Christian McCaffrey & 2 Rams Among 2026 Fantasy Football Regression Candidates

Christian McCaffrey, Matthew Stafford, and other fantasy stars headline the top 2026 regression candidates to watch before draft season.

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers during the second half at Levi's Stadium. | Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

There were a ton of huge stars in fantasy football this year; unfortunately, some of them will not reach the same heights in 2026. There will be players who are drafted too high next season, but will fail to live up to their expectations. These are the top regression candidates for 2026.  

QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) looks downfield against the Arizona Cardinals during the second half at SoFi Stadium. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Stafford has put forth an MVP-caliber season and finished as the fantasy QB3 and less than a fantasy point behind the fantasy QB2, Drake Maye. It was a magical season for the veteran quarterback, who bounced back in a way that no one could have expected this season. However, he's about to turn 38 years old in less than a month and has a history of chronic back injuries. We do not expect him to ever come close to replicating this season again.   

RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

McCaffrey once again finished as the fantasy football RB1 in 2025. This isn't something we haven't seen before. When he has these great seasons, he has had a tendency to get injured the following season, and there are a ton of reasons to believe that he is going to regress next season. His 311 carries were a career high, and his 129 targets were the second most of his career. His efficiency also dropped off this season. His 3.9 yards per carry were his lowest in a season when he completed at least three games since his rookie season. When training camp opens this summer, CMC will be 30 years old, which is a common age cliff for running backs. All the signs point to regression. 

RB Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panthers running back Rico Dowdle (5) rushes during the first quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at Bank of America Stadium. | Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

Dowdle had an all-time great month during the 2025 fantasy season. In three games over a four-week span, he posted games of 32.4, 33.9, and 28.1 fantasy points. He still finished as just the RB18. An injury to Chuba Hubbard gave Dowdle a huge boost at that time. Otherwise, he has been very pedestrian all season. Heading into 2026, Dowdle will be a free agent, Hubbard has a significant contract, and it's unlikely Dowdle earns a bell-cow role elsewhere.  

WR Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

Flowers is a similar case to Dowdle; however, I was shocked when I looked at the final fantasy finishes and saw that Flowers finished as the fantasy WR7. A big reason for that was that he scored 29.8 fantasy points in Week 18, after most fantasy seasons had ended. With Flowers being boosted by a handful of massive games, and things in flux in Baltimore, we'd be shocked if he comes anywhere close to being the WR7 next season.  

WR Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Davante Adams (17) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

What Adams did this season doesn't seem like something he can replicate. In 14 games, he caught 14 touchdown passes. While that's not impossible, he did it while only catching 60 passes for 789 yards. He is also now 33 years old. This feels like was the perfect storm for Stafford and Adams this season, and 2025 will be viewed as the last hurrah for both of them.