Training Camp Fallers: Breece Hall, Joe Mixon Seeing Value Drop in Camp

Every year, there are a couple players who just don't match their expected production. Some come out of nowhere because of a freak injury, but others find themselves losing work based solely on what happens in training camp.

Whether it's an aggravated injury or another player's emergence, these players are looking like they might not be worth their cost on draft day. If they start to fall, feel free to take a flier, but don't overpay for them based on name value.

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets

Hall's floor was supposed to be an RB2, given the Jets' desire to run the ball more under new coach Aaron Glenn. Glenn saw how much a running attack matters, and he's rebuilding the Jets to run the ball.

But the problem for Hall is that Braelon Allen is quickly turning this into a timeshare. Allen was supposed to be the short-yardage back, but the word from New Jersey is that this is becoming a pairing of equals.

That doesn't mean Hall's destined to bust. The Jets still plan to use his pass-catching skills and give him some touches. But it does mean that he's going too early in the third round. If Allen eats into his touches, touchdowns could become scarce in an offense where Justin Fields can also score in short yardage.

Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans

Mixon is once again injured, and the Texans are planning for other backs to start for them in Week 1. Coach DeMeco Ryans mentioned Nick Chubb and two other options where the Texans will lean, and sounded like he's planning for Mixon to miss extended time.

Mixon is going in the fourth or fifth round in most drafts, which is too high if he's not healthy. In Mixon's case, sharing time is especially devastating. He was a top-10 fantasy back last year, but that was because of volume rather than efficiency.

If he's not getting touches, he's simply not worth a fifth-round selection. You can get much better production from someone who isn't fighting off multiple backs.

Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens

With Likely breaking a bone in his foot, the chances of him being ready for Week 1 are slim. Even if he can play, he likely won't get many targets until he's back to full strength.

That means Mark Andrews is likely to get most of the early work, and Likely's ADP should take a substantial hit. Likely probably won't be ready to contribute until Week 6, and you shouldn't waste a draft pick on a second tight end when you know he's down for over a quarter of the season.

Instead, target and monitor Likely off the waiver wire when the season begins. He could help once he's healthy, but he needs to come at a bargain price.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders

Terry McLaurin's skills remain as sharp as ever. But he might not step on the field in September, or even at all. McLaurin sits in a contract dispute with the Commanders, and he has requested a trade out of Washington.

Add that together, and you get a distracted, angry player. That usually doesn't produce what it should. McLaurin is being drafted like a WR1, but he's not going to be on the same page with the rest of the offense.

Sometimes, you can get away with that. But Washington doesn't have the receiver depth to do it, and there's no telling if McLaurin will be traded. If he is, or comes to an amicable deal, his value could increase back to being a first or second-round choice. But if he's not, the Commanders will struggle and so will fantasy teams that use a high pick on McLaurin.