Joe Burrow Out 3 Months With Turf Toe: Fantasy Fallout and Jake Browning’s Value

Joe Burrow’s turf toe injury sidelines him for three months, forcing fantasy managers to turn to Jake Browning and reevaluate the Bengals’ offensive outlook.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) throws a pass in the first quarter of the NFL Week 2 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Jacksonville Jaguars at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Sept. 14, 2025. The Jaguars led 17-10 at halftime. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In one play, Joe Burrow crushed fantasy dreams due to suffering a turf toe injury that is expected to knock him out of action for three months. He will have surgery this week, putting him on a path to return mid-November.  

ESPN sources: Bengals QB Joe Burrow will need toe surgery that will sideline him a minimum of three months. pic.twitter.com/g8AiFectwX

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 15, 2025

In the fantasy market, game managers should run to the waiver wire window to roster Jake Browning, with the hopes he returns 75% of Burrows' passing production. In 2023, Browning made seven starts for the Bengals, resulting in a 4-3 record with 1,900 combined yards, 14 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He completed 71.5% of his passes while gaining 8.2 yards per pass attempt. Here’s a look at his fantasy point output over this span in four-point passing touchdowns leagues:

• 15.25 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
• 30.90 at Jacksonville
• 27.45 against the Indianapolis Colts
• 23.20 vs. Minnesota Vikings
• 19.75 at Pittsburgh
• 23.30 at Kansas City
• 20.60 against the Cleveland Browns

Browning averaged 23.39 fantasy points over this span, compared to 19.42 by Joe Burrow (2,289 combined yards with 14 touchdowns) over his first nine games in 2023. 

Here’s a look at Bengals wide receiver output in 2023 with Joe Burrow and Jake Browning. I’m leaving out Cincinnati’s Week 11 stats due to both quarterbacks playing.

Ja’Marr Chase With And Without Joe Burrow

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) celebrates after breaking away for a long run on a reception in the second quarter of the NFL Week 2 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Jacksonville Jaguars at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Sept. 14, 2025. The Jaguars led 17-10 at halftime. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

• With Burrow – 69/821/5 – 180.50 fantasy points in PPR formats (20.06 per game)
• With Browning – 29/383/1 – 73.00 fantasy points in PPR formats with one missed game (shoulder). Chase was a stud over this span against the Jaguars (11/149/1), but crushed fantasy teams down the stretch (3/29, 4/64, 3/41, and 4/19 on only 23 combined targets). 

Ja’Marr Chase with Jake Browning as QB Weeks 12-18 in 2023:

5 Receptions/Game
63 Yards/Game
1 Total TD

BRUTAL hit to Chase’s fantasy value. pic.twitter.com/0AOR8ErteD

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) September 15, 2025

Tee Higgins With And Without Joe Burrow

• With Burrow, Higgins missed two games. He was shutout in Week 1 on eight targets (@CLE) while being a losing fantasy investment in three other games (2/21, 2/19, and 2/20). Higgins teased in Week 2 (8/89/2 – Ravens) and Week 9 (8/110 – Buffalo). The 49ers held him to five catches for 69 yards on six targets in his other matchup.
• With Browning, Higgins sat out Weeks 10, 11, and 12, two of which came with Cincinnati’s backup quarterback. He played well in Week 15 (4/61/2 on eight targets) and Week 16 (5/140/1 on eight targets), only to leave his next game after playing 41% of the snaps. As a result, Higgins was on the sidelines again in Week 18.

Tyler Boyd With And Without Joe Burrow

• With Burrow, Boyd was the Bengals’ WR2 in many games in 2023. He caught 44 passes for 417 yards and two touchdowns over Cinci’s first nine games, with his best results coming in Week 10 (8/117).
• With Browning, he caught 23 of his 37 targets for 250 yards and no touchdowns.

Jake Browning Target Distribution

Here’s a look at the pass distribution for Browning over his final seven games in 2023:

• Running Backs – 34/338/3 on 40 targets
• Wide Receivers – 90/1,405/6 on 131 targets
• Tight Ends – 43/344/2 on 54 targets

In 2023, the Bengals' quarterbacks scored 349.15 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues, which would have been a top 10 outcome despite playing six games with the top two wide receivers and Burrow sitting out seven and a half games.

Waiver Wire Pickups After Joe Burrow Injury

For any team that I’ve rostered Joe Burrow, I’m running to the window to add Jake Browning. The Bengals’ offense has plenty of weapons, giving a much higher floor than many via quarterbacks in the NFL. I’d rather start Browning over these quarterbacks based on each team’s current receiving weapons:

• Drake Maye, Jordan Love, Geno Smith, J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr, C.J. Stroud, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Brock Purdy, Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young, Tua Tagovailoa, Cam Ward, Sam Darnold, Russell Wilson, Spencer Rattler, and Matthew Stafford

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If a fantasy team can survive without Joe Burrow in season-long contests, they may have him on a low percentage of teams in the fantasy postseason, potentially creating a winning edge.