Buffalo Bills Team Preview: Key Fantasy Players And Projections

The Buffalo Bills have double-digit wins in six consecutive seasons (70-28) under the direction of Sean McDermott, but they haven’t made it to the Super Bowl. They’ve had a top-six scoring offense over this span while sliding to 10th in offensive yards in 2024. Their defense has declined for the past three seasons, leading to the 11th ranking in points allowed (368) and 17th in yards allowed.

Joe Brady returns as the Bills’ offensive coordinator, a role he took over in November of 2023. Bobby Baich will run their defense for a second season. He’s been in their coaching system since 2017.

Buffalo Bills Offense

Last season, Buffalo ran the ball 48.6% of the time (491/2,230) with a league high 32 touchdowns. Their offensive line allowed only 14 sacks, helping Josh Allen toss a career-low six interceptions. The Bills ranked 27th in completions (329), 26th in pass attempts (520), 17th in passing yards (3,938), and eighth in passing touchdowns (30).

Buffalo Bills Quarterback

Josh Allen, BUF

After setting a career-high in passing touchdowns (37) in 2020, Allen saw regression in this area over the past four years (36, 35, 29, and 28). He offset this decline by being a beast scoring rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons (111/524/15 and 102/531/12). Allen ranked 2nd (457.35), 1st (457.70), and 4th (424.35) in fantasy points over the past three seasons in four-point passing touchdowns formats.

In 2024, his best two fantasy games (55.30 and 44.90) came on the road in Weeks 14 and 15. Allen had a much better completion rate at home (68.2) than on the road (60.9) while having almost the same passing opportunity (28.6 in Buffalo and 27.9 away from home). He had a floor of 25.00 fantasy points in nine of his 19 full starts. Allen posted three touchdowns or more in eight matchups.

The Bills’ offense favors the run game, especially in the run game. For Allen to regain some lost momentum passing the ball, Buffalo needs Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid to make a significant step forward. In addition, their secondary additions (Joshua Palmer, Elijah Moore, and Laviska Shenault) must be more productive than last year’s WR3 (Mack Hollins – 31/378/5) and WR4 (Curtis Samuel – 31/253/1). Khalil Shakir (76/821/4) was the only receiver to catch more than 45 passes.

Fantasy Outlook: Allen has been a trusted fantasy asset over the past five seasons. He sits atop the quarterback rankings in the early high-stakes market despite being outplayed by Lamar Jackson last season. The fantasy market only needs to look at his combined touchdowns (45, 42, 42, 44, and 40) to understand his floor and difference-maker upside. Allen is a foundation player who creates an edge at quarterback.

EVERY. SINGLE. JOSH ALLEN. HIGHLIGHT. THIS. SEASON.

46 MINUTES AND 26 SECONDS OF PERFECTION. pic.twitter.com/vXZCkTHWWG
— BillsMuse (@BillsMusee) January 29, 2025

Other Options: Mitchell Trubisky, Mike White, Shane Buechele

Buffalo Bills Running Backs

The Bills’ running backs rushed for 1,698 yards and 20 touchdowns last season on 372 carries. They gained 4.6 yards per carry with 13 runs of 20 yards or more. Their backs caught 67 of their 82 targets for 731 yards and a league high eight receiving touchdowns.

James Cook, BUF

Cook comes off a regression season in touches (239 – 281) while missing one game with a toe issue in Week 5. His step back in touches was due to Buffalo rotating in two other backs. Despite his weaker opportunity, the Bills beefed up his value in scoring (21 touchdowns – including the postseason). They had him on the field for 44.9% of their plays.

He finished eighth in running back scoring (266.70) in PPR formats, averaging 1.09 fantasy points per touch. Cooks was at his best in five matchups (28.50, 28.30, 26.30, 27.60, and 28.40 fantasy points), helped by a floor of two scores in each game. Buffalo gave him 15.7 touches per game for his 19 starts, highlighted by six games (23, 22, 20, 20, 23, and 20).

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the New England Patriots during the second half at Gillette Stadium. | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Fantasy Outlook: Cook’s scoring accounted for 40.9% of his fantasy points (266.70) in PPR formats last season. He ranks 14th at running back in early May in the high-stakes market. His floor should be about 1,300 combined yards, with a wide scoring range. Cook helps his fantasy value in catches, but he must see more chances to be consistent weekly. I expect the fantasy market to continue to fade his previous success, making him a player who falls into the steady value category.

Ray Davis, BUF

Davis was active in the Bills’ offense in six games (18.20, 11.70, 13.70, 10.90, and 14.50 fantasy points) while being a non-factor in 12 matchups (fewer than 4.00 fantasy points in each contest). He brings scoring value at the goal line, and Buffalo will give him some pass-catching chances (17/189/2).

In his freshman season at Temple, Davis gained 1,117 combined yards, 10 touchdowns, and 15 catches on 208 touches. The following season, he struggled over four games, losing his starting job and jumping to Vanderbilt in 2021. Davis regained a prominent role over the past two years, leading to 2,663 combined yards with 29 touchdowns and 62 catches on 232 chances. His best play came in 2023 (199/1,129/14 with 33 catches for 323 yards and seven scores) with Kentucky.

Davis had growth in 2023 in college, especially in his playmaking as a receiver. He offered vision and short-area quickness, with a nose for the endzone. His acceleration range appears to be about 20 yards of giddy-up while offering 4.5 speed in the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine.

Fantasy Outlook: Buffalo gave Davis 130 touches last season, showcasing their trust in him. They will continue to rotate backs, suggesting more touches for their RB2. Ideally, he needs to push Ty Johnson (497 combined yards with four touchdowns and 18 catches on 59 touches) into a minimal role. Davis also has the size to be more active at the goal line.

Next step: 750 combined yards with over seven scores and 25 catches, making him a backend RB3 in PPR formats. His price point this year should make it easy to handcuff him with James Cook.

Ty Johnson, BUF

The Bills used Johnson as a scheme player in some matchups last season, leading to some big plays and touchdowns. He beat the Lions with five catches for 114 yards in Week 5 while also surprising in two other matchups (46 combined yards with a touchdown and three catches and 70 combined yards with a score and two catches). In his other 17 games, Johnson had 283 yards with two touchdowns and 12 catches.

Fantasy Outlook: Johnson provides veteran insurance at running back for Buffalo while offering the most upside catching the ball. He’ll be found in the free agent pool in most redraft formats.

Other Options: Darrynton Evans, Frank Gore

Buffalo Bills Wide Receivers

The Bills’ wide receivers ranked poorly in catches (190 – 20th), receiving yards (2,400 – 22nd), and targets (295 – 22nd) last season, but they scored 18 touchdowns (11th).

Khalil Shakir, BUF

In his third season with the Bills, Shakir emerges as their top receiving option (76/821/4 on 100 targets). Despite his success, he finished 37th in wide receiver scoring (182.50) in PPR formats. His top games (9/107 and 5/106/1) lacked explosiveness, but Shakir scored over 10.00 fantasy points in 14 of his 18 starts, giving him a consistency factor as a flex option in leagues with three wide slots in their starting lineup.

The Bills gave him seven targets or fewer in 73.7% of his matchups. Shakir caught 78.3% of his targets. Buffalo gave Shakir a four-year extension for $60.2 million in February, showing their confidence in him.

Fantasy Outlook: In mid-May, Shakir ranks 42nd at wide receiver in the high-stakes market. A fantasy drafter should consider him a steady wide receiving option until he regains some of his lost yards per catch (10.8 in 2024 and 15.7 in 2023). Over 17 games, he has the tools to be an 80/1,000/7 player.

Keon Coleman, BUF

Coleman had the look of a much better player in his rookie season, but his results on the field suggest pumping the brakes on his 2025 outlook. He missed four midseason games with a wrist injury. His catch rate (50.9) was extremely low, but the Bills used him as a deep threat (19.2 yards per catch, 12 catches of 20 yards or more, and four long bombs).

He finished one catch or fewer in nine of his 16 games, showcasing his downside risk. His two tease showings (4/125 and 5/70/1) came in back-to-back starts before his injury.

Over three seasons at Michigan State and Florida State, Coleman caught 115 passes for 1,506 yards and 19 touchdowns in 34 games. His best season (59/798/7) came in 2022, while he set a career-high in touchdowns (11) in 2023. He gained over 100 yards five times in his career (9/116/2, 5/155/1, 8/107/1, 9/122/3, and 9/140/1), showcasing workhorse WR1-type stats.

Coleman brings a jump-ball skill set with some value in the open field. His speed (4.6 40-yard dash) limits his range to test a defense. He’ll win his share of fades at the goal line and offer sneaky value vs. zone defense. Coleman must prove his worth when pressed at the line of scrimmage, but he had many wins in college when tested in tight coverage. Think Marquise Colston and Mike Evans with less speed and a weaker overall resume. He must improve his release and route running to command more targets.

Keon Coleman in 2024:

- 13 games
- 29 catches
- 556 yards
- 19.2 YPC (led all rookie WRs)
- 4 TD

Only rookie in the top 10 for rookie receiving yards to play fewer than 14 games.

Deep threat demon. The aura is off the charts 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/x22euLY7Gj
— BillsMuse (@BillsMusee) June 3, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: Coleman comes off the board as a backend WR5 in PPR formats. A drafter with vision will be tempted to draft him before his ADP. His first goal is improving his catch rate, followed by getting more chances at the goal. Based on the possession type, wide receivers added in the offseason, Coleman will need to earn his keep in the deep passing game again in 2025 – a possible 50 catches for 750 yards and a run at over seven scores.

Joshua Palmer, BUF

Palmer failed to make an impact last season. He caught 39 of his 64 targets for 584 yards and one touchdown, leading to only three playable games (4/63, 2/63/1, and 6/78). The Chargers gave him four targets or fewer in 10 of his 15 games. For the second year in a row, Palmer worked deeper downfield (15.3 and 15.0 yards per catch).

When at his best in 2022, he set career highs in catches (72), receiving yards (769), and targets (107) while working closer to the line of scrimmage (10.7 YPC). Palmer missed Week 3 with elbow and calf issues. His season ended in Week 18 with a heel injury.

Fantasy Outlook: Buffalo signed Palmer to a three-year deal for $36 million in March. He has 10 touchdowns over 58 games with LA. His versatility/opportunity puts him in the WR3 range for the Bills, but he’ll face competition for targets with Elijah Moore and Curtis Samuel. Based on this, Palmer will be a late-round fantasy flier with low-scoring upside.

Elijah Moore, BUF

In 2022, Moore fell out of favor with the Jets’ coaching staff, leading to a disappointing season (37/446/1 on 65 targets). He only posted two games (2/64/1 and 6/60) with more than 10.00 fantasy points.

The Browns gave Moore a career-high 104 targets the following year, but he caught only 56.7% of his chances for 640 yards and two touchdowns. Moore gained over 61 yards receiving in only one contest (4/83) while posting four other double-digit fantasy points games.

Cleveland gave him respectable targets (101) in 2024, but Moore gained only 8.8 yards per catch while setting a career-high in catches (61). He scored only four times over his last 50 games. Moore ranked 52nd in fantasy points (136.20) in PPR formats.

Fantasy Outlook: Moore falls into the wild-card category in 2025. His college resume suggested more speed and a higher NFL floor. He’ll start the season at age 25, calling for a waiver wire eye to see if his game reaches a high level under the direction of Josh Allen.

Curtis Samuel, BUF

Samuel had two steady seasons (64/656/4 and 62/613/4) catching the ball with Washington. The change of running back options in 2023 led to a minimal role in the run game (7/39/1), coming after a much better opportunity in 2022 (38/187/1). The Commanders gave him WR3 snaps in 2023. When at his best in 2020 with the Panthers, Samuel gained 1,051 combined yards with five touchdowns and 77 catches. He gained 10.7 yards per catch in his career, making him a chain-mover with some scoring upside.

In his first year with the Bills, Samuel was worthless to the fantasy market in 12 of his 13 starts. He played well in Week 11 (5/58/1), Week 18 (7/52), and Week 19 (3/68/1). Two of his three scores came in the postseason.

Fantasy Outlook: Samuel has play-making value, and a second year playing with Josh Allen should lead to a better connection. Unfortunately, he must prove himself on the field before being added to any fantasy teams. The Bills only have him five carries, leading to 14 yards.

Other Options: Laviska Shenault, Jalen Virgil, Tyrell Shavers

Buffalo Bills Tight Ends

The Bills’ tight ends caught 72 of their 118 targets in 2024 for 800 yards and four touchdowns, which aligns with what the fantasy market hoped to get from Dalton Kincaid in his sophomore season. Unfortunately, their tight end stats were divided among four players – Kincaid (44/448/2), Dawson Knox (22/311/1), Quinton Morris (5/72/1), and Zach Davidson (1/5).

Dalton Kincaid, BUF

Buffalo added more firepower to their offense by trading up to get TE Dalton Kincaid with the 25th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. He projects as a chain mover with scoring upside. His route running, hands, and release project well, but Kincaid does need to get stronger to defeat more physical defenders and earn more playing time when asked to be used as a block/pass option.

Over his four full seasons in college, Kincaid caught 174 passes for 2,609 yards and 35 touchdowns despite having limited experience in high school. In 2022, his game reached an impactful level (70/890/8 on 96 targets), highlighted by a sensational game (16/234/1) against USC. He also posted three other strong showings (7/107/2, 11/99, and 5/102/1).

Kincaid missed one of his possible 19 starts in his rookie season, leading to 81 catches for 777 yards and three touchdowns on 102 targets. He had a productive six-game stretch (8/75, 5/65/1, 10/81, 5/51/1, 6/46, and 5/38) midseason, followed by three dull showings (5/21, 0/0, and 1/7). Buffalo got him more involved over his final four starts (4/87, 7/84, 3/59/1, and 5/45). His catch rate (80.2) graded well, despite having five drops, Kincaid gained only 9.2 yards per catch.

Kincaid went down as a fantasy bust in 2024. He finished 30th in tight end scoring (100.80) in PPR formats while sitting out four games (knee and collarbone issues). Over the first 10 weeks, Kincaid posted three double-digit games (13.10, 11.10, and 13.10) in fantasy points while being unplayable after Week 10.

Fantasy Outlook: This season, the fantasy market in early drafts priced him as the 13th-best tight end option, much lower than 2024 (4th tight end). Kincaid has a last year’s bum feel, with more competition for targets based on the Bills’ added wide receiving depth. With 17 games played, his floor should be 65 catches for 650 yards and about five touchdowns. He should be Buffalo's second option in the passing game, making an excellent value in 2025.

Dalton Kincaid career highlights pic.twitter.com/IMIMcevsD6
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 19, 2025

Dawson Knox, BUF

In 2023, Knox barely had a role over his first seven games (15/102/1 over 28 targets), followed by five missed weeks due to a wrist injury that required surgery. Josh Allen only looked his way 11 times over his final seven games (9/97/2).

Even with Dalton Kincaid missing some time and underperforming expectations, Knox had a career low in targets (33). He finished with 22 catches for 311 yards and one score while working more downfield (14.1 yards per catch – seven catches of 20 yards or more).

Fantasy Outlook: At this point in his career, Knox is only a handcuff to Dalton Kincaid with a chance to average between two and three targets per game. He’ll get some scores in close on play-action passes, with an opportunity to surprise in a game or two. Knox should be found in the free-agent pool in all 12-team leagues.

Other Options: Jackson Hawes, Zach Davidson, Keleki Latu

Buffalo Bills Kicker

Tyler Bass, BUF

Over his five seasons with the Bills, Bass made 131 of his 155 field goals (84.4%) while delivering on 264 of his 274 extra-point tries. He’s made 16 of his 23 kicks from 50 yards or more. Last year, Buffalo scored 65 touchdowns (2nd) and created 29 field goal attempts.

Fantasy Outlook: Bass finished 4th (165.90), 13th (148.30), 7th (156.70), 18th (140.30), and 10th (154.20) in fantasy points in his career. Besides the potential for bad weather games late in the year, Bass remains a top-12 kicker. Buffalo’s increased success scoring in close has hurt his field goal chances in back-to-back seasons.

Defense

The Bills bumped to 12th defending the run (1,963 yards), with offenses averaging 25.6 carries. They gave up 4.5 yards per rush, with 13 rushing touchdowns (14 in 2023). Ball carriers had 11 runs of 20 yards or more. Buffalo fell to 22nd in pass defense (4,100 yards) with 28 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and 39 sacks.