Super Bowl LX Betting Preview: Drake Maye Player Props, Projections, and Trends

The New England Patriots gear up for their 12th Super Bowl appearance, but first with the new star quarterback, Drake Maye, and head coach, Mike Vrabel. They’ve won 17 of their 20 games this season, highlighted by 16 victories over their previous 17 matchups. The Patriots' only loss (31-35) over this span came at home to the Buffalo Bills, in a game New England jumped to a 21-0 lead.

Drake Maye's Regular Season Was MVP Caliber

Drake Maye led the NFL in completion rate (72.0%) and yards per pass attempt (8.9%), which is a unique combination. Most quarterbacks with a completion rate of close to 70% tend to complete many easy passes to their running backs, which leads to a lower yards-per-pass-attempt rating.

Maye had 67 completions (2nd most) of 20 yards or more, with six of those plays gaining at least 40 yards. Maye also had the top passer rating (113.5) in the NFL, a mark beaten only once by Tom Brady (2007 – 117.2) for the New England franchise.

In the regular season, Maye gained 4,844 combined yards with 35 touchdowns (31 passing and four rushing). He threw eight interceptions and had three lost fumbles. Defenses sacked him 47 times (15 more in the postseason). His value in the run game (103/450/4) helps to move the chains, which is part of the reason he finished as the QB2 in fantasy football, only trailing Josh Allen. Snow and cold weather led to him posting much weaker postseason stats.

Drake Maye had an amazing Year 2 👏 @Invisalign
• 4,394 passing yards
• 35 total touchdowns pic.twitter.com/iQhgq9jmjP
— NFL (@NFL) January 28, 2026

Drake Maye's NFL Playoff Stats

In the postseason, the Patriots played three defensive teams, with their final two wins played in snowy, cold conditions. Two of their six playoff touchdowns have been set up by the defense (Marcus Jones interception return and a 12-yard drive vs. Denver).

Vs. Chargers (17-for-29 with 268 passing yards, one touchdown, an interception, and a lost fumble. He ran the ball 10 times for 68 yards while posting a low completion rate – 58.6%)
Vs. Houston (16-for-27 with 179 passing yards, three touchdowns, one interception, and two lost fumbles. The Texans held him to 10 rushing yards on four attempts. His completion rate (59.3%) was also well below his season average.
@DEN (10-for-21 with 86 passing yards and no turnovers. He ran the ball 10 times for 86 yards with the game-winning score).

Drake Maye is the 1st QB to win 3 playoff games against top 5 total defenses in a single postseason 😮‍💨@Patriots | #NEPats pic.twitter.com/fUivHS8ekD
— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) January 25, 2026

Drake Maye's Supporting Cast

New England only had two players catch more than 50 passes (Stefon Diggs – 85/1,013/4 and Hunter Henry – 60/768/7). Kayshon Boutte (33/551/6) was their second-highest scoring wide receiver.

The Patriots’ running backs ranked 12th in rushing yards (381/1,746/16 – 4.6 yards per carry). They caught 70 of their 83 targets for 581 yards and three touchdowns (8.3 yards per catch).

Super Bowl LX Quarterback Projections

Here's my initial quarterback projections for the Super Bowl:

CLICK HERE TO SEE THE FULL WRITEUP ON SAM DARNOLD'S SUPER BOWL PROJECTIONS!

Over his 20 starts, Maye passed for over 300 yards in one game (@BAL – 380/2). He had fewer than 30 pass attempts in 12 starts, with five coming over his last five games. The Patriots played 11 games at home, leading to 21 touchdowns by Maye (18 passing and three rushing).

His scoring output was slightly better on the road (nine games with 19 touchdowns – 17 passing and two rushing). He passed for two touchdowns or more in 12 matchups, with his best showing coming against the Jets on the road (256/5).

For the year (including the playoffs), Maye averaged 20 completions, 28 pass attempts, 246 passing yards, two touchdowns, 0.5 interceptions, and three sacks per game (6/30 in the run game per week with a 25% chances of scoring on the ground).

New England scored over 30 points in eight games. They posted fewer than 20 points in four contests. The first two were home losses, and the final outcomes were postseason wins (16-3 and 10-7).

Drake Maye Super Bowl LX Player Props

Here’s a look at Maye’s props for the Super Bowl at DraftKings:

219.5 passing yards (-112)
1.5 passing touchdowns (-151o)
30.5 pass attempts (-113o)
19.5 completions (-118u)
0.5 interceptions (-145o)
38.5 rushing yards (-114u)
6.5 rushing attempts (-141o)
A rushing touchdown (+310)

Looking At Stats To Exploit Drake Maye Player Props

Maye passed for fewer than 220 yards in five games of his 20 starts, with three coming over the past four matchups. He had more than 30 pass attempts in seven games while delivering at least 20 completions in eight matchups.

Quarterbacks average 22.1 completions, 35.3 pass attempts, 213 passing yards, and 1.2 passing touchdowns against the Seahawks during the regular season. Eight quarterbacks passed for over 220 yards. Seattle allowed over 300 yards passing in three matchups (Baker Mayfield – 379/2 and Matthew Stafford twice – 457/3 and 374/3).

For a deeper comparison, here is a look at the strength of each team's opponent, not by games played, but by the value of all their matchups (17 games with 17 outcomes for each team, with data to back it up). In the case of the Patriots, all division opponents' stats count twice.

New England’s defensive matchups allowed 5,848 completions, 8,932 passing attempts, 64,461 passing yards, 457 touchdowns, 648 sacks, and 173 interceptions. These stats, divided by 289 (17 games for all of their 17 opponents), came to 20-for-31 with 223 passing yards, 1.6 passing touchdowns, 2.2 sacks, and 0.6 interceptions per game.
As for Seattle’s offensive opponents, they had 6,193 completions, 9,659 pass attempts, 67,010 passing yards, 460 passing touchdowns, 646 sacks, and 198 interceptions – 21-for-33 with 232 passing yards, 1.6 passing touchdowns, 2.2 sacks, and 0.7 interceptions per game.

Based on this, New England’s defensive and the Seahawks’ offensive matchups differed by nine passing yards and 0.0 passing touchdowns in New England’s favor.

The Patriots' wide receivers had 208 catches for 2,845 yards and 19 touchdowns on 283 targets. Seattle’s defense allowed 173 catches for 1,897 yards and 12 touchdowns on 303 targets to wideouts.

New England’s tight ends caught 82 passes for 1,031 yards and eight touchdowns on 115 targets. The Seahawks’ defense allowed 104 catches for 1,074 yards and six touchdowns to tight ends on 144 targets.

Drake Maye Super Bowl LX Projections

At the end of the day, I have projected Maye to complete 22 of 32 passes for 253 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Expect six rushes for 24 yards and a 25% chance of a rushing touchdown against Seattle in Super Bowl LX. I have him edging out Darnold by just under three fantasy points.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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