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Fantasy Sports

Amon-Ra St. Brown Among the Top Fantasy Football Underdog NFL Prop Picks for Thursday Night Football

Thursday Night Football brings a marquee matchup between the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills, giving fantasy football and prop bettors another opportunity to attack the Underdog slate.
Daniel Outerbridge|
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) runs out onto the field ahead of a game against the New Orleans Saints at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday Sept. 13, 2026.
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) runs out onto the field ahead of a game against the New Orleans Saints at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday Sept. 13, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

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Detroit Lions

Highmark Stadium plays host to a high-octane cross-conference showdown as the Detroit Lions take on the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. Following explosive Week 1 performances, the game carries one of the highest projected totals on the board, offering great targeting opportunities for statistical volume over name recognition.

This Thursday Night Football matchup presents a prime environment for player prop volume due to the high-powered offenses that will be featured in this game. The strongest statistical edges lie in targeting the high-floor receiving options like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, while examining the defensive matchups against efficiency-dependent lines.

Always keep in mind that player prop lines shift dynamically up until kickoff based on injury reports, weather updates, and market action.

Amon-Ra St. Brown/Higher 74.5 Receiving Yards

Week 1 Stats: 10 receptions, 67receiving yards, 14 targets, 2TD

Matchup Metrics: Buffalo's secondary allowed 240+ passing yards to Houston in Week 1; Lions' target share:31%

St. Brown remains the undisputed focal point of the Lions' passing attack, commanding a team-high 14 targets in their victory over the Saints. Operating predominantly out of the slot, St. Brown creates mismatches against nickel coverage and remains Jared Goff's primary safety valve when pressure ramps up. Buffalo's defense relies on two-high safety looks, which opens up intermediate middle-of-the-field routes where St. Brown thrives. St. Brown has cleared this line in six of his last eight regular season games when targeting metrics exceed a 25% target share.

Josh Allen/Higher 248.5 Passing Yards

Week 1 Stats: 20/29 passing, 334 passing yards, 2 passing TDs

Matchup Metrics: Detroit yielded 300 passing yards in Week 1; Buffalo offensive play-calling split: 58% pass

Allen opened his campaign with an efficient 334-yard passing effort against Houston, showing great comfort distributing the ball to a refreshed receiving corps. The Lions' defense boasts a formidable run front anchored by Alim McNeill, which often forces opponents to abandon early-down rushing attempts and lean into air volume. Detroit's aggressive single-high safety coverage scheme exposes downfield passing lanes, particularly off play-action. Expect Allen to drop back 35+ times in a back-and-forth track meet, giving him ample opportunity to eclipse 248.5-yard total.

Jahmyr Gibbs/Higher 72.5 Rushing Yards

Week 1 Stats: 29 carries, 156 rushing yards, 2 TDs; 3 receptions, 30 receiving yards

Matchup Metrics: Buffalo allowed 4.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs in Week 1; Detroit rushing attempt share: 64%

Gibbs dominated backfield touches in Detroit's opener, leading the entire NFL with 29 attempts while racking up 156 yards on the ground. Rather than operating merely as a perimeter or passing-down complement, Gibbs handled primary interior duties and high-value goal-line work, punching in two touchdowns. Buffalo's defense struggled to plug interior gaps in Week 1, allowing nearly 5 yards per carry on early downs. While Detroit's passing attack will be vital, Dan Campbell's offensive identity flows directly through Gibbs establishing the run early. With Detroit feeding him true lead-back volume, clearing 72.5 rushing yards presents one of the highest-floor opportunities on the Thursday night slate.

James Cook/Lower 62.5 Rushing Yards

Week 1 Stats: 13 carries, 57 rushing yards, 0 TDs

Matchup Metrics: Detroit held opponents to under 3.5 yards per carry in Week 1; Ray Davis/Ty Johnson snap share: 38%

Cook managed just 57 yards on 13 carries in Week 1 as the Bills continued its multi-back rotation featuring Davis and Johnson in high-leverage situations. Facing Detroit's defensive front is one of the toughest ground assignments in the NFL, as the Lions consistently rank among the elite in run-stop win rate. Allen's presence in red-zone and short-yardage rushing packages caps Cook's ceiling for extended drive extensions. Unless Cook breaks a huge run, the combination of a shared backfield committee points towards the Lower on his rushing total.

Sam LaPorta/Higher 4.5 Receptions

Week 1 Stats: 5 receptions, 48 receiving yards, 8 targets

Matchup Metrics: Buffalo allowed 6+ receptions to tight ends in Week 1; LaPorta target share: 22%

LaPorta picked up right where he left off, securing 5 catches on 7 targets during Detroit's season opener. Goff's quick-release passing profile heavily relies on LaPorta across third-down conversion attempts. Five receptions represents his baseline operational volume in games projected to stay competitive through four quarters.

Dalton Kincaid/Higher 52.5 Receiving Yards

Week 1 Stats: 5 receptions, 130 receiving yards, 6 targets

Matchup Metrics: Led Bills in receiving yards; 26.0 yards per reception average

Kincaid opened his campaign with an explosive performance against the Texans, hauling in 5 of 6 targets for a team-leading 130 receiving yards. Fully healthy after playing through a knee issue in 2025, Kincaid was utilized as a primary downfield threat. Facing a Detroit defense that prioritizes stopping the run and frequently leaves soft spots over the middle in single-high safety coverage, Kincaid is bound to have another heavy workload. With Allen leaning on him as both a quick-release safety valve and a seam-stretching weapon, clearing 52.5 receiving yards is a strong target based on his high-efficiency usage and route participation.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Daniel Outerbridge
DANIEL OUTERBRIDGE

Daniel Outerbridge covers the NBA, NFL, WNBA, and MLB with an emphasis on the numbers behind the game. His work breaks down player performance, team strategy, and emerging statistical trends to provide actionable insights for fans and fantasy players. Outerbridge has written for a myriad of other outlets including Anubis Sports and FanSided.

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