Week 5 NFL Survivor Pool Strategy: Bengals Are The Chalk, Plus Two More Options
If you’ve made it to this article, there’s a good chance you watched some of your Survivor Pool opponents crash and burn with the Cowboys last night. If you’re still alive, congratulations! You’ve managed to avoid at least a few of the landmines this season has thrown our way.
Week 5 might be one of the toughest slates to navigate yet. Before Thursday night’s game, just three teams were favored by more than a touchdown, according to the betting lines. The Cowboys were one of them, laying 8.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook, but their loss leaves us with just two teams favored by at least seven points—and both sit at 7.5-point favorites. With the first bye week also shrinking our options, finding a safe pick won’t be easy. Let’s break down my top Survivor Pool picks for Week 5 and figure out which teams are worth trusting.
The Chalk
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
The Bengals haven’t looked sharp over the past two weeks, following a 2-0 start with back-to-back losses to the Steelers and Jaguars. But this matchup against the winless Dolphins comes at the perfect time. If you’ve followed Cincinnati during the Joe Burrow era, you know this team has a habit of starting slowly before finding its stride later in the season.
The Bengals started 1-3 in each of the previous three seasons and finished with a winning record in two of them. In 2022, they opened 2-3 before rattling off a 12-4 finish. It feels like the time for Cincinnati to get back on track is now, and what better opportunity than a matchup with Miami? The Dolphins may be desperate for their first win, but the Bengals have plenty to prove, too—and I’m betting Cincinnati responds.
Safe But Not Chalk
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Speaking of desperation, both of these teams are desperate for a win. With two teams being 0-4, I’ll think it’s pretty safe to go with the team that actually has some talent. The Texan’s haven’t played great football, but they haven’t played terribly either. Outside of their 20-6 loss to the Bengals, they’ve lost games by 2, 4, and 5. The Texans aren’t that bad of a football team, and they go against a Titans team that just raised its total ppg with an 18 point performance last week to 13.8 ppg. Texans roll to their first win.
Risky Pick
Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens
This game is worth monitoring as Lamar Jackson’s status remains uncertain, but if you’re looking to differentiate yourself from the crowd picking the top two favorites or the Lions against Arizona, Atlanta is an intriguing option.
The Falcons’ turnaround has been impressive. After scoring just 16 points combined over the first two weeks, they’ve exploded for 80 over the last two games since Michael Penix Jr. returned. Bijan Robinson has been nothing short of a beast, and Atlanta has looked like one of the best teams in football over the past two weeks.
If Jackson is ruled out, this matchup becomes even more appealing. Even if he plays, there’s a chance he’ll be limited and less mobile than usual. Either way, Penix appears to have Atlanta’s offense back on track, the Falcons’ defense has been solid, and Bijan is playing at an incredibly high level. Who’s stopping him right now? If you’re willing to take a calculated risk in your Survivor Pool, Atlanta deserves a serious look.
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Matthew Rumack has been working in the Fantasy Sports space for almost a decade, including stints at FantasySP, DrRoto, Varsity Sports Media, and the FNTSY Sports Network. He specializes in Fantasy Golf and Fantasy Football. Born and raised in New York, he's a massive Knicks, Giants, and Yankees fan. When he's not writing about, playing, or watching sports, he's usually walking his dog, Freddie.