Paul Skenes Could Challenge Tarik Skubal as Fantasy Baseball’s Best Pitcher

Paul Skenes fantasy outlook for 2026, analyzing his strikeout upside, workload trends, ratios, ADP value, and ceiling.

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) delivers a pitch against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at PNC Park. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Paul Skenes has already established himself as one of the most dominant arms in baseball, combining elite velocity, swing-and-miss stuff, and pristine ratios in his first two MLB seasons. While win totals may lag due to Pittsburgh’s offense, Skenes’ strikeout ceiling and run prevention make him a legitimate challenger for fantasy’s top pitcher. Is this the season he surpasses Tarik Skubal?

SP2 – Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (NFBC ADP – 10)

Skenes has been a special player over his first two seasons in the majors. He’s only won 38.2% of his 55 career starts, with an electric edge in ERA (1.96) and WHIP (0.948) while striking out 10.8 batters per nine innings. In his rookie year, Skenes averaged 5.8 innings per start, but upped that total to only 5.9 innings over his 32 starts in 2025. Pittsburgh scored three runs or fewer in 18 games.

Batters hit .198 against Skenes in his career while relying on three plus pitches (four seamer – .204 BAA, slider – .162 BAA, and changeup – .103 BAA). His sinker (.247 BAA) was an asset while still needing some work on his show-me curveball (.333 BAA). He brings a high-floor fastball (98.2 mph) with triple-digit upside.

Skenes allowed two runs or fewer in 25 starts, with 14 of those resulting in no runs. He pitched at least five innings in all but three games. After his 14th start, Pittsburgh allowed him to pitch over five innings in only half of his final 18 games. Skenes allowed 17 of his 41 runs (41.4%) in four matchups. His only double-digit strikeout game (10) came on July 6th. He averaged 93.6 pitches per game.

After the All-Star break, Skenes walked only 13 batters (1.4 per nine) over 81.2 innings, helping him regain his strikeout rate (11.7 per nine).

Paul Skenes throws pure filth. pic.twitter.com/OtBh03IN8V

— Baseball’s Greatest Moments (@BBGreatMoments) February 5, 2026

Paul Skenes 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Skenes won’t be a free agent until 2030, and I doubt the Pirates will pay him an elite ace salary. Based on this, Pittsburgh should ride him as much as possible over the next four years. He is a beast of a man who brings a workhorse profile on the mound. Many fantasy teams will shy away from him due to concerns about wins. Only 11 pitchers had 14 wins or more in 2025, seven of whom had an ERA over 3.00, and six pitchers had a WHIP of 1.10 or higher. So what is the value of a win?

The key stat for Skenes to approach 250+ strikeouts is his first-pitch strike rate (60.8%). If he throws 67% first-pitch strikes or more, he’ll make a run at 300 or more Ks. I’m shoving on him whenever possible because I see his edge and ceiling. His next challenge is catching Tarik Skubal in WHIP.