Fantasy Football Regression Candidates: Will Christian McCaffrey Fall Off The Running Back Cliff?

Every fantasy football season, some players explode onto the scene and exceed expectations, while others fail to reach the expectations of the year prior. These are the top regression candidates for the 2026 fantasy football season.

QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Stafford had a magical season in which he won the NFL MVP and finished as the fantasy QB3 overall at the age of 37. However, it's going to be difficult for history to repeat itself. It's already difficult for any pure pocket passer to be the QB3 overall, and Stafford is an extreme case.

Last season, he rushed for exactly one yard and zero touchdowns. Now, he is a 38-year-old quarterback with a history of back injuries, and all of a sudden, there are questions surrounding his elite WR corps.

Puka Nacua was in rehab for his overall behavior last time we were updated, and could be facing a suspension for allegedly making antisemitic comments and drunkenly biting women. Davante Adams is now 33 years old and was openly involved in trade conversations this offseason. A lot will have to go right for Stafford to come close to matching his 2025 campaign.

RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

This is the most obvious regression candidate for a multitude of reasons. He has a lengthy history of injuries and will turn 30 in June. Last season, he had the most touches of his career with 311 carries and 102 receptions on 129 targets.

This goes beyond just injury risk, though that's very real. Last season, he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry, which was his least efficient season since his rookie year of 2017, excluding his three-game season in 2020. He also didn't look nearly as explosive on film as he did back in 2023.

Last season, he finished as not only the RB1 overall, but the top overall fantasy player. We don't expect him to come close to achieving either of those feats again this season.

WR Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals

Wilson finished last season as the WR10 overall. However, his splits were drastically different when Marvin Harrison Jr was and wasn't injured.

In 2025, Wilson finished with 78 receptions for 1,006 yards and seven touchdowns on 126 targets. Harrison missed five games last season, and in those games, Wilson caught 46 of 68 targets for 598 yards and four touchdowns. Which means in the other 12 games, he totaled just 32 receptions, 58 targets, 408 yards, and three touchdowns. The fantasy season of his career prior to 2025 was 47 receptions for 548 yards and four touchdowns.

Now he enters 2026 with a healthy Harrison, a new coaching staff, and rookie running back Jeremiyah Love, whom they just drafted with the third-overall pick, with a clear intent to run the ball more after they also extended James Conner and signed Tyler Allgeier this offseason. The numbers would have been enough to sell his probable regression, but the situation seals it.

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