Seahawks Offense: What Went Wrong, Lessons Learned in Losses to 49ers
Looking to avenge two regular season losses to their hated NFC West rivals, the Seattle Seahawks will travel to Santa Clara with hopes of pulling an upset against the heavily-favored San Francisco 49ers in a wild card round rematch on Saturday.
In the two prior defeats, Seattle looked overmatched on both sides of the football against one of the NFC's best teams, losing 27-7 in Week 2 and falling short 21-13 at home on Thursday Night Football last month. This was particularly evident on offense, as quarterback Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, and company struggled to find much traction moving the ball and sustaining drives, scoring only 13 combined points in eight quarters of play against the league's top scoring defense.
Preparing for what coach Pete Carroll called a "chess match" between two familiar foes, what went wrong for the Seahawks on offense in the first two games against the 49ers? And what lessons can they apply to the upcoming playoff game to help them potentially pull off the upset as underdogs at Levis Stadium?
1. Negative plays on early downs led to poor third down efficiency and a wide time of possession discrepancy.
What Went Wrong: Unfortunately, struggles staying on schedule and moving the chains have been a lingering problem for the Seahawks over the past couple of months, playing a critical role in their free fall from 6-3 to nearly missing the playoffs. Those chronic issues have only been magnified against a defense as talented and well-coached as the 49ers, who have been able to consistently create havoc in the backfield and force Smith and company into difficult third down situations.
According to Pro Football Reference, in each loss to San Francisco, Seattle had at least 14 plays on first and second down resulting in zero/negative yards or a turnover. In the first matchup in Santa Clara in Week 2, Smith and running back DeeJay Dallas threw a pair of ugly interceptions on early downs. While neither play led to points for the opposition, the latter throw happened in the red zone on a trick play, erasing at least three points off the scoreboard before halftime. Rashaad Penny and Ken Walker III also were stuffed for no gain or lost yardage on five carries. Interestingly, their average third down to go yardage was 6.7, the third-lowest average in the first eight games of the season, but they still only converted two of those chances into a new set of downs and consequently lost the time of possession battle by nearly 17 minutes.
More recently at Lumen Field in Week 15, the Seahawks had 16 early down snaps that resulted in zero/negative yards or a turnover. 15 of those plays came via the pass, as Smith threw 44 times in that game with the run game being a non-factor. The veteran quarterback took a pair of sacks, threw 10 incomplete passes, and completed a pair of throws to Walker and Noah Fant that resulted in lost yardage. As a result, coupled with penalties, the team faced an average of 10.6 yards to gain on 13 third down opportunities, easily their worst average of the season. Somehow, they actually converted four of those opportunities into a first down, with three conversions coming after halftime.
Lessons Learned: Facing a loaded defense with talent at all three levels, the Seahawks can't afford to be one dimensional and need to manufacture a balanced offensive attack to find greater success picking up positive yards on early downs and stay on schedule. After rushing a grand total of 14 times in each of the first two games between these bitter rivals, Carroll will want to establish the run as a means to find that balance. However, that's easier said than done against a defense that ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and first in yards per carry.
With that said, Seattle will be going into this rematch riding a bit of a hot streak on the ground after a lengthy midseason swoon. Running more decisively behind an offensive line that has found its groove as of late, Walker has surpassed 100 rushing yards in each of the past three games, including torching a very good New York Jets defense for 133 yards in Week 17. Part of that success has boiled down to a more diverse blend of zone and gap concepts, including a near 50/50 split against the Rams in the season finale. Mixing schemes up will be critical to keep San Francisco's front line on its heels and avoid tackles for loss, creating a complementary ground game to make life easier for Smith.
2. Nick Bosa and a fearsome front seven feasted on the Seahawks young, inexperienced offensive line.
What Went Wrong: With two rookie starters at the tackle position, nobody should have been surprised Bosa found great success rushing against Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. The All-Pro edge rusher regularly dominates the best tackles in the NFL, so there's no shame in losing individual battles to a player of that talent level. Sure enough, he produced 13 pressures, 3.0 sacks, and five quarterback hits in the two previous matchups, and those numbers would have been even better if not for a questionable roughing the passer call in Week 15 that negated a pick-six.
But Bosa wasn't the only San Francisco defender who gave Seattle's offensive line fits and turned up the heat on Smith. Back in Week 2, right guard Gabe Jackson surrendered a whopping seven pressures from the interior and left guard Phil Haynes yielded a sack and two pressures in relief of an injured Damien Lewis. Surprisingly, standout defensive tackle Arik Armstead didn't do any of the damage, as former Seahawk Kerry Hyder and Charles Omenihu caused major problems reduced inside in pass rushing situations instead, combining for six total pressures.
Fast forwarding to the second contest in Seattle, the 49ers received far greater contributions from Armstead, who produced five pressures pursuing Smith from the interior. Meanwhile, Samson Ebukam produced three pressures and a sack off the edge opposite of Bosa and safety Talanoa Hufanga got into the act coming untouched on a blitz to blow up Smith for a sack of his own. Cross and Lucas endured their worst games as rookies, combining to give up seven pressures and three sacks, while Jackson once again struggled giving up three pressures.
Lessons Learned: Simply put, the 49ers have a ferocious pass rush led by a top-five player in Bosa who is capable of destroying game plans on his own. When facing a team with so many disruptive assets capable of applying persistent pressure on the quarterback, solutions to mitigate the pass rush can be difficult to unearth while maintaining an effective offense, especially when running the football has been equally challenging against them.
Many teams would turn to the screen game to try and slow down the rush, but the Seahawks have been abysmal running all types of screens this season, averaging 2.9 yards per attempt in 2022. Instead, they will have to turn to other avenues, including continuing a recent trend of subbing in a sixth offensive lineman such as Jake Curhan to provide support for Cross and Lucas in pass protection and the run game against Bosa, Ebukam, and others. Backs will likely have to be kept in the pocket more frequently to help pick up interior rushers and handle blitzes as well.
In addition, getting to the ball to Fant and Colby Parkinson in the quick passing game would also be beneficial for Smith to take the rush out of the equation. Seattle shockingly received only four catches for 11 yards from tight ends in the first matchup in September and mystifyingly didn't seem to prioritize them as part of the game plan. A late touchdown down the seam to Fant in Week 15 suggests Waldron will place more emphasis on getting them involved in round three.
3. Killer turnovers in crucial moments created momentum swings Seattle couldn't overcome.
What Went Wrong: Beating a superior team in the NFL is already difficult without committing self-inflicted mistakes, but the Seahawks further complicated matters against the 49ers earlier this season by shooting themselves in the foot on offense. Not all turnovers are created equal and unfortunately, they picked the worst times to hand the ball back to the other team in both contests.
As aforementioned, Seattle tried to get cute in the second quarter in the first game in Week 2. After Smith hooked up with Tyler Lockett for a 27-yard completion down to the San Francisco 13-yard line, coordinator Shane Waldron busted out an old school personnel grouping with four running backs in the backfield and Walker serving as the quarterback. The first play worked well, as the rookie faked a handoff and bounced outside for a five-yard gain. But on the ensuing snap, Dallas took a handoff and then tried to connect with Metcalf in the end zone, only for the throw to come out of his hands like a shot put and land in the hands of cornerback Charvarius Ward for a back-breaking interception. Moments later, Lockett muffed a punt and the 49ers recovered, punching it in from a yard out right before half to take a 20-0 lead.
Then in Week 15, the Seahawks appeared to have some momentum heading towards the break. After a field goal by Myers cut the 49ers lead to 7-3, the defense forced a punt, giving the ball back to the offense to orchestrate a two-minute drill. Already with one first down, Smith dumped off a short pass to running back Travis Homer, who picked up enough yardage to move the chains. But linebacker Dre Greenlaw knocked the ball out of his hands and Ward scooped up the fumble, returning it down to the Seahawks six-yard line. Capping off a crushing sequence of events that ended in at least a seven-point swing, Christian McCaffrey scored from a yard out to extend the lead to 14-3 inside a minute to play in the second quarter.
Things could have been far worse on the turnover front too. Blasted by Bosa on what looked to be a clean hit, Smith was picked off by cornerback Deommodore Lenoir trying to thread the needle to Lockett and the former Oregon standout returned it for a touchdown. Thankfully for Seattle, refs bailed them out by flagging Bosa for roughing the passer, extending the drive and allowing the team to march downfield for a field goal instead.
Lessons Learned: Ball security and possession of the football have always been a central focus in Carroll's philosophy, so there's not necessarily anything new learned on this front. Clearly pressing while dealing with increased pressure from opposing defenses of late, Smith's decision making has not been near as sharp as it was during the first half of the season and he's consequently seen an uptick in interceptions. While he still needs to stay aggressive hunting explosives downfield when the offensive line gives him time, his reads will need to be on point against a familiar foe and he will need to be decisive or they will make him pay. Ball carriers will also have to be hyper-focused on keeping three points of pressure against a defense always looking to pry the ball out.
As for play calling coaching points, Waldron can't let the results of the failed Dallas play curtail him from being willing to dip into his bag of tricks again on Saturday. Teams facing a talent disadvantage can close the gap with well-timed, well-executed trickery, though it would be recommended not to let a running back talk him into throwing the ball this time around. And, most certainly, keep the 40 personnel under the cob webs where it belongs.
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