Fantasy Football Quarterback Debate: Matthew Stafford vs. Trevor Lawrence
A common agreement across all fantasy football analysts is that the quarterback position is as deep as ever in 2026. The sharp strategy is not to jump on the position fast. Rather, it is to fade the top options and win through sleeper, high-upside selections. Two hot late-round picks on the market are Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence. They are the basis of today's quarterback debate.
The Case for Matthew Stafford
Stafford reached astounding heights in 2025 at the ripe age of 37. He won the MVP award and did so on the heels of his stunning count of 46 passing touchdowns and just 8 interceptions. Stafford passed for over 4,700 yards, leading the NFL by over 300 yards over anyone else. Stafford finished as fantasy football's QB3.
It is agreed upon that Stafford is set for a 2026 regression. The question is: how much does he fall? Is Stafford still top-5 capable, or is he falling off the planet? Two years ago, Stafford was the QB21 in fantasy football, so the jump was quite large itself.
Our projections definitely expect Stafford to fall outside of the top-10 range. The Rams are tied with the Bills for the best offense in the NFL, per the FPI. That must be worth something, right? It certainly is, but we must consider the details.
In 2025, the Rams passed the ball overwhelmingly in the red zone, with 103 passing attempts and 85 rushing attempts, to a 55% pass rate. For comparison, the NFL team average in 2025 was approximately 51%. It resulted in 31 passing touchdowns and just 15 rushing touchdowns.
I am accounting for a normalization in 2026, which projects Stafford to have 34 passing touchdowns. The betting lines are even lower on Stafford, listing his over/under of 29 passing touchdowns.
The worst part about owning Stafford will be the lack of rushing upside. He does not scramble ever. Stafford had negative-7 red-zone rushing yards in 2025, and we accounted for zero rushing yards all season long. He rings up at the register as fantasy football's QB16.
The Case for Trevor Lawrence
In 2025, Lawrence reached new heights of his own. Liam Coen's latest experiment brought Lawrence to QB4 status in fantasy football. He passed for 4,007 yards with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The most pleasant surprise was Lawrence's rushing output, which went for 359 yards and 9 touchdowns.
In year two of Coen as the head coach, the upside shall remain. The team traded for Jakobi Meyers midseason, and they plan to have a full, year-long game plan to leverage the trio of Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr., and Meyers.
The FPI lists the Jaguars as the NFL's 18th-best offense. Much of that is surely due to the loss of Travis Etienne Jr. The team has one of the weakest running back rooms in the NFL, with Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr. We do not view that as much of a negative for Lawrence, but rather as a passing-plus, expecting a higher passing rate, especially in the red zone.
My projections have the Jaguars' expected pass rate at 58%, slightly above their put-up average. While it brings Lawrence to a 215-yard-per-game projection of 215 yards per game, there is considerable variance and upside for Lawrence. He expects to add 20 rushing yards per game and a season total of 25.4 passing + rushing touchdowns.
Lawrence is projected as a QB15. However, he is in thin margins with his counterparts. The margin of QB5 (Joe Burrow) to Lawrence (QB15) is a total of 1.2 fantasy points per game (4 points = 1 touchdown). Hence, the quarterback position is labeled as "deep." Surely, bet on the players who have the coaching, weapons, and general skill set to rise above their expected average.
Final Verdict: Draft Stafford or Lawrence?
I think the case is quite clear. Lawrence may lack the weapons that Stafford has, but he does have a deeper room. Perhaps that offsets the fact that the Jaguars are a worse overall offense. Not for nothing, the Rams, the highest-rated NFL offense, can only fail to meet expectations while the Jaguars have the world to prove wrong.
I am most attentive to the rushing upside of a quarterback. In 2026, that is what makes an elite fantasy football quarterback. There are Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. There are also Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and Drake Maye. They all use their legs, and so does Lawrence. For that reason, Lawrence is absolutely the right draft pick around this late-round ADP range.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.