Michael Penix Jr. Is Not The Fantasy Football Sleeper You Think He Is In 2025

Explore Michael Penix’s 2025 fantasy football outlook as the Atlanta Falcons’ starting quarterback, highlighting his upside, injury risks, and draft value.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) throws a pass against the Carolina Panthers in the second quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Michael Penix Jr. came to the NFL with six years of experience at Indiana and Washington. He suffered a torn right ACL in 2018, a right shoulder issue in 2019, another torn right ACL in 2020, and a left shoulder injury in 2021. The switch to Washington led to two excellent seasons (25-3), resulting in 9,644 combined yards, 74 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. His knee issues led to only 100 rushing yards on 70 attempts with seven touchdowns. His passing stats were helped by averaging 36.0 passes per game.

After watching 10+ minutes of highlights of Penix, there is no doubt that he can have success passing the ball at the next level if given a clean pocket and time to throw. Of all the throws I watched, he was rushed or forced to move outside the pocket on four plays, suggesting he will be a much different player in the NFL. Washington gave up only 19 sacks in 2022 (7) and 2023 (12), showing the weakness in the pass rush in the PAC-12. When needing to drive the ball, Penix did need to add more effort from his base and shoulder to execute the pass.

NFL defenses will force Penix to move to test his legs and accuracy. He turns 25 on May 8th, and I’m never a fan of drafting older quarterbacks early. His previous injuries and the expected higher number of hits make him a risky investment as a franchise-type quarterback.

MICHAEL PENIX JR. WITH A DART TO KYLE PITTS ON 4TH & GOAL TO TIE THE GAME 🤯 😱

WHAT A TIME FOR THE ROOKIE’S FIRST NFL TD 🔥

(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/y8FQOUc3Dw

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 30, 2024

Atlanta rewarded Penix with a four-year contract of $22.9 million in June last season after selecting him eighth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. WR Rome Odunze made his job easier over the past two seasons at Washington, and his ability to get open and make plays helped Penix get paid in the NFL.

The Falcons gave Penix three starts to end 2024. He passed for 737 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions while showing weakness in his completion rate (58.0). Defenses sacked him three times in his start. 

Michael Penix Jr. 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook, Projections, Ranking

The quarterback opportunity in Atlanta is in the hands of Penix this year, but Kirk Cousins is still on the depth chart. In the early draft season, he ranks 22nd at quarterback. The Falcons have two talented wide receiving options (Bijan Robinson and Drake London) while still waiting to see if Kyle Pitts can find his expected stride in his fifth season in the NFL. Penix falls into a wild-card area for me until he proves himself over a long season. At best, league-average passing touchdowns with more dull passing games than winning outings.

Penix is currently the QB24 in our 2025 Fantasy Football Rankings.