NFL Week 6 Survivor Pool Strategy: Denver Broncos and 4 More Winning Picks

An NFL survivor pool is one of the most popular contests for fans looking to add extra drama to the season.

The concept is simple: each week, players pick one NFL team to win. If that team loses, you’re eliminated. If it wins, you move on. However, the catch is that you can’t pick a team more than once for the entire season. The ultimate goal is to outlast everyone else in your pool.

The challenge and the fun come from striking a balance between risk and reward. Grabbing a heavy favorite early in the season might look like the safest survival pool pick, but using up a top contender early can leave you short-handed later. On the flip side, taking a chance on an under-the-radar team could buy you long-term flexibility, but a loss ends your run before it starts.

A smart survival pool strategy is to look beyond the obvious. Many players try to conserve elite teams for tougher weeks, choosing solid but not spectacular matchups early on. It’s a delicate mix of playing it safe while planning ahead.

Whether you stick with the chalk, hunt for value or take a risky swing, your pick can set the tone for the entire season. With all that said, here’s how we’re approaching Week 6:

*Pick percentage is based on Yahoo Sports pick distribution*

Chalk Picks

Green Bay Packers Over Cincinnati Bengals (Pick %: 44% Spread: -14.5)

The Packers are coming off a bye, playing at Lambeau Field and playing a Bengals squad that has fully imploded. Cincinnati has one of the worst offenses and defenses in the NFL, ranking 29th in points scored while allowing the third-most points per game. Green Bay boasts a top-eight scoring offense and a top-12 scoring defense. Jake Browning was so bad that the Bengals traded for a 40-year-old Joe Flacco and immediately named him a starter. I wouldn’t expect him to be much better, though. The Packers are an easy choice this week, making now a good time to use them.

Denver Broncos Over New York Jets (Pick %: 7.5% Spread: -7)

The Broncos and Jets will play in Dublin on Sunday. The Jets are the only winless team remaining in the NFL this season, and it’s for good reason. Their defense, once one of the better units in recent years, is now giving up the second-most points per game (31.4). Giving up 30+ points per game is never a winning formula, especially for the Jets and their quarterback. Justin Fields is 0-26 as a starter when his opponent scored 21+ points. The Jets’ stats on offense also don’t tell the whole story. They’ve mastered the art of stat padding. From quarters 1-3, the Jets’ offense ranks 30th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play. Don’t let the three one-score losses fool you. The Jets score a lot of their points while trailing late in games, making their offense appear better than it actually is.

Under The Radar Picks

New England Patriots Over New Orleans Saints (Pick %: 4% Spread: -3.5)

The Patriots are one of the hottest teams in the NFL after their dominant win over the Panthers and their upset of the Bills on Monday night. Their recent success can be directly tied to Christian Gonzalez's return to the lineup. The Saints rank inside the top 10 for most points allowed per game (27), while the Patriots rank inside the top 10 for fewest points allowed per game (20.2). The Saints’ offense has looked better in recent weeks, but they have also struggled. They rank as a bottom-10 scoring offense. The Patriots play the Jets in Weeks 11 and 17, but Week 6 isn’t a bad time to deploy them.

The @Patriots are the only team in the @NFL this season to not have allowed a 50-yard rushing game from a running back through the first five games.

This is the first time New England has done this in its history.#NEPats pic.twitter.com/m4LFVKm1w6
— Patriots Communications (@PatriotsComms) October 7, 2025

Los Angeles Rams Over Baltimore Ravens (Pick %: 3% Spread: -7.5)

Lamar Jackson has yet to log a practice session this week, making him highly doubtful to play this week. That means Matthew Stafford and the Rams are set to face Cooper Rush. Rush made his first start for the Ravens last week, losing 44-10 to a struggling Texans team. The veteran also threw three interceptions. Now he’ll face one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. The Rams boast the No. 2 offense in yards per game (401.8), while the Ravens surrender the second-most yards per game on defense (408.8). Baltimore struggles against the run and the pass, so expect Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams to all have big games.

The Rams are the only defense in the NFL that hasn't allowed a rush of 20+ yards through five games, according to TruMedia. The unit also ranks tied for first with only two rushing touchdowns allowed and third in opponent yards per rush (3.5). pic.twitter.com/2226aa3u3C
— Los Angeles Rams PR (@TheLARamsPR) October 7, 2025

One Risky Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers Over Cleveland Browns (Pick %: 8% Spread: -5.5)

A general unwritten rule is to avoid games featuring division rivals when selecting a survivor pool pick. Even when a team seems to be an overwhelming favorite, a sheer hatred for the opposing team can will an inferior opponent to victory. In the case of this matchup, I don’t buy the Steelers being clear favorites. Despite ranking in the middle of the pack in points scored per game, the Steelers average the fourth-fewest yards offensively per game (263.5). They’re batting above their average and are matching up against an elite defense. The Browns allow the second-fewest yards per game (247.8). This is a trap game for me, and I would avoid picking the Steelers in Week 6.

DILLON GABRIEL FIRST CAREER TD PASS 🔥
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/RsD7Cu67Sg
— Overtime (@overtime) October 5, 2025