Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Goes Off and Tyrese Haliburton Doesn’t: 4 Wild Underdog Prop Bets For NBA Finals, Game 1
In this story:
After watching MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and emerging superstar Tyrese Haliburton dominate the NBA Playoffs, it’s easy to say, “MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and emerging superstar Tyrese Haliburton will dominate the NBA Finals.”
And you’d be right. Unless you weren’t.
In the Eastern and Western Conference Finals against, respectively, the New York Knicks and the Minnesota Timberwolves, each stud put up a notable clinker.
- Haliburton’s performance in Indy’s 111-94 Game 5 loss to the Knicks was distinctly un-Tyrese-like, with the All-Star managing just eight points, six assists, and three boards in 36 minutes.
- SGA’s subpar outing came in Game 3’s 143-101 beatdown at the hands of the Wolves, when the OKC guard racked up only 14 points, six dimes, and a couple of rebounds.
So we know they can, once in a rare while, poop the bed. We just don't know when.
But we can guess.
The Guessing Game
In terms of our dart throws, there're two factors that could tilt things towards OKC and SGA:
- 1) The Thunder haven’t played since May 28, while the Pacers didn’t wrap up the ECF until May 31. Three days of additional rest makes a difference.
- 2) The Finals opener will be played at the Paycom Center, where OKC’s combined regular season and postseason record is 44-7. Indiana’s combined road record is 36-11.
Big advantage: Thunder.
In terms of the superstar battle, during the postseason, SGA has outscored Haliburton by an average of 9.5 points a night, while Haliburton has slight edges in assists (+1.9), rebounds (+0.3), and steals (+0.4).
Itty-bitty advantage: Pacers.
Taking all of that into account, how might Thursday’s Game 1 look to Underdog Fantasy bettors?
Tyrese Haliburton -21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Remember Haliburton’s lousy ECF Game 5? His points/boards/dimes trifecta added up to 17. Thursday night, on the road against well-rested OKC team—a team that it should be noted is, y’know, the best in the Association—we could see the 25-year-old stagger out of the gate in his first NBA Finals outing.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +58.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
This kind of scoreboard-busting performance from SGA isn’t unprecedented here in the 2025 postseason: On May 26, he racked up positively Jokic-esque 40 points, ten assists, and nine boards, which, a quick peek at our Texas Instruments calculator tells us adds up to 59.
An energized MVP playing in front of a home crowd is just the kind of situation that could lead to a high-end triple-double.
Tyrese Haliburton -1.5 Points In First Five Minutes
Haliburton is a fantastic teammate, the kind of guy who’ll spend the first half of the first quarter trying to get his fellow Pacers involved. Don’t be shocked if the Iowa State product doesn’t put up his first shot until after the third minute of the game. Maybe even the fourth.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +9.5 Points In First Five Minutes
Like Haliburton, SGA is a fantastic teammate, but he also knows the value of getting his home crowd into the game from the jump. So unlike Haliburton, he’s going to jack it up on the first possession. And the second. And the fourth, And the sixth. And, well, you get the point.
Even if all of this comes to pass—even if Haliburton doesn’t have a Haliburton game—come Game 2, both MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and emerging superstar Tyrese Haliburton, as noted (twice), will dominate the NBA Finals.
MORE NBA FROM FANTASY SPORTS ON SI
-82121a1351894b8089c555f4b4b69420-1d609352940036e7455770363a74a2e9.png "Alan Goldsher")
Alan Goldsher has written about sports for Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Apple, Playboy, NFL.com, and NBA.com, and he’s the creator of the Chicago Sports Stuff Substack. He’s the bestselling author of 15 books, and the founder/CEO of Gold Note Records. Alan lives in Chicago, where he writes, makes music, and consumes and creates way too much Bears content. You can visit him at http://www.AlanGoldsher.com and http://x.com/AlanGoldsher.