Avoid these QBs: Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield Highlight QB Busts in Fantasy Football
Every single season, your fantasy drafts come around and you will sit at your table with rankings, ADP, and stats right in front of you. Every single year, those insights play out much differently than the projections suggest. Where leagues are won sits with players drafted below ADP. Where leagues are lost sits with players drafted above ADP. These quarterbacks suggest bust potential in 2025 and I will discuss why you should avoid these 2024 stars.
Jared Goff
Jared Goff came to Detroit with much anger in his sudden trade from the LA Rams. Goff made a Super Bowl and they decided the guy was worse than Matthew Stafford. While Stafford has proven himself a Super Bowl Champion, Goff has proved his own as Detroit has become an NFL front-runner. Despite his success, I come into this season with much concern.
Goff had five games last season with a completion percentage over 80%. He also threw 5 INTs versus Houston and 3 INTs in the NFC Divisional Round where they fell upset to the Washington Commanders. In most formats, Jared Goff finished as QB6, well above my projection this season.
I believe that Jared Goff is not too much improved from his LA Rams version. Ben Johnson was a wizard and they worked an efficient, creative short-to-medium passing game. With the departure of Johnson, regression only seems obvious. It has been a consensus that Ben Johnson has been one of the best coordinator's in recent NFL-history.
My Prediction: QB15 | 2024 Result: QB6
Baker Mayfield
Don't get me wrong — Baker has improved a great deal since his rookie year back in 2018. I just feel a sense of regression following a QB4 season last fall. Mayfield is now in his third straight season with a new OC, and that warrants concern.
The positives for Mayfield stand that he retains Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, on top of a stellar addition of Emeka Egbuka. For sure, Baker may very well have a very good season. That being said, can he repeat a QB4 season? That is a big ask of anyone outside Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
All accounts suggest that OC Josh Grizzard is a brilliant mind. They will stay with the same scheme. For that matter, the Yale OC will probably draw up some fantastic schemes. I truly just state that Mayfield will not repeat QB4 returns. There is too much talent — Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Pat Mahomes — to say that Mayfield remains as a Top 4 fantasy QB. He is not a top-4 QB in the league, plain and simple.
My Prediction: QB9 | 2024 Result: QB4
Baker Mayfield had a touchdown rate of 7.2% last year.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) July 10, 2025
There've been 15 quarterbacks since 2011 with next-season data who were +/- 0.5% in TD rate to Mayfield's 2024 number. Every single one scored fewer fantasy points the following year. The group averaged a drop of 4.2 PPG.
Bo Nix
Bo Nix was breakout star in 2024, recording a QB7 season in just his rookie season. The offense was tailor-made for Nix with a ton of drop down and short routes. That leads me to my prediction.
Sophomore slump? I think so. The NFL talent pool at QB is quite simply, insane. For anyone to repeat a Top-10 season is really going to be difficult. The only QBs that should be a shoe-in is Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow... at least in my estimation. I would not even say that Jalen Hurts or Pat Mahomes are locks. As for Bo Nix, he is the unlikeliest of the bunch to do so.
They will ask Nix to air it out this season and reach a next level of progression. What I saw last season was more easy, college ball type of football. To transition into the next-form should be difficult for Nix and I cannot foresee a QB7 season. Be wary of drafting Nix with limited upside.
My Prediction: QB18 | 2025 Result: QB7
“The expectations are definitely higher, but that’s a good thing. It means you’re doing something right.”#Broncos QB Bo Nix joins me and @ColleenWolfe on Inside Training Camp Live. pic.twitter.com/0yVSkY8anf
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) July 30, 2025
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.