The Perfect First Round of a 12-Team Half-PPR Fantasy Football Draft

Today, we will attempt to craft the "perfect" first round of a half-PPR fantasy football draft. This is not so much about what will happen as about what should happen. According to the sharpest of the average draft positions (Underdog, FFPC, NFFC), combined with our own projections, these are fair values for where each player should go in a 12-team draft with high preparation and expert analysis.

1.1 — Bijan Robinson

Look for Tua Tagovailoa to feed Robinson on the drop-downs, just as he had with De'Von Achane. Robinson is my RB1 in all formats when factoring in risk profiles that mainly weigh injury risk. In consensus ADP, Robinson is going at pick 2.0.

1.2 — Jahmyr Gibbs

In leagues where Gibbs does not go first overall, he will almost certainly be taken second overall. No fantasy managers are all that keen on risking such a high pick on Christian McCaffrey and all his soft-tissue ailments of the years.

1.3 — Ja'Marr Chase

Our numbers favor Puka Nacua as the WR1. However, the margin is very thin. The upside must be weighed just as much as any projections. In such a paper-thin margin, we cannot always trust the numbers to be dead-on. Chase has higher upside, with the Rams rated as the NFL's best offense, and thus has less room to improve than the Bengals, who can be the best in the NFL if all goes right.

1.4 — Puka Nacua

Nacua is going as the second wide receiver in virtually every fantasy football draft. His ADP is 4.6, or 1.6 spots ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and 2.9 spots above Amon-Ra St. Brown.

1.5 — Christian McCaffrey

I am going to be very scared to draft McCaffrey this season. Nonetheless, he is the RB1 in my projections if we assume 17 games are played. Contrary to popular belief, he did play all 17 games in 2025, so you never know...

1.6 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Smith-Njigba's ADP is about 5th overall in half-PPR formats. He is neck and neck with St. Brown for my WR3 status. Despite a coaching change at offensive coordinator, the Seahawks ace has minimal risk given that he can run any route from any position on the field.

1.7 — Amon-Ra St. Brown

Look for the play-action style of Drew Petzing's offense to revitalize efficiency in Detroit. It will favor Gibbs, and it will favor St. Brown in motion and in the slot, running east-to-west. I prefer him to St. Brown by the slightest of margins.

1.8 — James Cook

While Jonathan Taylor is going 8th overall in most drafts, Cook is close behind. I firmly weigh him as a better selection for a high-workload view back on an elite offense. Do not be so sure that Taylor has less red zone volume stolen by his quarterback (Daniel Jones) than Cook loses to Josh Allen.

1.9 — Jonathan Taylor

Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor. These are the two workhorse demons of the 2020s. At age 27, Taylor is going to continue to rumble with very low fantasy risk.

1.10 — CeeDee Lamb

Not long ago, Lamb was the WR1 in fantasy football. Yes, the Cowboys have George Pickens. No, I do not care. One Cowboy will finish a top-5 wideout, and it's more likely to be Lamb, whom they paid a big contract.

1.11 — Chase Brown

This is the range where any given league may find varying differences in draft picks. There are 9 total players going within 4.4 draft picks of each other in ADP. I will favor Brown, who is my RB8 in half-PPR formats. Even though the Bengals expect a rather low average of rushing yards per game. Brown will own over 70% of it and be a major red-zone threat. He had the 8th-most red zone touches of any running back in 2025.

1.12 — Justin Jefferson

Both Jefferson and Lamb can become the WR1 in fantasy football. They have the talent to do so if the offense proves favorable. Jefferson is going at pick 13.5 and 11th overall.

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