Baker Mayfield 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook, Projections, And Ranking

Baker Mayfield enters 2025 fantasy football as a top-10 quarterback after back-to-back career years with the Buccaneers, but regression risk makes him a tricky draft pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) watches warms up for a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. | Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

The switch to Carolina didn’t go well for Mayfield in 2022. Over his first five starts, he passed for 962 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions with a dismal completion rate (54.9). An ankle injury in mid-October led to two missed games. The Panthers had him on the field for two more matchups (155/2 and 196/0) over the next month before releasing him. 

With Matthew Stafford out for the season, the Rams gave Mayfield five starts to end the year. Unfortunately, he made minimal strides (82-for-129 for 850 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions). Mayfield gained a career-low 6.5 yards per pass attempt on the year with 31 rushes for 89 yards and one touchdown. His value in the run game (189/660/6) has been minimal in his career.

In his first year in Tampa in 2023, Mayfield set career highs in completions (364), pass attempts (566), passing yards (4,044), and touchdowns (29). His completion rate (64.3) was also the best of his career. The Buccaneers rewarded him with a three-year $100 million contract in March. He passed for more than 300 yards in three matchups (317/1, 381/4, and 309/4) in the regular season while relying on his right arm in the postseason (337/3 and 349/3). Mayfield finished 10th in quarterback scoring (328.00) in four-point passing touchdown formats.  

Buccaneers have reworked QB Baker Mayfield’s contract to give him $30M guaranteed in 2026 — a year that previously had no guarantees, per sources.

The length of the contract remains the same, but Mayfield now has financial security heading into next season, which is the final… pic.twitter.com/vkMLFsaxRv

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) July 28, 2025

Mayfield was an absolute beast last season. He set career highs in completions (407), pass attempts (570), receiving yards (4,500), and passing touchdowns (41) for the second consecutive year. His value as a runner (60/378/3) was his best output by a wide margin. 

After a stud game in Week 1 (310/4), Mayfield passed for fewer than 190 yards in three of his next four matchups, but he had six touchdowns in those games. The Bucs' passing game gained over 300 yards in six contests (347/2, 325/4, 370/3, 330/3, 303/2, and 359/5). He had a floor of two scores in 14 of his 18 starts.

Baker Mayfield 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook, Projections, And Ranking

The growth of Mayfield was defined by the Bucs having seven viable receiving options who had a floor of 30 catches. He achieved a high level of success despite missing his top two wide receivers for 13 games, allowing Jalen McMillan to develop. Tampa featured their backs, tight ends, and wide receivers, and they added another talented receiving option (Emeka Egbuka) in this year's draft.

Mayfield was the third-best quarterback (428.80 fantasy points) in four-point passing touchdown formats. The most significant risk to his repeatability is the Bucs have more success in close rushing for touchdowns. Despite his direction, he is the seventh-ranked quarterback this summer. I trust Mayfield to gain 4,500 combined yards, but I expect a regression to about 35 scores. 

Mayfield is currently the QB7 in our 2025 Fantasy Football Rankings.