2025 Fantasy Baseball: Trea Turner Profile, Preview, Predictions
In this story:
In his third season with the Phillies, fans hope Turner hits his stride in all areas. He offers an excellent foundation skill set in five categories and projects to be a second-round value in drafts in 2025.
439 feet off the bat of Trea Turner for home run No. ✌️ tonight pic.twitter.com/KAyfixtUIF
— MLB (@MLB) July 3, 2024
SS – Trea Turner, PHI (ADP – 24.7)
In his second year with the Phillies, Turner missed about a quarter of the season with a hamstring issue. He hit .343 over his first 137 at-bats with 27 runs, two home runs, nine RBIs, and 10 steals. After another 53 dull power at-bats (.302/9/1/5), his home runs returned in July (.292 with 20 runs, 10 home runs, 23 RBIs, and three stolen bases over 96 at-bats). Turner had an uneventful final two months (.265/32/8/25/6 over 219 at-bats). He finished the year with a drop of 134 and 147 at-bats from his previous two seasons.
His average hit rate (1.591) came below 2023 (1.724), a second year of weakness over the past three seasons. His output in this area points to sub-20 home runs if repeated. Turner can overcome some of this regression by receiving elite plate appearances. His exit velocity (89.1 mph) and hard-hit rate (40.2) were only league average for batters with at least 400 plate appearances. He had a sharp decline in his line drive rate (16.2 – over 20% from 2019 to 2023), leading to an uptick in groundballs (47.3%). On the positive side, his HR/FB rate (14.1) was a three-year high.
Turner took fewer walks (5.0%) with a career average strikeout rate (18.2). His contact batting average (.366) remained high for his approach, but it was below his peak in 2021 (.402). He also pressed with runners on base over the past two seasons (RBI rate – 13 and 14).
Fantasy Outlook: Over his 10 seasons in the majors, Turner has been a very good player. His batting average tends to grade well while underperforming his potential in stolen bases since 2018 (43 steals). He fits the profile of a high-plate appearance bat with low walks, ultimately preventing him from matching the best hitters in the majors in runs. I don’t see a push to 30 home runs at this point in his career.
Recommended Articles
Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 5 Shortstops
Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Middle-Round Shortstops to Target
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
Follow Shawn__Childs