NFL Week 4 Survival Pool Strategy: Houston Texans and 4 More Winning Picks
![Houston Texans quarterback CJ. Stroud (7) hands off to Houston Texans running back Nick Chubb (21) during the fourth quarter between the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday September 21, 2025 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Texans 17-10. [Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,x_0,y_0,w_3052,h_1716/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/fantasy_sports_on_si/01k63drteq2qty33cwrq.jpg "Houston Texans quarterback CJ. Stroud (7) hands off to Houston Texans running back Nick Chubb (21) during the fourth quarter between the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday September 21, 2025 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Texans 17-10. [Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union]")
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An NFL survival pool is one of the most popular contests for fans looking to add extra drama to the season.
The concept is simple: each week, players pick one NFL team to win. If that team loses, you’re eliminated. If it wins, you move on. However, the catch is that you can’t pick a team more than once for the entire season. The ultimate goal is to outlast everyone else in your pool.
The challenge and the fun come from striking a balance between risk and reward. Grabbing a heavy favorite early in the season might look like the safest survival pool pick, but using up a top contender early can leave you short-handed later. On the flip side, taking a chance on an under-the-radar team could buy you long-term flexibility, but a loss ends your run before it starts.
A smart survival pool strategy is to look beyond the obvious. Many players try to conserve elite teams for tougher weeks, choosing solid but not spectacular matchups early on. It’s a delicate mix of playing it safe while planning ahead.
Whether you stick with the chalk, hunt for value or take a risky swing, your pick can set the tone for the entire season. With all that said, here’s how we’re approaching Week 4:
*Pick percentage is based on Yahoo Sports pick distribution*
Chalk Picks
Buffalo Bills Over New Orleans Saints (Pick %: 24% Spread: -15.5)
The Bills enter this matchup as 15.5-point favorites at home. Buffalo is rolling to begin the season, as it’s 3-0 and has scored 30+ points in every game. Meanwhile, the Saints are 0-3 and have topped the 21-point mark just once. This is simply a matchup between one of the NFL’s best and worst. The Bills will almost surely guarantee a win, but survivor players may see value in saving a team like Buffalo for later in the season.
Detroit Lions Over Cleveland Browns (Pick %: 30% Spread: -9.5)
The Lions are the most popular survivor pick in Week 4, according to Yahoo Fantasy. It’s interesting given that the Browns just upset the Packers in Week 3 and the Packers defeated the Lions in Week 1. However, even with that in mind, Detroit shouldn’t have an issue surging past Cleveland. Since that Week 1 loss, the Lions have averaged 45 points per game. On the other hand, the Browns are yet to top 17 points in a game this season. The Browns' defense keeps them in games, but the Lions' offense is likely too much for them to handle. However, the Lions are another team that will have a lot more value later in the season.
Under The Radar Picks
Houston Texans Over Tennessee Titans (Pick %: 12% Spread: -7.5)
The Texans appear to be the perfect survivor pick in Week 4. This game is a matchup between two 0-3 teams, but one is drastically different than the other. Houston enters with what is likely its highest win probability in any game this season, yet it has a low selection rate compared to other heavy favorites. The Texans have lost every game by an average of 4.3 points. They’ve been in close games, including a 20-19 loss to the Buccaneers in Week 2. They face the worst team in the NFL by many metrics, which should allow them to get back on track. As a sidenote, no coach has underachieved more in his career in comparison to betting odds more than Brian Callahan, as he has a 3-17 career record against the spread. The Texans would be my survivor pool pick in Week 4 for these reasons.
Denver Broncos Over Cincinnati Bengals (Pick %: 9% Spread: -7.5)
Joe Burrow’s injury has changed everything for the Bengals. While I was confident in Jake Browning’s ability to replicate some of the success he had while filling in for Burrow in 2023, he has been a turnover machine through two games in 2025. Since Burrow’s injury, the Bengals are second-to-last in EPA per play offensively and rank 21st in the same stat defensively. At 1-2 on the season, the Broncos are another team that has lost close games. They were narrowly defeated by the Colts in Week 2, 29-28, and the Chargers in Week 3, 23-20. I like their chances to come out on the winning side at home on Monday night.
One Risky Pick
Los Angeles Chargers Over New York Giants (Pick %: 13% Spread: -6.5)
The Chargers are a popular pick this week in survivor, but let me explain why they’re a risky pick in Week 4. First off, they’ve had one of the trickiest travel schedules thus far. The Chargers opened the season in Brazil, played on Monday night in Las Vegas in Week 2 and followed with a physical home game that they narrowly won against the Broncos. Now they have to fly across the country to face the Giants, where rookie Jaxson Dart will make his first start. At 0-3 and getting thrown into the fire, Dart essentially has nothing to lose. I wouldn’t be surprised if that brings out the best in him. Either way, there is an element of the unknown. Another reason the Chargers are a risky pick is that they have plenty of future value. Los Angeles will likely be a favorite in most of their contests going forward, and they will match up against the Titans in Week 9 and the Raiders in Week 13.
Check out the top Week 4 over/under games to target in fantasy football.
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Michael Rovetto previously served as the staff writer for University of Maryland Athletics for nearly two years. There, he wrote, edited and managed all editorial content for all 20 of Maryland's varsity sports on umterps.com. Rovetto is recognized as a College Sports Communicators district award-winning writer. Many of his stories have also appeared on NCAA.org, garnering national attention. Before graduating from Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism in December 2023, Rovetto wrote for PressBox and Terrapin Sports Central, covering Maryland men's basketball and football. He also has experience in broadcasting, previously working as an analyst and camera operator for Big State Sports, and communication, interning for Shell Shock TBT as its Director of Communication & Content Development.