Game 82 for Game 1: Why the Bolts’ Regular Season Finale Decides the Start of the Playoffs

Tampa or Montreal for game one of the Eastern Conference series?

Apr 9, 2026; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Erik Cernak (81) vies for position with Montreal Canadiens forward Juraj Slafkovsky (20) during the second period at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images / Eric Bolte-Imagn Images

With the Buffalo Sabres defeating the Blackhawks, and the Tampa Bay Lightning getting the job done in overtime, the Lightning can no longer win the Atlantic division due to the first tiebreaker, regulation wins.

So, this leaves the Lightning and Canadiens locked into a first round matchup with one thing left to decide for round one, who gets home ice?

How Simple Is It?

The answer is really simple, should the Lightning win, they are second in the Atlantic division and therefore have the home ice advantage over the Canadiens, no matter the result of their game. Should both teams lose, Tampa has home ice, same as if both teams were to go to Overtime and win or lose.

The only way Tampa falls behind the Canadiens is if they finish with less points, it's that simple.

When Will Tampa Know What They Need to Do?

The potential positive here is, the Canadiens play first, Tuesday April 14th, an entire day before the Lightning's 82ns game against the New York Rangers. The Canadiens play the Philadelphia Flyers, who are locked into the third seed in the Metropolitan division, meaning they could rest their guys with their playoff fate already decided.

Should the Canadiens lose in regulation, the Lightning can rest their starters in the finale, otherwise game 82 will have the home ice advantage riding on it.

Canadiens Vs Lightning Matchup History

The Lightning and Canadiens split the season series 2-2, with one of Tampa's victories coming at home by way of the shootout.

Game 1- 6-1 Lightning Victory in Montreal

Game 2- 5-4 S/O Lighting Victory in Tampa

Game 3- 4-1 Canadiens Victory in Tampa

Game 4- 2-1 Canadiens Victory in Montreal

The Lightning are the better team, they score more goals per game, they give up less per game, they have the better penalty kill unit, they have the star advantage, but each time they play the Canadiens it's a hard-fought contest. And it's simply because of the Habs physicality. Their 22 hits per game is 2 more than Tampa, they lead the NHL with 16.3 blocks per game, and are top 5 in penalty minutes and penalties drawn per game (just like Tampa).

The team's matchup well, even though Tampa appears to be the superior team. That's why it is essential for the Bolts to get healthy, and secure home ice at a place they play so well at (Tampa is 26-14 at home).

So, Tampa's opponent is decided, but the location of game one is yet to be determined and game 82 could likely be the deciding factor.

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