Justin Jefferson 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook, Projections, Ranking

Get Justin Jefferson’s 2025 fantasy football outlook, including his stats, projections, draft value, and WR1 potential with the Vikings.

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) against the Los Angeles Rams during an NFC wild card game at State Farm Stadium. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Justin Jefferson remains one of the NFL’s most dominant wide receivers, stacking up elite production year after year despite injuries and quarterback changes. Entering 2025, he’s locked in as a first-round fantasy football pick with the upside to challenge for the WR1 crown if the Vikings' passing volume increases.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

Jefferson set career-highs in catches (128), receiving yards (1,809), and targets (184) in 2022, leading the league in all three categories. As a result, he led wide receivers in fantasy scoring (369.00) in PPR formats. His best impact value came in seven matchups (9/184/2, 10/150/1, 10/193/1, 11/223, 12/123/1, and 12/133/1), but Jefferson let fantasy teams down in four games (3/14, 3/33, 1/15, and 4/38). The Vikings gave him double-digit targets in 11 of his starts, giving him a floor of 10 catches in six contests.

The star power of Jefferson shined again over the first four games (9/150, 11/159, 7/149/1, and 6/85/2) in 2023, but a Week 5 hamstring issue led to seven missed matchups. A chest issue resulted in another early exit in Week 14. Over his final four starts, he helped fantasy teams in two games (6/141/1 and 12/192/1). Jefferson managed to gain 1,074 yards with five touchdowns and 68 catches in what was really eight weeks of action.

Justin Jefferson is so dang smooth 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/Ot61wG37w5

— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) August 19, 2025

In his fifth season with Minnesota, Jefferson extended his streak to five with over 1,000 yards receiving. He checked the winning boxes in catches (103), receiving yards (1,533), touchdowns (10), and targets (154). Despite his elite success, Jefferson gained over 100 yards in only five matchups (4/133/1, 8/115, 7/137, 7/132/1, and 10/144/2). He had a floor of seven catches in eight games, all of which came after Week 6. 

In his time with the Vikings, Jefferson has 131 catches of 20 yards or more (26.5%). He’s averaged 6.4 catches for 97 yards and 0.53 touchdowns over 77 games (19.28 FPPG). 

Justin Jefferson 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook, Projections, Ranking

Last season, Ja’Marr Chase outscored Jefferson by 85.30 fantasy points (over five per game), and the Bengals project to throw the ball much more than Minnesota this year based on their gap in passing attempts (652 to 548) in 2024. Over the previous two years with Kirk Cousins behind center, the Vikings threw the ball more than Cincinnati (2023 – 631 to 615 and 2022 – 672 to 610). In the end, Jefferson was the second-best wide receiver in 2024, but he needs J.J. McCarthy to throw more to tighten the wide receiver gap at the top end.

Jefferson should be a top-six player drafted again this year, while coin flipping between him and a rebound season by CeeDee Lamb. Three running backs (Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Saquon Barkley) could get drafted before Jefferson as well. He has the skill set to post a 120/1,800/15 season if the stars align, and Minnesota throws more in 2025.

Jefferson is currently the WR3 in our 2025 PPR Rankings.