Justin Herbert Fantasy Football Rankings, Forecast, Projections: Post-Hype Breakout Incoming?

Justin Herbert enters 2025 as a high-upside fantasy football QB with rushing value, new weapons, and bounce-back potential after an inconsistent season.

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) looks to pass during the second quarter against the Houston Texans in an AFC wild card game at NRG Stadium. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

After a frustrating 2024 season filled with inconsistency and injury setbacks, Justin Herbert enters 2025 with renewed optimism and an improved supporting cast. With added firepower following Ladd McConkey's breakout season in Omarion Hampton and Tre Harris, Herbert has sneaky top-10 upside if he can stay healthy and reclaim his early-career form.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert threw the ball well in 2022 over his first two starts (279/3 and 334/3), but a late hit in Week 2 led to a rib injury that appeared to affect his play over the next few weeks. His running value (54/147) sharply declined from his two previous seasons, especially in scoring (no rushing touchdowns). 

On the positive side, Herbert set a career-high in completions (477), pass attempts (699), and completion rate (68.2). He threw two touchdowns or fewer in 15 of his final 16 starts, with his best showing over this span coming in Week 12 (312/3). Herbert passed for more than 300 yards five times on the year.

Over his first 12 starts in 2023, Herbert averaged 36.6 passes (4.5 lower than in 2022). His top fantasy value came in Week 3 (416/3), Week 8 (299/3), and Week 10 (338/4). He left Week 14 with a finger injury that led to four more missed games to end the year. Herbert had a rebound in his play in the run game (52/228/3), but he gained only 6.9 yards per pass attempt (7.4 over his first two seasons).

The Chargers downgraded Herbert’s passing opportunity to 29.6 passes per game last season, making him an upside game manager. His worst game came in the postseason, when he threw four interceptions (more than he threw over his 17 starts in the regular season). Herbert only had one outing with more than two touchdowns (293/3). 

He opened up the year with five dull passing games (144/1, 130/2, 125/1, 179/1, and 237/1). Herbert was trending higher in four (349/0, 279/2, 282/2, and 297/2) of his following five matchups, highlighted by 25% of his 100 completions gaining 20 yards or more. His only other outcome with over 300 yards passing came in Week 18 (346/2).  Nine of his 23 passing touchdowns came over his final four games.

Justin Herbert 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

When reviewing his final stats from last year, Herbert projected more of a fantasy quarterback liability than an asset. He somehow finished 12th in scoring (329.10) in four-point passing touchdowns leagues while scoring under 20.00 fantasy points in nine games. 

Herbert has a high-floor possession wide receiver (Ladd McConkey), and Quentin Johnston should be better in his third year in the Chargers’ offense. The addition of ultra-talented Omarion Hampton will be a big win for this offense, and Tre Harris gives the Chargers another player to test a defense in the deep passing game. His only missing receiving link comes at the tight end position.

I expect this offense to run the ball more effectively in 2025, which should help Los Angeles keep their defense off the field. Longer drives and more scoring chances give Herbert a chance at more pass attempts and an increase in touchdowns. When adding his value in the run game (69/306/2 in 2024), I expect a push to about 4,500 combined yards with at least 30 touchdowns. Based on his early quarterback ADP (17th), I view him as a value QB2 this summer.

Herbert is currently the 14th-ranked player in our 2025 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings.