Are Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson, and DFS Studs Worth the Price in Week 7?

Bijan Robinson and Justin Jefferson are among the top DFS foundation plays for Week 7, offering elite upside to anchor winning DraftKings lineups.

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) in action during the game against the Cincinnati Bengals. | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Moments of glory in fantasy football are challenging to come by when competing in events with massive entries and big paydays. Over the past week, I’ve hit the fairway with my roster research three times while failing to make that life-changing putt. 

Last night in the DraftKings showdown game between the Steelers and Bengals, I had these closing lines in my DFS article:

• Steelers’ tight end at captain creates salary space
• A tight end from both teams may score tonight
• One of these Bengals players will land on the winning ticket – Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, or Tee Higgins
• I would mix in DK Metcalf, Jaylen Warren, or Kenneth Gainwell
• I expect to play both quarterbacks, but not as captain
• Kickers and defenses will be against the grain

In addition, I highlighted Pat Freiermuth’s previous success against Pittsburgh:

In my projection system, I only rate two tight ends per team, which leaves Pat Freiermuth off my sheet for this matchup. His playing time has decreased over his last two games (50%, 50%, 70%, 28%, and 28%) while catching eight passes for 76 yards on 11 targets this season. Last year, he led the Steelers in receiving production (65/653/7 on 78 targets), with two highlight games (6/68/1 and 8/85/1) against the Bengals. His salary ($3,000) is favorable in this matchup.

Based on my research, I rotated the Steelers’ tight ends at the captain position with one of the Bengals' top wideouts, DK Metcalf or Jaylen Warren, and both quarterbacks. I feature a second tight end, but failed to pair Noah Fant with Freiermuth. 

Week 7 Thursday Night Football DFS Winning Lineup

Here’s a look at the winning roster:

DraftKings

A late 68-yard touchdown catch by Pat Freiermuth knocked Ja’Marr Chase (16/161/1) out of the captain position. Before Evan McPherson’s 36-yard game-winning field goal, Noah Fant (14.40) was on the winning ticket. 

Seven teams overlapped this roster, resulting in $111,428.58 in winnings from a $20 investment. The Fant teams (6) had the second-best roster, 2.58 points off the pace.

I finished tied for 37th-place (175.89 fantasy points - $500 in winnings), with the same roster except I had Jonnu Smith (11.80 fantasy points) on my team instead of the Bengals’ kicker.

DraftKings

If Tee Higgins scores with one minute and 47 seconds left in the game, he posts 31.30 fantasy points, kicking Jaylen Warren and Evan McPherson off the winning ticket. Noah Fant is back in play with Jonnu Smith trailing him by 2.60 fantasy points and time to make a catch or two. Cincinnati would have gone for a two-point conversion, taking away the final score chance by their kicker.

There were 12 teams with Higgins/Smith (I had one) that finished in 67th place out of 88,235 entries, compared to two Higgins/Fant rosters (41st). In the end, 11 of my 15 teams cashed ($1,085), giving me a $785 profit for the night and more ammo to tee it up for another day.

This week’s Millionaire Maker at DraftKings has a goal of 161,764 entries. There are 10 games again this Sunday due to the NFL having another game in London and a two-game slate on Monday night. 

The Browns/Dolphins game is expected to be low-scoring (over/under of 36.5), with a high probability of rain and heavy winds. There should be some rain in Chicago, potentially lowering the ceiling for both teams' passing the ball if the wind becomes a factor.

Top Foundation Players on DraftKings and FanDuel in Week 7

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs during the first half against the Washington Commanders at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons (DK: $8,300/FD: $9,300)

Robinson stole the running back show on Monday night (238 combined yards with one touchdown and six catches), leading to 38.80 fantasy points at DraftKings. He is on pace to gain 2,795 combined yards (1,646 rushing and 1,149 receiving). Robinson’s only trailing trait this season is touchdowns (3) after averaging 0.88 TDs per game in 2024.

His salary wasn’t impacted by that game this week because the daily games release weekend contests before the NFL games are played on Monday.

Shawn Childs

The 49ers allowed the 21st most fantasy points to running backs (137.10), with Travis Etienne (125 combined yards with one touchdown and one catch), Kyren Williams (131 combined yards with two touchdowns and eight catches), and Alvin Kamara (120 combined yards and six catches) posting the best outcomes. San Francisco lost their top linebacker (Fred Warner) last week, which should be a win for the Falcons' run game.

Robinson is averaging 27.24 fantasy points at DraftKings this year, almost giving him a 3X floor if his success is repeated in this matchup.

Christian McCaffery, San Francisco 49ers (DK: $8,500/FD: $9,600)

McCaffrey is the only skill player (RB, WR, or TE) to score over 20.00 fantasy points in all six games (23.20, 22.70, 24.00, 26.10, 27.90, and 24.10), giving him elite consistency. The fantasy market is waiting for his first difference-maker game in 2025. 

San Francisco has had him on the field for 85.0% of their plays this year, leading to 25.7 touches per game. He’s averaging 2.36 fantasy points when catching the ball, but only 3.67 fantasy points per touch when carrying the football. McCaffrey still doesn’t have a run over 20 yards while averaging only 3.1 yards per carry.

Shawn Childs

When reviewing the Falcons’ running back defense data, there should be one aspect that should shine in favor of McCaffrey. Atlanta has allowed 4.5 yards per rush to backs despite ranking second in fantasy points allowed (90.60 – five games) in PPR formats. Over their last three contests, the Panthers, Commanders, and Bills’ rushing gained 304 yards on 61 carries (5.0 YPR).  The defense faced Baker Mayfield, J.J. McCarthy, Bryce Young, Marcus Mariota, and Josh Allen.

The battle of running backs in this game comes with a cost in salary in the DFS market, but one or both players could score over 30.00 fantasy points. As expected, they rank first and second in the running back projections in Week 7.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks (DK: $7,500/FD: $9,400)

With Puka Nacua expected to miss this week’s game, Smith-Njigba looks poised to jump to first in wide receiver fantasy points (needs 21.20) if he can outlast the Week 7 push by Ja’Marr Chase (16/161/1 on 23 targets). He has a floor of eight catches and 100 receiving yards on two-thirds of his six starts while scoring three times over the past four weeks.

Shawn Child

Smith-Njigba’s higher salary and matchup against Houston suggest he’ll be on a lower percentage of rosters in Week 7. The Texans sit second in wide receiver defense (133.10 fantasy points – five games), but they have allowed 13.3 yards per catch. Their defense struggled with Puka Nacua in Week 1 (10/130 on 11 targets). Houston had a favorable wide receiver schedule over their last three games (JAC, TEN, and BAL – Cooper Rush at quarterback). 

I have him projected 11th at wide receiver (7/88 with 50% chance of scoring) this week, leaving Smith-Njigba one catch for 12 yards and a touchdown away from a 25.00-point fantasy day at DraftKings. He brings a fade feel based on his matchup, but reading between the lines suggests keeping in the foundation mix due to his recent form.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (DK: $7,600/FD: $9,000)

I expect the Vikings to name Carson Wentz as their starting quarterback for Week 7, which should be a win for Jefferson. Over his past two games with Wentz behind center, he caught 17 of his 22 targets for 249 yards. His scoreless drought stands at four games. Jefferson is on pace to catch 99 passes for 1,527 yards and three touchdowns on 143 targets. He has the appearance of underachieving this year (10th in fantasy scoring average – 16.06), but his overall profile isn’t that far out of line from 2024.

Shawn Childs

The Eagles rank 22nd in defending wide receivers (192.20 fantasy points). They’ve allowed the second-most targets (129) to wideouts, with wide receivers accounting for 64.7% of each team’s receptions. Philadelphia has struggled with WR1s this year – CeeDee Lamb (7/110), Puka Nacua (11/112), Emeka Egbuka (4/101/1), and Courtland Sutton (8/99). In their other two matchups, the Eagles faced weaker wide receiving corps (KC and NYG) due to injuries to Xavier Worthy and Malik Nabers.

Carson Wentz faces his former team, and Justin Jefferson is telling him that he’s better than Joe Flacco, who just featured Ja’Marr Chase against the Steelers. An Eagles/Vikings game stack has high potential, but it requires Minnesota to play from the lead.