MLB Mock Trade: Boston Red Sox Acquire Sandy Alcantara From Marlins For Triston Casas

With the MLB trade deadline looming, struggling Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara emerges as a potential trade target for the Red Sox, who could gamble on his upside despite a league-worst ERA.

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) delivers a pitch against the Kansas City Royals during the first inning at loanDepot Park. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Two days before the Major League Baseball trade deadline, Sandy Alcantara is in a dog fight with Antonio Senzatela for the worst ERA (6.66 to 6.68) in baseball for pitchers with over 100.0 innings pitched.  Despite his struggles, Alcantara remains an attractive trade target due to his previous success and expected potential with better command.

Over his last nine starts, he’s walked only 10 batters over 53.0 innings (1.7 per nine innings) while allowing 54 hits. His WHIP (1.207) over this span suggested an ERA closer to 3.60, but Alcantara continues to battle disaster innings, leading to a weaker ERA (4.92). In his last start on July 23rd vs. the Padres, he pitched his best game of the year (seven shutout innings with four hits, no walks, and four strikeouts). His final test drive comes tonight (7/29) on the road in St. Louis, unless the Marlins move him before their game.

Sandy Alcántara, 99mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/gRm4o9j3wz

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 23, 2025

Sandy Alcantara: Once Upon A Time

Over 65 starts between 2021 and 2022, Alcantara was a workhorse ace for the Marlins. He pitched 434.1 innings while allowing 345 hits (.217 BAA) with 37 home runs allowed (0.8 per nine innings). Batters had a 1.583 average hit rate and a .292 contact batting average. His highlight season (National League CY Young) came in 2022 when Alcantara led the National League in innings pitched (228.2) and batters faced (886) with an exceptional ERA (2.28) and WHIP (0.980).

Despite his success, he struck out only 8.5 batters per nine innings, while offering winning command (2.1 walks per nine).

Alcantara's 2025 Struggles

Alcantara’s lack of command (3.4 walks per nine) this season has led to a spike in home runs allowed (1.1 per nine), a higher batting average against (.270), and a decline in his strikeouts per nine innings (6.7). 

All of the above give off the appearance of a soft-tosser. For the season, Alcantara’s four-seamer and sinker have averaged over 97.0 mph, aligning with his best seasons. His changeup was a key factor in his development in 2021 and 2022, and that pitch has been his third-highest usage offering this year. He continues to throw a slider while adding a curveball in 2025, which has been his only winning pitch (.224 BAA). 

Alcantara has been a disaster on the road (1-5 over 36.2 innings with 52 hits, 19 walks, and 31 strikeouts). Other than ERA (4.81), the rest of his stats at home (1.158 WHIP, 58 hits, and 46 strikeouts over 67.1 innings) resemble a winning arm. 

Right-handed batters are hitting .292 against him. Alcantara issued 29 of his 39 walks to lefties (32 strikeouts – .245 BAA). Hus catchers have yet to throw out a base runner while stealing (24-for-24).

Here’s a look at his pitch mix stats from June 1st compared to the first three months (via Brooks Baseball):

The command of his four-seamer, changeup, slider, and curveball has been much improved since the beginning of June. Alcantara struggles to put away batters with his sinker, leading to a poor strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Alcantara's Contract

The Marlins own Alcantara the remainder of his 2025 contract ($17.3 million) while having him under control for the same amount next season. They have a club option for him for $21 million in 2027, followed by free agency in 2028. He gets a one-million-dollar bonus if traded.

Based on the direction of their team, the Red Sox should be the winners in the Sandy Alcantara sweepstakes. They need another frontline starter, and the contract for him is more than reasonable for his potential ceiling over the next two seasons. 

The Red Sox have the 10th-best ERA (3.79) but rank 19th in WHIP (1.301). On the positive side, they’ve allowed only 109 home runs (seventh-lowest total). Boston ranks fifth in bullpen ERA (3.33), helped by allowing the lowest home runs (30) in the majors. Their relievers have 23 wins, 23 losses, and 29 saves over their first 108 games.

Boston Red Sox - Miami Marlins MLB Mock Trade

Boston Red Sox Receive

Sandy Alcantara

Deyvison De Los Santos

Miami Marlins Receive

Triston Casas

David Hamilton

Connelly Early

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I’m sending Triston Casas to the Marlins, along with David Hamilton and Connelly Early, for Sandy Alcantara and Deyvison De Los Santos.

“I’m living my worst nightmare right now. This is the worst case scenario for any type of player… It’s just onward from here, I guess.”

Triston Casas on his season-ending injury. pic.twitter.com/mqnxZc7gv6

— NESN (@NESN) June 3, 2025

I view Casas as a tradeable asset due to his platoon skill set at first base, and I’m hoping Boston makes a run at Pete Alonso at first in the offseason. Hamilton gives Miami a rotation platoon player with added value in speed, and his bat offers a sneaky floor in power. He is more than serviceable as an injury cover while offering starting upside down the road. By acquiring Deyvison De Los Santos, the Red Sox gain back a fallback option at first base.

Connelly Early (SP) has progressed this season at AA (7-2 with a 2.51 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 96 strikeouts over 71.2 innings). He has a plus changeup but a league-average fastball that has been trending higher since college. The Red Sox drafted him in the fifth round of the 2023 MLB June Amateur Draft.