Buffalo Bills Preview: QB1 Josh Allen, Sleeper Keon Coleman. Dalton Kincaid Comeback

The Buffalo Bills enter the 2025 fantasy football season with a mix of proven stars, sneaky sleepers, and high-upside handcuffs. From Josh Allen’s rushing dominance to breakout buzz around Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman, savvy managers should pay close attention to how this retooled offense could deliver league-winning value across all formats.

Bounce Back Player

Dalton Kincaid, Tight End

Chasing last year’s bums can work in some situations in fantasy sports. Kincaid set a high catch bar (73/673/2) in his rookie season, leading to him ranking fourth at tight end last summer in PPR formats in the high-stakes market. The roadkill tread marks remain on his 2025 fantasy profile, pushing Kincaid to 14th in the tight end rankings this year.

When at his best, he was a borderline top 10 option at his position without adding in future growth. Based on the Bills’ receiving structure, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that Kincaid leads the team in catches this season. To reach a more impactful ceiling, he must improve his touchdown output.

Khalil Shakir missed one game last season (Week 5) and was limited in Week 6.

Tight end Dalton Kincaid in those contests...

Led Bills in:

- Routes run (74%)
- Target share (24%)
- Target rate per route run (27%)
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 5, 2025

With Khalil Shakir listed as "week to week," Kincaid could be the biggest benificiary of his absence.

Sleeper

Keon Coleman, Wide Receiver

Coleman is a math problem for me when trying to evaluate his 2025 potential. I’m not ready to put him in the breakout class, but I can’t dismiss the possibility of that outcome. In his rookie campaign, he averaged only 2.2 catches and 4.4 targets over 13 games while working as a big-play threat (19.2 yards per catch) for Buffalo. His catch rate (50.9%) is somewhat tied to the length of his patterns run.

Keon Coleman saw plenty of snaps and big targets in Year 1, but inconsistency held him back. He ranked 3rd in yards per reception but caught just half his passes. If he cleans that up, he’s a steal in the later rounds. The WR44 in ESPN leagues. pic.twitter.com/8EZoRtWyRP
— Moody (@EricNMoody) August 4, 2025

As a backend WR4/early WR5, Coleman must average over 10.0 fantasy points to be a flex option in PPR formats with three starting wideouts. His size projects well at the goal line, and growth should be expected in his second year in the Bills’ system. I’m treating him as a sleeper with a boom or bust profile from week to week, which will make him difficult to time. If Coleman catches 60 balls, he will be a winning selection this draft season.

Upside Handcuff

Ray Davis, Running Back

The famous words “Show Me The Money” of Rod Tidwell in the Jerry McQuire movie could work in Davis’s favor this year if Buffalo doesn’t step up and pay James Cook. Anytime a football player sits out training camp or doesn’t do his proper preseason work to get ready for live action in September, it invites a potential soft tissue injury. This fantasy draft season, Davis falls into the “must handcuff category” for anyone selecting Cook.

The Bills' backup running back brings scoring potential, which falls in the RB3 range for fantasy teams looking for upside and bye week cover value. Davis wasn’t quite flex-worthy in his rookie season (ranked 40th at running back in PPR formats), but a bump in touches in September and more experience in Buffalo’s system should push him closer to a top 30 running back in 2025. He has a 10th-round ADP (RB42) in the high-stakes market in early August.

Foundation Stud

Josh Allen, Quarterback

The passing opportunity for Allen has been trending lower over the past three seasons, reflected in his five-year low in passing yards (3,731) and passing touchdowns (28) in 2024. He has maintained his high floor while increasing his impact value by scoring more rushing touchdowns over the past two years (15 and 12), despite fewer rushing attempts.

Unfortunately, Buffalo’s offensive profile has been more running back and quarterback-favoring over the past two seasons. Ideally, the fantasy market would love Allen to push over the league average in passing stats while continuing to steal rushing scores. His passing success is driven by the development of his receiving corps, which appears better this year, but he does have some of his wideouts nicked up in early August. Allen remains a fantasy edge, but is it enough to warrant his price point?