Running Backs To Avoid: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara Headline Top Busts In 2025

Avoid costly fantasy football mistakes in 2025 by steering clear of these high-risk running back busts.

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) warms up before a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Every fantasy football season brings its share of disappointments, but few sting more than high-priced running backs who flop. Whether it’s due to injuries, declining efficiency, or unexpected depth chart changes, investing heavily in a back who underperforms can tank your roster before October hits. 

As we gear up for the 2025 fantasy football season, here are the running backs most likely to be busts based on current ADP, team situations, and performance trends — and why you should think twice before drafting them.

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

ECR: RB4 ADP: RB4

Christian McCaffrey carries far too much risk to justify his RB4 price tag in 2025 fantasy drafts. Both his Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) and Average Draft Position (ADP) feel more like wishful thinking than grounded analysis. Health remains the glaring concern, and it’s tough to imagine a scenario where he fully lives up to that lofty draft capital.

Realistically, one of two things is likely to happen — and neither bodes well for fantasy managers: either the 49ers scale back his workload in an attempt to preserve him, or he ends up injured anyway. Last season, McCaffrey battled both a significant Achilles issue and a knee injury. Over the past seven seasons, he’s played a full slate just once and missed dougle-digit games in four of them. As he ages and the injury log grows, it’s hard to believe he’ll somehow reverse the trend — no matter how optimistic the preseason reports sound.

Christian McCaffrey is so back 🔥

(via @49ers)pic.twitter.com/dmDX0ipVeF

— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) July 29, 2025

CMC should be treated more as a fringe RB1/RB2 with elite upside if he stays healthy down the stretch. Just be prepared — the odds say you’ll need to survive a multi-week absence at some point.

Breece Hall, New York Jets

ECR: RB13 ADP: RB14

Hall is a talented running back, but he's in a terrible offense, which could end up being a full-blown committee. New head coach Aaron Glenn has stated that he wants to use three backs with Hall, Braelon Allen, and Isiah Davis, and Hall has come out and said he understands that he's not the new regime's guy. 

With Justin Fields under center, the running back targets are also going to drop off significantly. Hall has a lot working against him this season. The good news for him is that all signs point to him being on another team in 2026, where hopefully his production can match his talent.   

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

ECR: RB14 ADP: RB15

Kamara's value is overwhelmingly based on his PPR value. He has been a premier pass-catcher out of the backfield for a long time. However, the New Orleans Saints brought in a new coaching staff, quarterback, and their roster is full of young players. Kamara isn't the same guy he was when he punched in six touchdowns in a single game on Christmas Day against the Vikings a few years back.

When Alvin Kamara put up 6 touchdowns on Christmas Day. pic.twitter.com/aDdXrzJm47

— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) July 31, 2025

There is no way that new head coach Kellen Moore is going to come in and just do what the old regime did by dumping the ball off to a 30-year-old Kamara over and over. That is what got the last regime fired. New Orleans is going to be bad, but they have to see what they have in their young players as a rebuilding franchise. With that said, we wouldn't be surprised if he gets traded mid-season, which could massively sway his value in either direction. 

Joe Mixon, Houston Texans 

ECR: RB25 ADP: RB19

Drafting Mixon as the RB19 is a disastrous decision. He's an injured 29-year-old running back with a ton of tread on his tires running behind what may be the worst offensive line in the NFL. We saw him start out hot last season before his production fell off a cliff in December. That's the first sign that a player is beginning to wear down. Mixon should be drafted as a flex option when you already have another flex option. His ECR is much closer to his true value than his ADP, even though his ECR is a bit high.