NFL Week 14 Survival Pool Strategy: Buccaneers, Browns and 3 More Winning Picks
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An NFL survival pool is one of the most popular contests for fans looking to add extra drama to the season.
The concept is simple: each week, players pick one NFL team to win. If that team loses, you’re eliminated. If it wins, you move on. However, the catch is that you can’t pick a team more than once for the entire season. The ultimate goal is to outlast everyone else in your pool.
The challenge and the fun come from striking a balance between risk and reward. Grabbing a heavy favorite early in the season might look like the safest survival pool pick, but using up a top contender early can leave you short-handed later. On the flip side, taking a chance on an under-the-radar team could buy you long-term flexibility, but a loss ends your run before it starts.
A smart survival pool strategy is to look beyond the obvious. Many players try to conserve elite teams for tougher weeks, choosing solid but not spectacular matchups early on. It’s a delicate mix of playing it safe while planning ahead.
Whether you stick with the chalk, hunt for value or take a risky swing, your pick can impact the outlook for the rest of the season. With all that said, here’s how we’re approaching Week 14:
*Pick percentage is based on Yahoo Sports pick distribution*
Chalk Picks
Buccaneers Over Saints (Pick %: 63% Spread: -8.5)
The Buccaneers are the most frequent selection this week in a vast majority of survivor pools, and it’s easy to see why. They’re tied for the biggest betting favorites, and the Saints are their easiest remaining opponent, although they play the Panthers twice, the Falcons and the Dolphins to end the regular season. New Orleans is 2-10 on the year. The last time these two teams met back in Week 8, Tampa Bay won 23-3 with a defensive touchdown. The Buccaneers may have future value, but now is the time to use them.
Broncos Over Raiders (Pick %: 6% Spread: -7.5)
The Broncos were popular picks in Weeks 1 and 10, so most of the field has likely already used them. The latter week, they matched up against the Raiders for the first time this season and squeaked out a 10-7 victory. The score of that game may not breed a ton of confidence in a rematch, but Las Vegas also sits at 2-10 this season with offensive struggles in all phases. That doesn’t bode well against the best defense in the NFL. The Raiders are the Broncos’ easiest remaining opponent by far. The Broncos check all the boxes for a pick. They’re large favorites, with a low selection rate and little future value.
Under The Radar Picks
Rams Over Cardinals (Pick %: 5% Spread: -8.5)
The Rams are another team that has likely been used, but they’re once again big favorites in Week 14. Sean McVay has historically dominated the Cardinals in his career, as he boasts a record of 14-3 in head-to-head games and a 13-4 record against the spread in those contests. Arizona has also lost nine of its last 10 games. As Super Bowl favorites, the Rams are virtually usable in every game the rest of the season, but Weeks 17 (@ Atlanta) and 18 (vs. Arizona) are the other prime spots to use them.
Seahawks Over Falcons (Pick %: 4% Spread: -6.5)
Like the Broncos and Rams, very few people have the Seahawks left. But for those who do, now is the time to use them. The Falcons have fallen apart, going 1-6 in their past seven games. Of those losses, three have come against the Dolphins, Panthers and New York Jets. The losses of Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London have tanked Atlanta’s season. The Seahawks’ defense should have no problem matching up against Kirk Cousins and company in Week 14. The only other week the Seahawks have value is Week 17 against the Panthers.
One Risky Pick
Browns Over Titans (Pick %: 18% Spread: -3.5)
Do I need to explain why the Browns are a risky selection? I’ll do it anyway. Putting one’s faith in a 3-9 football team will always be risky, no matter the opponent. However, I’ll make the case. The Titans are 1-17 in their past 18 games. Both teams' offenses rank near the bottom of the NFL. Tennessee may be slightly better on the defensive side, but that’s not saying much. Cleveland, on the other hand, boasts a top 10 unit, which could be the deciding factor in a game that’s slated as the lowest over/under of the season. The Browns have no future value at all, so as long as selectors are willing to sweat this one out, the pick could net significant rewards.
Check out our top five games to target in fantasy football Week 14.
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Michael Rovetto previously served as the staff writer for University of Maryland Athletics for nearly two years. There, he wrote, edited and managed all editorial content for all 20 of Maryland's varsity sports on umterps.com. Rovetto is recognized as a College Sports Communicators district award-winning writer. Many of his stories have also appeared on NCAA.org, garnering national attention. Before graduating from Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism in December 2023, Rovetto wrote for PressBox and Terrapin Sports Central, covering Maryland men's basketball and football. He also has experience in broadcasting, previously working as an analyst and camera operator for Big State Sports, and communication, interning for Shell Shock TBT as its Director of Communication & Content Development.