Unnecessary? Perhaps, But Julio Jones Would Inarguably Improve Seahawks' Super Bowl Chances
In the wake of the Seahawks' reported interest in Falcons receiver Julio Jones, a divide has been created within the team's social media following. Over the past 48 hours or so, online debates have raged on about whether or not Seattle should target the five-time All-Pro. Surprisingly, despite Jones's extraordinary accomplishments, the answer has been a resounding "no" from the majority.
It's not hard to understand why; there are several obvious cons to a potential trade, namely the likely cost of acquisition and the team's limited resources both this year and next. Additionally, the Seahawks have already poured a ton into their receiving corps this offseason, spending their top draft pick on Western Michigan's D'Wayne Eskridge and doling out a massive contract extension to veteran Tyler Lockett. DK Metcalf is also going to be in line for an expensive new contract when he becomes eligible for negotiations next offseason, which complicates things further. And above all else, Jones's $15.3 million cap hit in 2021 would require financial maneuverings Seattle has shown an unwillingness to partake in.
Per OverTheCap.com, the Seahawks have roughly $7.25 million in salary cap space as of this writing. Adding Jones to the payroll would almost certainly require the team to restructure one of Russell Wilson or Bobby Wagner's contracts. If that's the case, the likeliest of the two would be Wilson, who was mentioned to be in contact with Jones in Dianna Russini's initial report on Sunday.
Wilson, of course, made headlines this offseason for his publicly-aired frustrations towards Seattle's upper management. Grievances included an alleged lack of involvement in the team's personnel decisions, wanting a situation more akin to that of Tom Brady's in Tampa.
It's no secret Wilson views himself in a similar light as Brady, whose Buccaneers brought in the likes of tight end Rob Gronkowski and receiver Antonio Brown to appease their future Hall of Fame quarterback in 2020. Wilson heavily campaigned for the Seahawks to sign Brown, only to see the controversial wideout go on to win a championship with Brady and the Bucs in February. Meanwhile, Seattle's offense faltered to the tune of an early playoff exit, due in part to a lack of a dependable tertiary receiving option behind the star duo of Lockett and DK Metcalf.
Such frustrations have been put to rest, at least for now. From congratulatory posts on Twitter to secondhand accounts from those close to him, Wilson appears pleased by the Seahawks' offensive overhaul this offseason, which includes the noteworthy arrivals of Eskridge, veteran right guard Gabe Jackson, tight end Gerald Everett, and new play-caller Shane Waldron. That's not to mention Lockett's extension and the return of running back Chris Carson, both of which Wilson openly shared his excitement for.
But his reported communication with Jones about the possibility of teaming up suggests he thinks more can be done. And he may have a point; Seattle hasn't added any NFL experience to its receiving corps this offseason. Its biggest additions at the position - Eskridge, Cade Johnson, Tamorrion Terry, Connor Wedington - are all rookies.
This isn't a knock on Eskridge or any of those players, but there's a lot of projection in this group—even with a second-year player like Freddie Swain. Is this to say receiver is a big need on the Seahawks' roster and their season is doomed if they don't reel in Jones? No, far from it. But is it a stretch to say they could stand to get better at the spot, or that the depth they have shouldn't inhibit them from trading for a superstar talent? Also no.
At the age of 32, Jones is still one of the game's top pass-catchers. Despite missing nearly half of the 2020 season with a lingering hamstring strain, he still managed to put up 771 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 51 receptions for a bad Falcons team. His yards-per-reception average of 15.2 was the 16th-best mark in the NFL, bested by his seventh-place finish in yards-per-game (85.7).
Aside from the seven games he missed last year, staying healthy hasn't been a problem for Jones. Since missing the majority of the 2013 season, he's been active for all but three games—excluding 2020, of course.
His ability to line up anywhere on the field would be an excellent asset in Waldron's scheme, which is already expected to rotate receivers like Eskridge and Lockett on the inside and outside. What Jones could give the Seahawks out of the slot, specifically, would help solve one of their biggest issues last season: winning in the middle of the field. While he's statistically never been a major earner after the catch, his combination of surgical route running and a 6-foot-3, 220-pound frame makes him a devastating weapon to deploy in between the hash marks.
Pairing that with the quartet of Metcalf, Lockett, Eskridge, and Everett would give Wilson the offensive arsenal of his dreams. But dreams are often times just that—dreams. Jones would be a marvelous get for general manager John Schneider and company, sure, but the likelihood of a deal actually coming together feels slim.
When it comes to the capital it would take to land Jones in a trade, the Seahawks would be faced with essentially punting away a second draft in a row. Already without their first-round pick in 2022, dealt to the Jets in last summer's Jamal Adams trade, they'd almost certainly have to part with their second-rounder, a day three selection, and possibly a player as well.
Of the three Jones trades Seahawk Maven's Corbin Smith theorized on Tuesday, the one that best fit the above description has Seattle dealing its 2022 second and sixth-round picks to Atlanta, along with second-year defensive end Alton Robinson. That's probably the best realistic offer Schneider could bring to the table for Jones, trading his best draft asset in 2022 with a controllable player from a position of considerable depth.
What the Seahawks won't be able to accomplish is being selective with that depth and dealing the most convenient player - or players - to let go. Players such as defensive end Rasheem Green and running back Rashaad Penny will be of little-to-no interest to a rebuilding Falcons team, unless as pure throw-ins, considering their respective contracts expire in a year's time.
As for the picks, something to keep in mind here is the nature of the 2022 NFL Draft. The Seahawks were comfortable in dealing the majority of their 2021 capital due to the uncertainty shrouding last year's college football season, which saw many prospects opting out over COVID-19 concerns, conferences cancelling or postponing seasons, and teams playing uneven schedules. With vaccine rates rising and COVID-19 cases going down in the United States, college football is expected to go off without a hitch this fall. If so, that means a relatively normal draft process is in order next year.
Because of this, the Seahawks were unwilling to part with any of their future picks to acquire more capital this year. So it stands to reason they may be hesitant to do so now, even for a player of Jones's caliber.
Making things even more complicated is the possibility of Jones wanting a new contract from the team that eventually trades for him. This could potentially work in the Seahawks' favor in the short-term, however, allowing them to lower his cap hit in 2021. But it would also require a longer term commitment with increasing dollar amounts to a player that'll be 33 years old shortly after the season's conclusion. With a lucrative Metcalf extension coming down the pipeline - one that could see him make north of $20 million per year depending on his upcoming season - and Lockett set to generate cap hits of $16 million and up over the final three years of his freshly signed extension, Jones could put Seattle in a financial bind. That's a lot of future money tied to three players, let alone at the same position.
That said, the NFL is ever-changing and should be treated on a year-to-year basis to a certain degree, especially by teams with Super Bowl aspirations like the Seahawks. With substantial increases to the salary cap expected in each of the next 10 years, potential financial issues may prove to be overblown. While it's a smart practice to keep the next five years in mind, taking the long-term risk for the short-term gain can also pay off in its own right. Yes, Jones wouldn't guarantee Seattle its second championship, but he would maximize its chances tenfold.
Would it be more beneficial to the Seahawks to use their resources on a player like Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore, for example? Yeah, probably. Gilmore, specifically, fills a much bigger need and would give Seattle a potentially elite defensive backfield.
Jones is a luxury in its purest form, but isn't that what teams like the Seahawks should be looking for at this stage in their championship window? If they don't win a Super Bowl this year, does drama revolving around Wilson crop up again and get to the point of no return?
As they currently stand, the Seahawks' hopes of hoisting another Lombardi Trophy live and die by Wilson's hand. Capitalizing on this opportunity while they have it, whatever that takes, should be of the utmost importance to them in the arms race that is the NFC West.
