Making the Case For Seattle Seahawks Staying Put With 16th Pick of 2024 NFL Draft

With only two picks in the top 100, everyone expects the Seattle Seahawks to trade down in the first round on Thursday. But history may present a cautionary tale against such a move.

Just four days away from the start of the 2024 NFL Draft in Detroit, Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider likely has already been working the phones dangling the team's 16th overall selection with hopes of recouping at least one day two selection in a trade down.

Earning a much-deserved reputation over the years for his penchant for moving up and down the draft board, Schneider has orchestrated a whopping 34 draft weekend deals in his previous 14 seasons calling the shots for Seattle. While he only made one trade last year, the team had two first-round picks and two second-round picks courtesy of the blockbuster Russell Wilson trade, which provided less incentive to trade down than previous drafts.

Based on past precedent, nobody will be surprised if Schneider swings at least one deal on Thursday night, especially with the Seahawks having only two picks in the top 100 and no second round pick after acquiring defensive tackle Leonard Williams before the trade deadline in October. But while he could have his choice of trade down options in this year's class, prior results may lead him to pause before executing such a move this time around.

Selected after a first round trade down, Bruce Irvin wound up being one of the few success stories for the Seahawks after such a move in the John Schneider era.

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Dating back to Schneider's arrival as a tandem with then-coach Pete Carroll, Seattle has traded down in the first round seven times, including dealing with Green Bay to slide down to No. 27 overall before selecting running back Rashaad Penny in 2018. On two occasions, the organization traded down twice to move out of the first round entirely, moving down one more time before infamously selecting Michigan State defensive tackle Malik McDowell in 2017 and trading down three times total from No. 21 overall in 2019 before picking safety Marquise Blair.

Looking back at those six trade downs, Schneider's most successful happened to be his first one way back in 2012. Originally holding the 12th overall pick, the Seahawks acquired the 15th pick and a pair of day three selections from the Eagles to move down three spots, choosing edge rusher Bruce Irvin moments later when they were back on the clock.

While critics of the selection emerged like a large angry mob with pitchforks, Irvin ended up silencing his doubters, recording eight sacks as a rookie and turning in a stellar career with 344 tackles, 56.5 sacks, and three interceptions. Proving himself as one of the better value first round picks in that draft class, he had three stints with Seattle and helped the team make back-to-back Super Bowls in 2013 and 2014.

But after Irvin, Schneider has mostly swung and missed when trading down in the first round. Two years later, in the aftermath of winning Super Bowl XLVIII, the Seahawks wanted to turn their 32nd overall pick into extra draft ammunition. After sliding down to pick 40, the team made a second trade down to pick 45, selecting speedy Colorado receiver Paul Richardson to pair with Doug Baldwin, Percy Harvin, and Jermaine Kearse.

Unfortunately, Richardson battled injuries throughout his four seasons in Seattle, including playing in just one game in 2015 with a single catch. Though he did enjoy a bit of a breakout with 703 yards and six touchdowns in 2017, he left to join Washington as a free agent and only caught more than 30 passes one time with the franchise, hardly living up to his selection.

Over the next four years, Schneider traded down in the first round five times, selecting tackle Germain Ifedi in 2016, McDowell in 2017, Penny in 2018, and Blair in 2019 with Seattle's first selection in each of those drafts.

From that quartet, Penny flashed the most talent when he actually played, including leading the NFL in rushing yards, yards per carry, and touchdowns over the final six weeks of the 2021 season. But he missed 40 games in five seasons with the Seahawks and never could out-run the injury bug, which prevented him from reaching his immense potential and turned his selection into a dud for Schneider.

Similarly, Blair never came close to fulfilling his promise either due to injuries, playing in just 22 games in three seasons with the Seahawks and producing 49 tackles and a tackle for loss. Whiffing on that pick was the first domino to fall that led to Schneider trading two first round picks to the Jets for Jamal Adams, a trade that unfortunately blew up in his face with the veteran battling his own injuries.

Unlike Penny and Blair, Ifedi proved to be durable, starting 60 games at right guard and right tackle for Seattle from 2016 to 2019. But over the course of his four seasons with the franchise, he struggled mightily with penalties, drawing 53 penalties during that span. He also had his issues in pass protection, surrendering 23 sacks and 177 pressures per Pro Football Focus, leading to the team opting to decline his fifth-year option and not re-sign him.

No first round trade down backfired more than 2017, however. Signing off on three trades before finally picking McDowell, the mercurial talent suffered serious injuries in an offseason ATV accident and didn't even participate in a training camp practice with the Seahawks before being waived in July 2018 with a non-football injury designation. Though he played one season for the Browns in 2021, continued off-field problems have kept him out of the league since.

Holistically, none of the players drafted by the Seahawks after a first round trade down under Schneider's watch have earned All-Pro or Pro Bowl recognition. According to Pro Football Reference, those six players, even with Irvin in the mix, combined to post an Approximate Value of 86, an average of 14.3 per player.

In comparison, when Schneider has opted to stick and pick rather than trade down, Seattle has found far more consistent success acquiring quality talent. In his first draft, without making any trades, he selected tackle Russell Okung and safety Earl Thomas in the top 15 selections and both players became key contributors to the Super Bowl runs only a few years later while also earning Pro Bowl nods.

Due to trades for Harvin and tight end Jimmy Graham, the Seahawks didn't have a first round pick in the 2013 or 2015 drafts, and then Schneider traded down in the first round in the three drafts that followed. But since 2019, maybe as a sign he learned from past missteps, he hasn't made a single trade down in the first round over a five-draft span.

Among the first round picks selected by Seattle in that time frame, linebacker Jordyn Brooks became a solid starter with over 500 tackles and 23 tackles for loss in four seasons with the team before leaving for Miami as a free agent in March. In the past two years, Schneider snagged a quality left tackle in Charles Cross as well as dynamic cornerback Devon Witherspoon and savvy receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who all look poised to be foundational pieces for the franchise moving forward.

With Cross, Witherspoon, and Njigba all being early in their respective careers, it's too early to tell how much of an impact those three players will have on the Seahawks trajectory in coming years with a new coach in Mike Macdonald in charge. But Witherspoon already has a Pro Bowl on his resume, while Smith-Njigba ended his rookie season on a tear and Cross has flashed potential as a possible top-10 blind side protector with improved consistency.

To put the far greater success of Schneider's recent first round picks in perspective, Brooks, Cross, Witherspoon, and Smith-Njigba have combined for an Approximate Value of 51 with only 125 regular season games between them. All six players drafted after trade downs had a total AV of 84 in 366 regular season games among them.

When adding Okung, Thomas, and 2011 first round pick James Carpenter, who overcame a rough start to his career to start in a Super Bowl, to the equation, Seattle's first round selections made with native selections have produced an Approximate Value of 209 with three Pro Bowlers netted from those picks. In time, those numbers should skyrocket with Cross, Witherspoon, and Smith-Njigba all set to be impact players moving forward.

What do those stark contrasts in results mean for Schneider and the Seahawks heading towards the 2024 NFL Draft? Context matters and in recent years, the team hasn't needed to be as active in the trade down market because they have had a top-10 pick twice from the Broncos and were able to land a blue chip talent in each instance.

Not picking until No. 16 this year in a class loaded with receiver and tackle talent and seeking additional day two selections, Schneider wisely will field as many offers as he can leading up to when they are on the clock. If a team blows him away with an offer he can't refuse and there isn't a prospect available on the board who he feels Seattle must take, trading down would be the right move.

But if the Seahawks have an opportunity to land a difference maker who they view as an immediate starter and excellent scheme fit, history provides no shortage of evidence that Schneider should stick and pick. More times than not, at least in the first round, quality has been far more successful than acquiring quantity for the franchise, and those prior lessons should be considered carefully before deciding to slide down for extra picks.