Fantasy Football Outlook: Why Saquon Barkley Will Regress in the 2025 Season
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Saquon Barkley enters his second season as an Eagle and the expectations remain sky-high. He went for 2,000 yards, easily captured offensive player of the year honors, and won a Super Bowl. After all that he accomplished, you would think that Barkley would be the consensus #1 overall pick, but he is not, and there is good reason as to why.
The law of averages would point towards a regression year out of Barkley. Why? Well, there are many factors as to why. I will explain the reasons that has Saquon Barkley set for regression in 2025.
Workload Management
It is has been pointed out that Saquon Barkley may see reduced playing time. However, he has actually made a focused effort to create a more efficient recovery process to enhance his playing ability. That being said, I do see a world where the Eagles do decide to take some load off of their star running back.
The Eagles lost Kenneth Gainwell but replaced him with a better-fitted AJ Dillon. Another big-bodied, strong running back, the Eagles will surely turn to Dillon in high-leverage situations such as goal-line, 3rd and short, and dual-RB sets.
Defensive Mindset
Many teams got eaten alive by the Eagles rushing offense last year. They very clearly leverage Barkley as they do the tush-push. On the other hand, Jalen Hurts has been notably average with his arm. I am not schemetic expert, but common sense would say that defenses will better develop a strategy to stop, or limit Barkley and Hurts. I would expect them to stack the box more often and try to force the passing game. I am not sure how effective defense can be in this effort, but even a 5% advantage since last season will help reduce the Barkley stats.
Jalen Hurts was just rushed into a fadeaway pass intended for Dallas Goedert that sailed and was intercepted by Cooper DeJean, who was playing safety.
— Anthony DiBona (@DiBonaNFL) August 5, 2025
Opportunity and Efficiency Drop
Saquon Barkley went out for an astounding 5.8 yards per carry last season. This is a stunning figure. Crazy enough, Derrick Henry even out-did him with 5.9 yards per carry. Anyway, these are not common rushing figures, and defenses will likely find a way to contain Barkley is some sort of way. It may not work full-time, but something has to give.
Some may call me over-the-head for my belief in the law of averages, but I have found it true in many aspects of sports. This will not be the last time I reference it.
The Law of Averages, "the principle that most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average."
Only once in NFL history has a running back had 3+ seasons over 5.5 yards per carry. Adrian Peterson is the only semi-recent player to do it twice.
I also love this below conversation. Barkley is coming off a season around 400 carries. He is also now 28 years old. These both are trending signs towards upcoming injury and/or performance falloff.
New Offensive Coordinator
Kevin Patullo becomes the fourth offensive coordinator in four years for the Eagles. Last season, Patullo was the passing game coordinator for this team. He is familiar and will likely run the same-style offense. However, it is easier said than done.
Brian Johnson attempted to takeover for Shane Steichen in 2023, but it was no easy task. He lasted one year and Kellen Moore came in to takeover. It will be interesting to see if Patullo thrives or see's growing pains.
Consensus Opinion
Saquon Barkley finished as the #2 option in all of fantasy football last year. Despite this feat, he falls behind Bijan Robinson as the RB2 and Overall #3 in ADP. I do not expect Barkley to fall off a ton, but I do foresee somewhat of a regression season in store.
Bijan Robinson is my personal RB1, and Barkley is my RB2. The fall off is only enough to prefer one player ahead of him. Do not demand another 2,000 yard season if you draft Barkley — you are expecting too much of a rare-occurrence.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.