Aaron Nola is the Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Comeback Player of the Year Candidate

Can Aaron Nola rebound in 2026 and follow George Springer as fantasy baseball’s next Comeback Player of the Year?

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola (27) pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the third inning at Chase Field. | Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

Each fantasy baseball season, there are multiple veteran players coming off poor years who post a comeback year the following season. George Springer won the award in 2025. He finished with the 10th-best FPGscore (7.07), with 22 missed games. In 2024, Springer ranked 114th in FPGscore (-1.88) with 47 more at-bats. As a result of his success, his ADP (105 – 22nd outfielder) is much lower this year.

2026 Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

My comeback player this year is Aaron Nola. He comes off his worst major league season (5-10 with a 6.01 ERA, 1.346 WHIP, and 97 strikeouts over 94.1 innings) while missing 15 starts with an ankle issue. He had a floor of 180.0 innings over his previous six years (excluding the COVID-19 60-game schedule), but Nola also posted a losing ERA in 2021 (4.63) and 2023 (4.46). His walk rate has been favorable for his whole career, but it has risen in three consecutive seasons (1.3, 2.1, 2.3, and 2.7) while losing the luster in his strikeout rate from 2023 to 2025 (9.2 per nine – 11.1 in 2021 and 10.3 in 2021).

His average fastball (91.7 mph) in 2025 was his lowest since 2016, but it has had more life this spring (92.5 mph – 92.6 in 2024). Last year, Nola worked off a five-pitch arsenal that starts with his four-seamer (.233 BAA) and curveball (.252 BAA). He also mixes in a sinker (.288 BAA), changeup (.257 BAA), and cutter (.333 BAA). Nola allowed 14 home runs to left-handers over 226 at-bats (.270 BAA).

Aaron Nola Spring Training & WBC Stats

Over his one spring training start, he allowed a run and two hits over two innings with two strikeouts. Nola pitched well over his two appearances (one run, eight hits, and a walk over nine innings with eight strikeouts) for Italy in the WBC.

Aaron Nola was great this WBC pic.twitter.com/PwoQa4EpCn

— Underdog MLB (@UnderdogMLB) March 17, 2026

Aaron Nola's Dominant 2024 Season In Review

In 2024, Nola allowed two runs or fewer in 20 of his 33 starts. Batters knocked him out before finishing the fifth inning in five games, leading to 26 runs, 52 baserunners, and seven home runs over 21.0 innings with 21 strikeouts. He had a 2.93 ERA, 1.049 WHIP, 23 home runs, and 176 strikeouts over his other 178.1 innings. Nola had similar failures over 11 starts in 2023 (52 runs, 85 baserunners, and 14 home runs over 64.2 innings).

Why Aaron Nola Will Bounce Back From His Dissapointing 2025 Campaign

He still throws strikes with K-ability, and his fastball had a pulse against lefties (four-seamer – .222 BAA and sinker – .212 BAA) last year. Nola has settled into an up-and-down arm over the past five years. He must clean up his damage in home runs allowed while lowering his disaster start ratio. Based on his price point this year (NFBC ADP of 185 over the past four days), Nola has the resume to be a winning value pitcher in 2026, putting him in a range to be one of the better comeback players.

I have him projected to go 10-8 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.223 WHIP, and 192 strikeouts over 188.0 innings. His ERA appears to have more risk than his WHIP at this point in his career.