We looked at the red zone struggles last week, and they're currently 9/24 for the season after going 2/5 against the Jaguars.
REMAINING GAMES FOR THE SAINTS: at IND, vs. CHI, at MIN, BYE, at ATL, vs. DET, vs. CAR, vs. NYG, at LAR, at TB, vs. ATL
What if they put out the same product on Sunday? Will it prompt a quarterback change? What if the offense continues to struggle on 3rd Down and in the red zone? Will it actually lead to a play caller change? What if the Saints put the offense together? How long will it last? What if the Saints can't win any of these next three favorable games? Will we see major changes?
The Saints are gambling with a lot of 'what if' things right now, and it's either going to work or not. If it works, then will these issues actually be fixed for good, or will they rear its ugly head in the postseason? If it doesn't work, then everyone should expect moves made in the front office and beyond to compensate for a third consecutive missed postseason.
It's time for the real New Orleans Saints team to enter the picture, and whatever version that looks like will reveal itself very quickly. The Jekyll and Hyde has to go.
