Top Busts To Avoid In Every Round Of Fantasy Football Drafts Based On ADP: Is Brock Bowers Being Overdrafted?

Fantasy football season is quickly approaching, and fantasy drafts are taking place more often. One of the keys to winning your fantasy football league is avoiding busts and players who are being drafted too high. These are the biggest busts to avoid in each round of a 16-round fantasy football draft.

Round 1

RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

We are avoiding McCaffrey this season. He is now 30 years old and coming off the biggest workload of his career, as well as a steep decline in efficiency. There is no way we are spending a first-round pick on an oft-injured running back at that age coming off that kind of workload, no matter how high his upside might be.

Round 2

TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

Bowers is not going to be a bust by any stretch of the imagination, but we do believe this is too high to select him. Trey McBride is our TE1 and is going a round later, and we'd be just as happy with Tyler Warren at the Round 5-6 turn.

Round 3

WR Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers

McConkey never had a ton of upside as a 185-pound slot receiver. He has PPR value, but the volume is no longer a sure thing. Quentin Johnston earned more targets last season, Keenan Allen could still re-sign, and there are a handful of other new or up-and-coming targets on what should be a run-first offense. We expect McConkey to be a low-upside, inconsistent option this season, much like he was last year.

Round 4

WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

We aren't interested in any of the Jets' pass-catchers. Geno Smith is not a significant upgrade from Tyrod Taylor at this point in his career, and now Wilson has a bunch of other pass-catchers to compete with for targets.

Could he be good? Sure, but right behind him in the ADP are Travis Etienne Jr, Tetairoa McMillan, and Malik Nabers. There are way too many better players on the board to select Wilson at the top of the fourth round.

Round 5

WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

Watson has a ton of upside, but has been extremely injury-prone throughout his career. Through four seasons, he has missed 20 games, and his career highs are 41 receptions in 2022, 620 yards in 2024, and seven touchdowns in 2022. If we are investing in a Packers' wide receiver, we'd rather select Jayden Reed at the Round 8-9 turn.

Round 6

WR Brian Thomas Jr, Jacksonville Jaguars

We have no interest in drafting the first Jags wideout off the board, which is exactly what BTJ is. Especially when their best wide receiver, Jakobi Meyers, is going in the 10th round.

Round 7

QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Year after year, fantasy owners raise their expectations for Herbert, and year after year he disappoints. There is no reason to think he's suddenly going to be in the QB6-QB8 range. Jim Harbaugh is building that team to be a run-heavy offense with a tough defense. The volume won't be there, and Herbert should be viewed as a fringe QB1.

Round 8

WR Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers

The allure of Pearsall was that he could be the WR1 in a Kyle Shanahan offense last season. Unfortunately, he again struggled to stay healthy and wasn't great when he was on the field.

In two seasons, he has missed 14 games, and last season in nine games caught just 36 passes for 528 yards and not a single touchdown. With the team adding Mike Evans and Christian Kirk this offseason, we are out on Pearsall.

Round 9

WR Wan'Dale Robinson, Tennessee Titans

We are higher on Cam Ward than most, but we still don't want his WR2, especially with other young wideouts like Elic Ayomanor looking to compete for the job as well. Robinson isn't a bad wideout, but he also isn't a strong fantasy option either.

Everything fell into place perfectly for him last season with all the injuries to the Giants' WR corps. Even then, he totaled 92 receptions for 1,014 yards and two touchdowns. He can hold decent PPR value, but his upside is very limited, and we expect him to be a distant second option at best to first-round pick Carnell Tate.

Round 10

WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs

Worthy has flashed a few times as a pro, but he has shown very little production when Rashee Rice is on the field, which he is expected to be this season. The addition of Kenneth Walker III, as well as Patrick Mahomes coming off a torn ACL, also point to a more run-heavy attack and quick passes. None of that bodes well for Worthy's fantasy value.

Round 11

RB Aaron Jones Jr, Minnesota Vikings

Jones is only going to continue getting phased out of the Vikings offense. Jordan Mason is the running back to target in Minnesota. If you don't believe in Mason and want to roll the dice on another Vikings RB, monitor Demond Claiborne and Zavier Scott this summer.

Round 12

QB CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud just isn't very good and never developed like fantasy owners hoped after an impressive end to his rookie season. He cannot be consistently relied on in fantasy leagues and isn't worth rostering.

Round 13

RB Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans

Spears can't stay healthy and hasn't been overly productive when he is. Nicholas Singleton is going to take over that backfield by the end of the season, and with Tony Pollard starting the season as the starter, there is little room for Spears.

Round 14

WR Jauan Jennings, Minnesota Vikings

Jennings made the choice to sign with a team to be their WR3. Now you should make the choice not to draft him. We are higher than most on Kyler Murray, but there are still plenty of questions regarding that passing attack.

Round 15

TE TJ Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

Sticking with the Vikings passing attack, we are also avoiding Hockenson. He hasn't looked good in two years now, and is still living off his name more than his actual value. Better tight ends are being drafted after him with much more upside.

Round 16

RB Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers

Keaton Mitchell is going to be the change-of-pace running back this season in Los Angeles, and if Omarion Hampton does get injured, this will be a split backfield at best between Mitchell and Vidal. There is no reason to hold onto an NFL RB3 with hopes that if there is an injury, he might get to split a backfield. There are much better handcuffs you can draft.

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