Bills Vs. Dolphins Week 3 TNF Preview: Key Fantasy Football Player Projections

The Miami Dolphins (0-2) take on the Bills in Buffalo (2-0) on Thursday night, matching two teams heading in different directions early in 2025. The Bills scored 71 points over their first two matchups while getting drilled on the defensive side of the ball in Week 1 (Ravens scored 40 points). Miami showed an offensive pulse last week (27 points scored), but its defense allowed 33 points in back-to-back matchups (eight field goals and five touchdowns over 17 possessions).

TV: Prime Video

Time: 8:15 PM EST

Vegas Line (DraftKings): Buffalo -12.5 points

Over/Under: 49.5

To help game managers set their rosters in Week 3, here’s a look at the game preview and projections for Miami and Buffalo.

Week 3 Miami Dolphins Fantasy Football Projections

Miami Dolphins Week 3 Fantasy Football Projections — Shawn Childs

Over his first five seasons with Miami, Tua Tagovailoa is 1-8 vs. the Bills while averaging 203 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Buffalo sacked him 14 times. Here’s a look at his outcome vs. the Bills away from home:

2024 – 162 combined yards with one touchdown and three interceptions
2023 – 289 combined yards with one touchdown and one interception
2022 – 242 combined yards with two touchdowns
2021 – 215 combined yards with one TD and one interception
2020 – 35-for-58 for 389 combined yards with one touchdown and three interceptions

DraftKings set his over/under at 239.5 yards (-113o), just above my initial projections (237 yards). He is predicted to throw fewer than 1.5 touchdowns based on his Wednesday prop line (-164u).

Week 3 Thursday Night Football Rushing Yards Over/Under Lines — DraftKings

De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

Over the first two games, Achane averaged only nine carries per game with dull results in rushing yards (7/55 and 11/30). He remains active catching the ball (11/112/2 on 14 targets). DraftKings set a prop line of 54.5 yards (-115u) for this matchup, which is below my expectations (16/77 with a 75% chance of scoring a rushing touchdown).

Last year, Achane had more than 12 carries (DraftKings line is set at 12.5) in five of 29.4% of his 17 games. He played well in both contests in 2024 (22/96 with seven catches for 69 yards and one score ~ 121 combined yards with two touchdowns and eight catches) against the Bills. Achane also played well against Buffalo in one outing in his rookie season (8/101/2 with three catches for 19 yards) despite only touching the ball 11 times. He is +120 to score an anytime touchdown.

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

There was a Hill sighting last week on the Dolphins game log. He caught six of his seven targets for 109 yards while breaking his slump of not catching a pass longer than 30 yards (long of 47 yards). Buffalo held him to seven catches for 116 yards on 11 targets last season.

DraftKings set his over/under in receiving yards at 64.5 (-113o). I projected him at 83 yards, requiring Miami to chase on the scoreboard and attempt more passes. Hill has never gained over 82 yards receiving in a game against Buffalo while playing for the Dolphins. He is +175 to score an anytime touchdown.

Buffalo Bills Week 3 Fantasy Football Projections

Week 3 Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Projections — Shawn Childs

Based on the Dolphins’ early struggles on defense, Josh Allen should move the ball at will against them. Last year, he was unimpressive vs. Miami in his two games (141 combined yards with one score and 242 combined yards with three touchdowns and one interception). The Dolphins kept him in check in both games running the ball (2/2 and 2/7). Allen is 12-2 against Miami with 42 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

DraftKings set his passing yards over/under at 235.5 (-113u) while expecting him to pass for more than 1.5 touchdowns (-153o). He is -160 to score a rushing touchdown vs. the Dolphins (35.7% rushing scores over his 14 games).

Buffalo wants to run the ball, but they have the tools to air the ball out if needed. This offense looks more explosive than last season, leading me to project Allen for 278 passing yards in this game. Miami has already allowed three rushing touchdowns to the quarterback position.

Week 3 Thursday Night Football Receiving Yards Over/Under Lines — DraftKings

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

Two weeks into 2025, Cook appears to be the value running back at the 3/4 turn in fantasy drafts. He’s only been on the field for 83 of 160 plays (51.9%) run by the Bills. Despite this weakness, Cook gained 237 combined yards with three touchdowns and six catches on 40 touches. Last year, he drilled Miami on the road (95 combined yards with three touchdowns and one catch) while touching the ball only 12 times. They slowed him down in their next matchup (10/44 with five catches for 25 yards).

His over/under in rushing yards (67.5o) at DraftKings seems reasonable based on the Dolphins giving up 221 rushing yards to running backs over their first two games on 52 carries. I have him projected to rush for 79 yards. Cooks is -175 to score an anytime touchdown.

Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills

After his big opening game (8/112/1 on 11 targets), the Bills didn’t need to pass the ball last week to beat the Jets. Josh Allen completed all three of his passes to Coleman for 26 yards. They only had him on the field for 51% of their plays, compared to 88% in Week 1. He is +165 to score an anytime touchdown.

Based on his big play ability (17.4 YPC in his time with Buffalo) and improved target share, DraftKings may have mispriced his receiving yards over/under (43.5) in Week 3. Coleman only had one catch for 21 yards on three targets in two games against Miami last season despite high snap counts (91% and 79%). This year, wideouts have 18 catches for 213 yards and three touchdowns on 25 targets vs. the Dolphins. U set his outlook at 58 receiving yards in this game.

Thursday Night Football Fantasy Insights

Josh Allen, James Cook, Keon Coleman, De’Von Achane, and Tyreek Hill are must-starts in this game in most formats. I’m not interested in rostering or playing Tua Tagovailoa. When making a lineup decision between Dalton Kincaid and another tight end, I would rely on the team that has the highest chances of scoring touchdowns.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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