Vikings labeled as a team 'primed for a drop-off' in 2025

Coming off a surprising 14-win season that crashed and burned in the wild card round of the playoffs, the Vikings are a team that will likely be viewed as a major regression candidate in 2025. They were included in a recent article from CBS Sports' Jeff Kerr, which names five teams "primed for a drop-off" in the upcoming NFL season.

Here's what he had to say:

"The biggest surprise in the NFL last season appears to be primed for a drop-off. While Minnesota did win 14 games last season, the Vikings lost their final two games by a combined 40 points. This includes the wild-card playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams, who had a negative point differential last season. Minnesota needs to figure out the quarterback situation, as Sam Darnold is a free agent and J.J. McCarthy is waiting in the wings as the team's first-round pick from a season ago.

If the Vikings go with McCarthy, it's hard to fathom he'll help this team win 14 games in Year 1 as a starter coming off ACL surgery. There's talent on this Minnesota team, but the NFC North has strong teams in it and the conference has too many teams that can win double-digit games. This is the team poised for a drop-off, even if it's a slight one."

The basic reality is that it would be very difficult for the Vikings to win 14 games again this season. That would be true even if they brought back their entire roster, but it'll be especially true in the likely event that Sam Darnold leaves in free agency. Last year was just the third time the Vikings have lost three or fewer times since the schedule expanded to 16 games in 1978 (the other two were in 1998 and 2017). It's an extremely hard thing to do.

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With that said, this is different than the feeling coming off of the 2022 season, when the Vikings were clearly fraudulent as a 13-4 team. They had a -3 point differential that year, so it wasn't surprising when they were labeled a regression candidate and ultimately did regress in a big way, going 7-10 in 2023 (though injuries to Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins also played a role).

The 2024 Vikings had a +100 point differential. They won plenty of one-score games, but they also blew some teams out. They had a dynamic passing game and one of the best defenses in the NFL. Yes, it ended in ugly fashion against the Lions and Rams, but those were very good teams. Even if McCarthy does replace Darnold as the starting QB, which will come with some growing pains for the 22-year-old, the foundation is in place for the Vikings. They've got a roster that is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, as well as the cap space to address their needs in free agency once again this year.

Assuming it's McCarthy, a successful 2025 season will be all about how he plays and whether or not the arrow appears to be pointing upward for a potential championship window to open up in 2026. It also wouldn't be surprising at all to see Kevin O'Connell, Brian Flores, and McCarthy lead the Vikings back to the postseason this year, perhaps as a 10 or 11-win wild card team. McCarthy has been a consistent winner throughout his football career, and he's going to have all kinds of star power surrounding him.

So yes, the Vikings are primed for a drop-off in 2025, but that's not necessarily something to be too concerned about — unless they really take a massive step back.

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