NFL Week 1 Survivor Pool Strategy: Denver Broncos And 4 More Winning Picks
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An NFL survival pool is one of the most popular contests for fans looking to add extra drama to the season.
The concept is simple: each week, players pick one NFL team to win. If that team loses, you’re eliminated. If it wins, you move on. However, the catch is that you can’t pick a team more than once for the entire season. The ultimate goal is to outlast everyone else in your pool.
The challenge and the fun come from striking a balance between risk and reward. Grabbing a heavy favorite in Week 1 might look like the safest survival pool pick, but using up a top contender early can leave you short-handed later. On the flip side, taking a chance on an under-the-radar team could buy you long-term flexibility, but a loss ends your run before it starts.
A smart survival pool strategy is to look beyond the obvious. Many players try to conserve elite teams for tougher weeks, choosing solid but not spectacular matchups early on. It’s a delicate mix of playing it safe while planning ahead.
Whether you stick with the chalk, hunt for value or take a risky swing, your pick can set the tone for the entire season. With all that said, here’s how we’re approaching Week 1:
*Percentage denotes pick distribution on Yahoo Fantasy*
Chalk Picks
Denver Broncos Over Tennessee Titans (32.49%)
The Broncos may be the most underrated team in 2025. They're poised to improve on their 2024 campaign, which saw them make the playoffs for the first time since 2015 with a rookie quarterback. They have one of, if not the best, defenses in the league, and an offense engineered by Sean Payton that the promising Bo Nix leads. The Titans are a team that will undoubtedly struggle this season with a rookie under center and holes on both sides of the ball. There's a good reason for the Broncos being the favorite pick in Week 1.
Arizona Cardinals Over New Orleans Saints (16.85%)
Whoever plays the Saints is likely a safe pick in survivor, as they’re one of the favorites to finish with the worst record in 2025. However, the Cardinals could be a sneaky good team this season. Their defense, in particular, will have no problem going up against Spencer Rattler, who has just two TD passes in his career. With the additions of Calais Campbell, Dalvin Tomlinson, Josh Sweat and Will Johnson, the defense is much scarier. The Cardinals appear to be a safe pick in Week 1.
Under The Radar Picks
Kansas City Chiefs Over Los Angeles Chargers (1.18%)
Patrick Mahomes boasts a 10-2 record against the Chargers since becoming a starter in 2018. The record includes a 6-0 mark on the road, which is where the Chiefs will play on Sunday. The Chiefs are a challenging matchup for the Chargers, a team that aims to run the ball effectively under offensive coordinator Greg Roman. The Chiefs ranked in the top 10 for fewest rushing yards allowed per game in 2024 and added to their front in the draft.
Los Angeles Rams Over Houston Texans (0.5%)
The Rams’ O-line should feast against the Texans’ O-line. The Texans allowed the fourth-most sacks in 2024, and did little to address their offensive front over the offseason. According to Pro Football Focus, the Rams finished with the fifth-highest stunt rate in 2024. More impressively, they were the most effective team when using stunts, leading the NFL in pressure rate, ranking second in pass-rush grade and placing fourth in pass-rush win rate in those situations. The Texans will struggle on offense in this matchup, particularly with a pass-catcher room that has limited weapons outside of Nico Collins.
One Risky Pick
Cincinnati Bengals Over Cleveland Browns (8.59%)
The Bengals have one combined win in Weeks 1 and 2 in Zac Taylor's six seasons as head coach. They're 1-11 during that span, which is the worst in the NFL. Early-season struggles are a recurring theme for Cincinnati, and this matchup is against an in-division opponent. This game will be closer than people anticipate, with the Bengals working to fix their kinks. For a pick that’s the fifth-most common, it’s much more risky than it may seem.
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Michael Rovetto previously served as the staff writer for University of Maryland Athletics for nearly two years. There, he wrote, edited and managed all editorial content for all 20 of Maryland's varsity sports on umterps.com. Rovetto is recognized as a College Sports Communicators district award-winning writer. Many of his stories have also appeared on NCAA.org, garnering national attention. Before graduating from Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism in December 2023, Rovetto wrote for PressBox and Terrapin Sports Central, covering Maryland men's basketball and football. He also has experience in broadcasting, previously working as an analyst and camera operator for Big State Sports, and communication, interning for Shell Shock TBT as its Director of Communication & Content Development.