DraftKings Showdown Cheatsheet for Bengals and Steelers has a Shocking Pick for Captain

The ultimate goal of conducting all this NFL research is to one day claim a life-changing prize by being “right for a day.” Predicting NFL game outcomes is challenging from week to week, let alone connecting multiple pieces of teams to create the best fantasy lineup on any given day.

On Monday night, with 11 minutes and 27 seconds left in the Bears/Commanders game, Jayden Daniels hit Zach Ertz for a six-yard touchdown. My top DFS team in DraftKings Monday Night Special, with $500,000 for first place, jumped to fifth in the standings with four Washington players (Daniels, Ertz, Chris Moore, and Deebo Samuel) and a mix of one Bears player on multiple teams.

To reach the top of the fantasy mountain and grab the golden championship ring, I need to make up about three fantasy points, and that outcome had to come from Deebo Samuel.

On the Bears' ensuing drive, D’Andre Swift had a six-yard run and caught a 55-yard touchdown pass, giving this roster a significant jump in fantasy points. I had the same team with three different defenses (Buffalo, Atlanta, and Washington), with the Falcons D standing tall for the night with 9.0 fantasy points. My team remained about three points from glory, but this roster overlapped with five others.

The Commanders ran five plays on their next drive, but no targets for Samuel. After an empty fantasy possession by the Bears, Washington started their final drive at their own 39-yard line with just over six minutes left in the game and a two-point lead. They ran five plays, with no outcomes dictated to Samuel.

My chance of winning was coming down to a couple of plays. At the Chicago 40-yard line, the Commanders had a fourth and one with 3:10 left in the game. A first down would give me, maybe one chance, at a catch for Washington’s top wide receiver. Unfortunately, Daniels fumbles, giving the Bears’ defense a sack (two fantasy points, tying the Falcons defense).

My team slipped into a tie for eighth place with seven teams (three Bears and four Falcon defenses), leading to a $3,928.57 in winnings. With one more fantasy point and no last sack by the Bears’ defense, this roster would have finished tied for fourth place ($26,250), 1.90 fantasy points away from first and a $150,000 win.

Here's the winning roster that won $500,000, and my team:

Fantasy Football, DraftKings — DraftKings Winning Lineup Week 7 | DraftKings

DraftKings, Fantasy Football — DraftKings Week 6 Lineup | Week 7

The difference-maker on this Monday night slate was Chris Moore (on 2.9% of rosters). In my preview article, I wrote this about Moore:

Moore could be the winning link tonight. He doesn’t have a catch in back-to-back games, but he has had WR2 snaps over the last three games for the Commanders. His last big game (10/124) came in Week 14 in 2022, which shows that he is capable if given targets. The previous year, he popped a 5/109/1 showing out of nowhere. At $3,000, a 3/30/1 outcome would fill his salary bucket.

With some free squares and a good feel for the Washington side of the game, the groundwork was laid to win a big prize.

On Thursday night, the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Cincinnati to play the Bengals. In my Steelers/Bengals game preview article, I included some DraftKings prop lines with player write-ups to highlight their potential value in this matchup.

The Steelers are five-and-a-half-point favorites in this road matchup with a game total of 44.5. Here’s a look at this week’s top skill players:

Quarterbacks

The quarterbacks in this game are almost in a dead heat in salary and expected fantasy points.

Joe Flacco has a much better supporting cast, which has underperformed expectations for most of the first six weeks. Ja’Marr Chase is holding form, while Cincinnati’s offense did look better in the second half last week on the road against Green Bay.

Pittsburgh boasts a better defense, despite allowing over 30 points in its first two games. They rank 18th in fantasy points (120.10) allowed to quarterbacks, while playing one fewer game than most teams behind them in the standings. The Steelers allowed 21 rushes for 105 yards and three touchdowns to quarterbacks on the ground, which will be removed from the equation in this matchup due to Flacco's lack of mobility.

The Bengals can overcome some passing shortfalls by attempting over 40 passes.

The Steelers want to run the ball and slow down the clock, which caps Aaron Rodgers’ passing upside in many games. If Pittsburgh needs to pass, DK Metcalf is the sole star in this offense. Their running backs and tight ends will be their secondary options in the passing game.

For Rodgers to reach a winning fantasy result, he needs at least two touchdowns and close to 250 passing yards. The Bengals rank 29th in quarterback defense.

Running Backs

Over the past two weeks, the Bengals have given Samaje Perine more snaps due to trailing early in both games. They were outscored 59 to 13 over the first three quarters against Denver, Detroit, and Green Bay.

If Cincinnati plays competitively in the first half, Chase Brown should receive an increase in touches. His overall skill set and opportunity should rank higher than both of the Steelers’ top two ball carriers. Perine gains more value in a two-minute offense or if the Bengals chase on the scoreboard late in games.

Fantasy Football, Running Backs, Week 7 — Defense vs. Running Backs | Shawn Child

The Steelers rank fifth in defending running backs (100.90 fantasy points) with a game in hand. Breece Hall (19/107) and Kenneth Walker (13/105/1) rushed for over 100 yards over the first two weeks of the season against them. Pittsburgh stuffed Quinshon Judkins (12/36) last week, but their defense was helped by questionable quarterback play by the Browns.

Jaylen Warren (DK: $8,400)

Warren missed a game in Week 4 due to a knee issue, which should be a factor when building a fantasy roster. Pittsburgh gave him 13 touches last week, leading to 63 combined yards with two catches. His only score came in Week 1 via a pass, and Warren only has seven career touchdowns over 52 games. His pass-catching helps his floor, but finding the endzone is the key to his showdown value in this matchup. Last year, he gained 85 combined yards with four catches on 13 touches in two games vs. the Bengals.

Kenneth Gainwell (DK: $6,400)

After a dominating fantasy game by Kenneth Gainwell (134 combined yards with two touchdowns and six catches on a career-high 25 touches) in Ireland, Pittsburgh didn’t reward him with an increase in playing time vs. the Browns (33 yards and six catches on 12 touches).

Of the two Steelers’ backs, I’m leaning toward Gainwell. He may snipe a goal-line score, and he had more targets (6) in Week 5 than Warren (2). Cincinnati has the worst running back defense, a strong sign that one of Pittsburgh’s backs will land on the winning ticket in this matchup.

Running Backs,Fantasy Football — Running Back Fantasy Football Stats | Shawn Child

Wide Receivers

Fantasy Football, Week 7, DraftKings — Wide Receiver Pricing on DraftKings in Week 7 | Shawn Child

Based on high salaries and below-par results in the field, Tee Higgins (1.40) and Ja’Marr Chase (1.75) rate the lowest at wide receiver in this matchup in fantasy points per $1,000 invested. Despite their outlook, both players have impact ceiling if the Bengals’ offensive line can give Joe Flacco enough time to throw.

Ja’Marr Chase (DK: $12,000)

Chase dominated in both of his two home starts (14/165/1 and 6/110/2), with Jake Browning delivering more of his targets. Joe Flacco looked his way 12 times in Week 6, leading another productive day (10/91/1) with most of the damage coming late in the game via a 19-yard touchdown. Last year, Chase had two steady outcomes (6/86/1 and 10/96/1 with 23 combined targets) against Pittsburgh. He looks overpriced, but there aren’t many players in this game who can score enough to knock him off the winning ticket.

Tee Higgins (DK: $10,000)

Higgins has drifted his way through the first six weeks, resulting in only three double-digit fantasy days (3/56/1, 3/22/1, and 5/62). He’s averaging only 5.8 targets, with weakness in his catch rate (51.4%). In his home start against the Steelers last season, Higgins caught five of his 10 targets for 69 yards and one score while delivering a quiet game (4/53) in Pittsburgh. In his career, Higgins has posted four impact showings (2023 – 5/140/1, 2022 – 9/148, 2021 – 6/114/1, and 2020 – 7/115/1) against the Steelers (three of which have come on the road).

Over their first five games, wide receivers have 68 catches for 797 yards and three touchdowns on 103 targets against the Steelers (33.14 FPPG in PPR formats). Garrett Wilson (7/95/1), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (8/103), and Justin Jefferson (10/126) posted the best outcomes, while the Seahawks’ and Vikings’ WR2 both had success (Cooper Kupp – 7/90 and Jordan Addison – 4/114).

DK Metcalf (DK: ($10,400)

Metcalf has a touchdown in four consecutive games, while making more significant plays over the past two weeks (5/126/1 and 4/95/1). He beat a defender for a long touchdown last week, but Aaron Rodgers showed his age by underthrowing him by a wide margin, allowing a defense to catch up to the errant pass. Metcalf has the look of a beast, and he has the tools to be a similar play as Davante Adams when he played with Rodgers. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh has only looked his way 31 times this year (6.2 per game), and his chemistry with Rodgers has been a work in progress based on his catch rate (61.2%).

Cincinnati sits 19th in wide receiver defense (190.60 fantasy points – 73/936/4 on 112 targets). Amon-Ra St. Brown (8/100) is the only wideout to gain over 100 yards. In Week 1, Joe Flacco passed for 290 yards and one touchdown against the Bengals, which could be a plus sign for Aaron Rodgers in this game.

Best of the Rest at Wide Receiver

Andrie Iosivas has been on the field for over 90% of the Bengals' plays over the past three weeks. He is capable of sniping a touchdown despite having only 17 targets on the year. His only game of value (5/82) came in Week 5 vs. the Lions. Iosivas scored last year at home against the Steelers (3/35/1).

Here are the snap counts for the Steelers’ wideouts in Week 6:

Scotty Miller (44%)

· Roman Wilson (25%)

· Ben Skowronek (17%)

Miller has the best NFL resume (90/1,245/7). Wilson is unknown with big play upside, while Skowronek brings size (6’3” and 225 lbs.) to the table, which potentially gives him a chance to score at the goal line.

Tight Ends

DraftKings, Steelers, Bengals, Fantasy Football — DraftKings Pricing Tight Ends Week 7 | Shawn Childs

Last season, the Bengals’ tight ends had 129 catches for 1,114 yards and four touchdowns on 155 targets, accounting for 28% of their catches and 22.7% of their receiving yards. After six games this year, their tight ends rank 21st in fantasy points (34/208/2 on 49 targets) while gaining only 6.1 yards per catch.

Noah Fant tends to split snaps, but his role should increase with Mike Gesicki and Tanner Hudson injured. Drew Sample is the Bengals' blocking tight end. Fant tends to have about a four-catch floor, and he could be sneaky at the goal line.

Pittsburgh has a bottom-tier tight end defense (32/359/3 on 46 targets), highlighted by the success of Hunter Henry (8/90/2) and the Browns’ tight ends (11/109).

In my projection system, I only rate two tight ends per team, which leaves Pat Freiermuth off my sheet for this matchup. His playing time has decreased over his last two games (50%, 50%, 70%, 28%, and 28%) while catching eight passes for 76 yards on 11 targets this season. Last year, he led the Steelers in receiving production (65/653/7 on 78 targets), with two highlight games (6/68/1 and 8/85/1) against the Bengals. His salary ($3,000) is favorable in this matchup.

The success of Freiermuth could be a sign that Jonnu Smith pops tonight. He leads the Steelers in tight end snaps (60.2%), but he also has been relatively quiet this year (17/89/1 on 20 targets). Pittsburgh gave him four targets or fewer in four consecutive games.

Over the past two weeks, the Steelers turned to Darnell Washington as their lead tight end, leading to 91% and 80% of their snaps. He caught six of his eight targets for 82 yards over this snap. His profile is better suited for the blocking game, but Washington did game 17.3 yards per catch over his limited chances in college (44/759/3 on 71 targets over 28 games). I sense he is the tight end fade in this game despite his favorable salary ($2,000).

Cincinnati ranks last in the NFL in defending tight ends.

Fantasy Football Tight Ends | Shawn Child

Here’s my early look at this showdown lineup:

Steelers’ tight end at captain creates salary space

· A tight end from both teams may score tonight

· One of these Bengals players will land on the winning ticket – Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, or Tee Higgins

· I would mix in DK Metcalf, Jaylen Warren, or Kenneth Gainwell

· I expect to play both quarterbacks, but not at captain

· Kickers and defenses will be against the grain