2025 Fantasy Baseball: Julio Rodriguez Profile, Preview, Predictions
In this story:
I sense that the fantasy market will sleep on Julio Rodriguez in 2025 after a disppointing previous season. He's blessed with elite talent and a high ceiling, but his appraoch hasn't come along for the ride over his first three years with Seattle.
JULIO RODRIGUEZ HOME RUN ROBBERY OF THE YEAR CANDIDATE pic.twitter.com/9cPEAarVCm
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) May 18, 2024
OF – Julio Rodriguez, SEA (ADP – 13.3)
Over the past two draft fantasy draft seasons, the coin toss was between Bobby Witt and Rodriguez early in the first round. Unfortunately, controlling the strike zone (25.5 K rate) has been more of an issue for Rodriguez than expected early in his career. He also had a regression in his walk rate (6.2) again in 2024.
A midsummer ankle injury last year led to 19 days on the injured list. Rodriguez wasn’t a budding star over his first three months (.247/37/7/29/17 over 336 at-bats). He hit .316 over his final 215 at-bats with 36 runs, 12 home runs, 36 RBIs, and six steals, but it wasn’t enough to save his season.
His contact batting average (.377) has been an asset in his time with the Mariners (.382) while showing a higher gear in the minors (.422). Rodriguez slid to 30th in exit velocity (91.7 mph) and 28th in hard-hit rate (48.4). He had a slight bump in his launch angle (10.5) but a fade in his HR/FB rate (13.8 – 19.6 in 2023 and 21.4 in 2022), highlighted by his steep decline in his average hit rate (1.497).
Seattle finished 24th in runs (676) last season, leading to fewer RBI chances (360). He also had a fade in his RBI rate (14). Rodriguez ranked 35th in FPGscore (2.31) for batters.
Fantasy Outlook: Finding 30/30 type players with impact upside in the other three categories is a rarity in most fantasy seasons. Rodriguez must improve his approach and regain his lost power stroke to reach elite status, which was expected of him coming into the majors. I view him as a strong buy this year, but I’m not a fan of the offensive structure of the Mariners in mid-January.
Recommended Articles
Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 5 Shortstops
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
Follow Shawn__Childs