Perfect TNF DraftKings Showdown DFS Lineup Featuring A Josh Allen-Keon Coleman Stack

The Bills host the Dolphins on Thursday night in a high-scoring DFS showdown, and DraftKings props reveal which players are primed to anchor winning lineups.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) practices before the game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

DraftKings gave away $250,000 to the lucky game manager who stacked the Falcons’ run game last Sunday night, along with their kicker and defense. A low-scoring affair led to both quarterbacks failing to make the winning ticket. Here’s a look at the winning team.

Breaking Down Sunday Night Football's DFS Showdown Winning Lineups

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SullyBrochill max entered this contest (150 teams @ $15), and the event did sell out (87,145 teams). He had no other team finish in the top 500. The second-best roster was also a solo lineup, picking up $100,011 for his effort. Here is that lineup:

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There were multiple other lineup versions that could have won a huge playoff, all hinging around Will Rechard (8.00 fantasy points) replacing Kyle Pitts (7.70) or Drake London (6.90) with either Bijan Robinson or the Falcons’ defense as the captain in this showdown format.

Based on my projections, Bijan Robinson (1.90), Tyler Algeier (1.90), and Kyle Pitts Jr. (1.83) rated the best in fantasy points per $1,000 invested at DraftKings outside of J.J. McCarthy (1.93). When a showdown matchup has indicators with no players projected to score more than 2.00 fantasy points per $1,000, it invites defenses and kickers more into the winning lineup. It also suggests the top-end talent is overpriced for their potential in their matchup.

I don’t project kickers and defenses, but I believe I have the data to help in this area down the road with some work in my spreadsheet.

Week 3 Thursday Night Football DraftKings DFS Showdown Lineup Strategy

On Thursday night, the Miami Dolphins travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills. In my Dolphins/Bills game preview article, I showed some DraftKings prop lines and player writeups to show their potential value in this matchup.

Here’s a look at this week’s top skill players:

Week 3 Thursday Night Football Quarterbacks

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Josh Allen’s ability to run and score touchdowns gives him a significant advantage on showdown slates. He was the top-scoring player (394/2 with 14 rushes for 30 yards and two touchdowns) in the Bills' showdown game with the Ravens in Week 1. Over his 14 games against the Dolphins, he delivered 42 touchdowns (three per game) while averaging 313 combined yards. The game has an over/under of 49.5, painting a high-scoring matchup.

The Dolphins tend to struggle when traveling to upstate, highlighted by Tua Tagovailoa's 1-8 career record against Buffalo, with weakness in his passing stats (averaging 203 yards with 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions).

Week 3 Thursday Night Football Running Backs

Shawn Childs

I don’t have Jaylen Wright rated in this game, but there is a chance he is active this week. If so, his outlook wouldn’t be much higher than Ollie Gordon's.

De’Von Achane rates well in this game based on his ability to catch the ball and make big plays. He played well in both contests in 2024 (22/96 with seven catches for 69 yards and one score ~ 121 combined yards with two touchdowns and eight catches) against the Bills. Achane also shined against Buffalo in one outing in his rookie season (8/101/2 with three catches for 19 yards) despite only touching the ball 11 times.

Over the first two games, James Cook scored in each matchup while mixing in plenty of rushing and receiving yards. The Bills sometimes game plan to use other backs, stealing some of his ceiling and potential in touchdowns. Josh Allen is also a factor at the goal line.

Ray Davis is capable of scoring with some value runs and catches, making him a flier backend filler.

Week 3 Thursday Night Football Wide Receivers

Shawn Child

The Bills’ top three wide receivers looked underpriced in this matchup based on their rating in fantasy points per $1,000 invested. Keon Coleman (8/112/1) was a Week 1 winner in the fantasy market while being under-projected at all sites. His resume of success is relatively short, but he looks the part of a rising WR1. I expect him to be on many rosters due to his favorable salary. 

Over two games, Khalil Shakir only has seven catches for 76 yards on 11 targets, putting him behind his success in 2024 (76/825/4 on 100 targets). He tends to have a 5/50 profile with limited chances in scoring. His ticket (6/72/1) came in once last year at home in the DFS market.

Joshua Palmer has been used as a big-play wideout (15.4 yards per catch) so far by the Bills, highlighted by his aDOT (12.1). He is yet to have a target inside the 10-yard line. His salary relief should help his playability in this game.

Tyreek Hill (6/109) and Jaylen Waddle (5/68/1) showed an uptick pulse in their last game at home, but both players have had a much lower profile playing in Buffalo. A chaser game suggests more fantasy value and chances, but any playable outcomes start with better quarterback play.

Week 3 Thursday Night Football Tight Ends

Shawn Childs

The tight end position for Miami lacks a viable fantasy option, but a 2/20/1 game would support his salary bucket.

Dalton Kincaid is trending higher this year, but he remains below the top tight ends in the league in opportunity (five targets per game). His salary requires about 11.00 fantasy points to pay off, which he beat in Week 1 (4/48/1). He only has five touchdowns over his first 31 games with the Bills. If Miami struggles to move the ball, his targets will fall short of an impact day.

The Perfect Week 3 Thursday Night Football DraftKings Showdown Lineup

Here’s my Perfect Lineup for this matchup:

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