Must-Avoid Players in Every Round of a Fantasy Football Draft: JK Dobbins, 9 Others

At cost, these players are bad selections to make in your fantasy football draft.

Aug 3, 2026; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins (27) during training camp at Broncos Park. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

There is no such thing as a certainty in this world. We have seen this over and over again. Fantasy football players enter the season with risk to their profile, and it goes the worst possible way. I am a firm believer in a risk-versus-reward strategy and being sharp in its analysis to deliver fantasy victory. When analyzing risk versus reward, these players are not worth their average draft position.

Round 1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Smith-Njigba is being drafted as the WR3 in fantasy football after setting the standard with an insane 36% target share in 2025. That brought the Seahawks wideout to WR2 status in fantasy football. However, a regression is very possible.

Seattle has lost their offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak. There is a reason they lost the man. He is very good, and the Raiders deemed him their priority hire and an offensive mind to fuel the careers of Fernando Mendoza and Ashton Jeanty.

The risk to Smith-Njigba is that they can see an offensive regression. Brian Fluery will take the reins from Kubiak, a product of Kyle Shanahan's 49ers. Fluery may end up being good, but it is his first time on the job. The risk is evident at ADP, more so than CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Round 2: Jeremiyah Love

Love is being drafted towards the back of Round 2. Nonetheless, he is in this range, and he absolutely shall not be drafted within it.

The Cardinals are the NFL's 27th-rated offense, per the power index. They expect to use Tyler Allgeier with some James Conner mixed in. Love's ceiling is capped in terms of usage. We are confidently below consensus on Love, who is outside of our top-20 running backs. Josh Jacobs and Omarion Hampton are much safer investments in this ADP range.

Round 3: Malik Nabers

Nabers is coming off an ACL injury, and he had a setback in his recovery this past offseason. There is a belief that Nabers plays Week 1, but he will certainly be limited in his skill level. Nabers is unlikely to play near 90% in Week 1, let alone 100%.

5/8

Fantasy-wise, the ACL alone is concerning.

Wide receivers average roughly a 28% decline in fantasy points per game in year one after ACL.

Add in the chance Nabers misses the first several games of 2026, and he becomes much harder to trust in redraft. 👇#FantasyFootball

— Tom Christ, PT, DPT, OCS, FAAOMPT (@FantasyInjuryT) July 10, 2026

On a points-per-game basis, Nabers is an undoubted WR1 in fantasy football when healthy. He will not be fully healthy for a large chunk of the early season. Going less than 5 spots earlier in ADP are both Chris Olave and Rashee Rice. Hand me them all day long with similar upside to Nabers.

Round 4: Cam Skattebo

I would err on the side of mild concern about Skattebo as a high-upside draft pick. This is a player who was drafted in the fourth round of the 2025 NFL Draft by a different coaching staff. The team has pointed towards Skattebo retaining his workload in year No. 2, but we take that with a grain of salt.

NFL teams commonly roll with the hot hand when dealing with running backs outside the league's elite. It is very possible that Tyrone Tracy Jr. works his way deeper into this share. It is also possible that Skattebo sees a statistical drop-off. He only averaged 4.1 yards per attempt in his rookie season, despite playing on a favorable offense.

Round 5: David Montgomery

The Texans have confirmed that Montgomery will work in a majority split with Woody Marks. The team also indulged in Jawhar Jordan as a 2025 rookie. He is worthy of a rushing share that could touch 10%.

I would be concerned with Montgomery's upside. He is perhaps the least penalizing player on this entire list, but we trust our projections, and they list Montgomery as a running back owning just about 50% of this offense. Montgomery is lingering around RB30 in fantasy football, per our analysis. Quinshon Judkins and Bucky Irving have significantly higher upside, as they were drafted around the same ADP.

Round 6: Bhayshul Tuten

.@_John_Shipley on Chris Rodriguez:

“Rodriguez stood out when rushing in team drills on the first day of pads on Monday because of the way he was able to churn out yards after contact.

That is exactly what he seemed to do on Thursday, with every carry going for positive yards… pic.twitter.com/4bTnEiCyB6

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) August 6, 2026

The Chris Rodriguez Jr. hype train has been growing all week long. A player who entered 2025 training camp as the Jaguars' RB4 — can Tuten really be trusted as the RB1 in Jacksonville? The fourth-round draft pick can easily see a limitation in his command of this rushing offense.

Tuten is being drafted around Pick No. 60 overall. This is higher than Jadarian Price, who is being very undervalued. There is perhaps no NFL backfield more volatile than the one in Jacksonville.

Round 7: Harold Fannin Jr.

There have been three instances where Todd Monken has been an NFL play caller and his TE1 played at least 13 games in a season. The average preseason ranking of his TE1 has been TE8 in fantasy football. Their average end-of-season ranking has been TE13.

I am as low on Fannin Jr. as anyone. He has way too much risk to his profile.

In 2025, Fannin Jr.'s only pass-catching competition was Jerry Jeudy. Cedric Tillman lacked health, and no one else was talented enough to ever prove threatening. Entering 2026, the team has drafted both KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, who have both received endless praise during the first few weeks of training camp.

The worst quarterback situation in the NFL is in Cleveland. Can Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders support so many fantasy-viable pass-catchers? I would not be so sure. Fannin Jr. lacks upside; that role would be better suited to Kyle Pitts or Sam LaPorta.

Round 8: JK Dobbins

The sun has risen, the grass is green, and JK Dobbins is injured. Dobbins' current injury is deemed of low impact, but Dobbins' vast history of soft-tissue injuries breeds concern. Dobbins has not played more than 13 games in an NFL season over the past five years. Twice has he hit double digits.

Round 9: Quentin Johnston

Given reports out of Chargers camp, it appears possible that Johnston may be the team's WR3 in due time. Tre Harris made a splendid catch on Tuesday, and the team is keen on making him more and more involved, splendid minus Keenan Allen entering 2026. The second-round 2025 draft pick demands respect.

No WR3 on a roster should go in the top-10 rounds of a fantasy draft, especially on Mike McDaniel's run-heavy, less-vertical offensive attack. Johnston plans to remain WR2 come Week 1, but with everyone to lose and not much to gain.

Round 10: Matthew Stafford

These days, rostering a non-mobile quarterback is not the sharpest move. Stafford literally had (1) rushing yard in 2025. The quarterback is very volatile on a YoY basis. While Stafford may have been fantasy football's QB3 last season, he can easily fall outside the top 10. I'd rather place my confidence in a rushing quarterback around this ADP, such as Trevor Lawrence or Bo Nix.