Fantasy Football Quarterback Debate: Bo Nix vs. Patrick Mahomes
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If you elect to wait for a quarterback in your fantasy football draft, you could find yourself deciding between two AFC West signal-callers: Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes.
Both Nix and Mahomes are returning from season-ending injuries, but the risk of reinjury is already baked into their average draft positions (ADP). Taking that into account, should you target Nix or Mahomes in fantasy football this season?
All stats used in this article are from rbsdm.com unless stated otherwise. The average draft position (ADP) for each player in this article is from FantasyPros’ real-time ADP for half-PPR leagues.
The Case for Bo Nix
FantasyPros’ Real-Time ADP: 108.1 (QB12)
People have differing opinions on whether or not Nix is a good real-life quarterback. Just last season, Nix was 18th in adjusted EPA/play (0.11), 25th in success rate (44.7%), and 24th in completion percentage over expected (CPOE; -1.2%) among 30 quarterbacks with 320 snaps.
Bo Nix in action 🔜
— NFL (@NFL) August 21, 2026
GBvsDEN – 9pm ET on @nflnetwork
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/MTSOlxOMyt
However, in fantasy football, Nix still managed to finish as QB11 in fantasy points per game (18.6) in 2025 with 356 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. Nix has now been the QB11 or better in his first two seasons in the league after concluding 2024 as the QB9 in fantasy points per game (19.3).
While Nix suffered an ankle fracture in the playoffs last season, he’s been cleared to start in Week 1 against Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Even if Nix sees a slight decline in rushing usage as he returns from his ankle ailment, the Denver Broncos added Jaylen Waddle to bolster their passing attack in 2026.
The Case for Patrick Mahomes
FantasyPros’ Real-Time ADP: 121.1 (QB15)
Unlike Nix, many agree that Mahomes is arguably the best real-life quarterback in the league, despite his numbers being down in recent years. After logging at least 4,700 passing yards and 38 passing touchdowns in four of his first five seasons as a starter, Mahomes has thrown for fewer than 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in back-to-back years.
#Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy on the potential of Patrick Mahomes playing week 1 👀
— SleeperChiefs (@SleeperChiefsKC) September 2, 2026
“Oh he’s back, ain’t no potentially.”
Even with a lack of production in 2025, Mahomes still earned the eighth-most adjusted EPA/play (0.20) and ninth-highest success rate (49.9%). Mahomes also set career-best marks in rushing yards (422) and rushing touchdowns (5), which led to him being tied with Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford as the QB2 in fantasy points per game (21.1).
Although Mahomes sustained a torn ACL in Week 15 of last season, the All-Pro quarterback is on track to start in Week 1 against Nix and the Broncos. The Chiefs may not have an elite receiving room, but their trio of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce is all seemingly ready for the season opener as well.
The Final Verdict: Draft Nix or Mahomes?
If I were beginning an NFL franchise from scratch, Mahomes would undoubtedly be the choice here. That being said, there are multiple factors to consider when choosing between Nix and Mahomes in fantasy football.
For starters, Nix is bouncing back from a less severe injury than Mahomes, so there’s a lower chance of him taking a hit to his rushing production. On top of that, Nix has a better supporting cast with Waddle, Courtland Sutton, Pat Bryant, Troy Franklin, and Evan Engram.
Considering that ESPN, PFF, and plenty of other sources have Denver’s offensive line ranked No. 1 among offensive line units in 2026, Nix gets the slight nod over Mahomes in fantasy football entering 2026.
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Skyler Carlin is an experienced sports writer and editor with nearly a decade of experience covering the NFL, NBA, MLB, college football, college basketball, and soccer for FanDuel Research and USA Today. Outside of writing, he enjoys cooking, watching movies, and playing video games.
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