The NFL Impact of T.J. Hockenson and Danielle Hunter's Contract Negotiations

Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson is due for an extension he heads into the final year of his contract. Same with edge rusher Danielle Hunter, who has held out all offseason and appears ready to demand a trade if Minnesota doesn't give him a satisfactory offer on a new deal.

Those are two very important players for the 2023 Vikings. They're also NFL stars who have every right to maximize their earnings, and the result of ongoing negotiations with both players will ultimately impact the market at their respective positions.

PFF's Brad Spielberger recently named the "most important upcoming contract negotiation at each position," and both Hockenson and Hunter made the list.

At tight end, the Giants' Darren Waller leads the way with an average salary of $17 million. George Kittle is right behind him at $15 million, with three others making at least $14 million per year. Hockenson's camp is presumably pushing for something in the Waller range. Notably, they have some leverage, considering the assets the Vikings gave up to acquire him in a trade last year and how well he played down the stretch.

We’re not setting out to put pressure on Hockenson and his camp or suggest they must view this negotiation the same way, but there’s an argument to be made that Hockenson would be doing his positional peers a disservice if he doesn’t at least surpass George Kittle’s $15 million per year given the added leverage he has following this past season's trade.

Kittle signed his five-year, $75 million extension in 2020, and now three offseasons later his fellow Iowa Hawkeye alum has a golden opportunity to capitalize after he was traded at last year’s deadline. The former No. 8 overall pick could not have been more productive in his half-season with Minnesota, with his 60 targets from Week 9 on ranking second at the position, his 10 contested catches ranking first and his yards after the catch and explosive receptions both ranking in the top 10.

Hockenson isn’t the blocker Kittle is and his production was in large part tied to crazy volume, but he enters 2023 as the clear No. 2 target in a pass-heavy offense that is going to feed him the ball. He should provide the boost to a stagnant position market that deserves to grow at a much faster clip.

As Spielberger mentions, Hockenson's camp is surely pointing to the fact that he is not just a tight end, he's also the No. 2 option in the Vikings' passing game who figures to get fed like a wide receiver this season. The team will also negotiate and try to keep the price down to some extent, but they don't want to lose him in free agency next year, even if it would net a comp pick. Hockenson seems to be a perfect fit in Kevin O'Connell's offense.

With Hunter, it's a complicated situation. There's been drama surrounding his contract for a few years now, all stemming from the five-year $72 million deal he signed way back in 2018 before breaking out as a star. Entering this season, he's set to make just $5.5 million because money was moved up last year, so he's understandably holding out for an extension or trade.

From the Vikings' perspective, they need to decide just how much money they're willing to commit to a player who turns 29 in October and dealt with major injuries in 2020 and '21. Hunter is an elite pass rusher, but with the Vikings getting younger this offseason, it wouldn't be shocking if they ended up trading him and leaning into more of a full rebuild, at least on defense.

The interesting angle here may be more about veteran edge rushers and how the market shapes out for guys still playing at a very high level entering their 30s. Last offseason, Chandler Jones signed a three-year, $51 million deal with the Las Vegas Raiders and Von Miller signed what is effectively a three-year, $52.5 million deal with the Buffalo Bills. Jones was ineffective, and while Miller was his usual game-breaking self to start the year, he tore his ACL. What makes their seasons interesting is the juxtaposition to a lot of other veteran edge rushers who signed far smaller deals but were extremely productive.

Melvin Ingram III, Justin Houston and Jerry Hughes all signed deals for $5 million or less annually in 2022, and all had better pass-rush win rates, pressure rates and sack numbers than Jones by a pretty comfortable margin.

Are the Vikings perhaps wary of making a major investment in an undoubtedly great player, but one who dealt with serious injuries in 2020-21 and, while remarkably still only 29 years old through the 2023 season, is entering the back nine of his NFL career? This deal has a wide range of outcomes and could be a contract that teams or agents — depending on how it shakes out — point to as a reference point and potential inflection point going forward.

It's going to be fascinating to see what ends up happening with Hunter, whose next deal will have ramifications for other edge rushers moving forward.

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