NFL Week 5 Survivor Pool Strategy: Dallas Cowboys and 4 More Winning Picks
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An NFL survival pool is one of the most popular contests for fans looking to add extra drama to the season.
The concept is simple: each week, players pick one NFL team to win. If that team loses, you’re eliminated. If it wins, you move on. However, the catch is that you can’t pick a team more than once for the entire season. The ultimate goal is to outlast everyone else in your pool.
The challenge and the fun come from striking a balance between risk and reward. Grabbing a heavy favorite early in the season might look like the safest survival pool pick, but using up a top contender early can leave you short-handed later. On the flip side, taking a chance on an under-the-radar team could buy you long-term flexibility, but a loss ends your run before it starts.
A smart survival pool strategy is to look beyond the obvious. Many players try to conserve elite teams for tougher weeks, choosing solid but not spectacular matchups early on. It’s a delicate mix of playing it safe while planning ahead.
Whether you stick with the chalk, hunt for value or take a risky swing, your pick can set the tone for the entire season. With all that said, here’s how we’re approaching Week 5:
*Pick percentage is based on Yahoo Sports pick distribution*
Chalk Picks
Detroit Lions Over Cincinnati Bengals (Pick %: 22% Spread: -10.5)
The Lions are on a roll, winning their last three games by a combined average of 21 points. On the other hand, the Bengals are one of the teams struggling the most recently. Jake Browning showed some magic in his relief appearance for Joe Burrow in Week 2, as he helped Cincinnati come out on the winning end of a shootout with the Jaguars. However, the Bengals have scored just 13 points and are being outscored by 63 points with him at the helm in their last two games. The Lions are statistically better in almost every facet of this matchup.
Indianapolis Colts Over Las Vegas Raiders (Pick %: 22% Spread: -6.5)
The Colts were virtually one defensive stop away from being 4-0, but Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua willed the Rams to victory last week. They boast the NFL’s No. 3 offense in terms of yardage per game (397.3) and No. 4 scoring offense (30.8). Meanwhile, the Raiders are a bottom-10 scoring offense and aren’t much better on the defensive side. Not to mention that Geno Smith leads the league in interceptions. With the Colts returning home this week, they should have no problem rolling past the Raiders.
Under The Radar Picks
Buffalo Bills Over New England Patriots (Pick %: 3% Spread: -8.5)
The Bills enter this home game with a 4-0 record and appear to be a Super Bowl favorite early this season. Their +43 point differential is second only to the Lions. The Patriots, while the future looks bright with Drake Maye under center, simply don’t have the playmakers on offense or defense to hang around in this one for long. The Bills have played the Jets, Dolphins and Saints the last three weeks. Chances are that survivor players have already used them, but if not, they're a worthwhile consideration in Week 5. Still, they face many other inferior teams, including all three of their divisional opponents, as the season goes on. Personally, I would save them. But the Bills are a solid option this week.
Dallas Cowboys Over New York Jets (Pick %: 2% Spread: -2.5)
The Cowboys are 1-2-1 thus far, and their offense and defense are a tale of two sides of the ball. They boast the No. 1 offense in terms of yards per game (404.3), but their defense is dead-last in yards allowed per game (420.5). There’s a possibility that the Cowboys will score 35+ points against the Jets, who allow the fourth-most points per game defensively (30). The last time the Jets scored 35 or more points in a game was in 2022. They simply will not be able to keep up with the Cowboys in this contest. Dallas is only favored by less than a field goal on the road, but I like them by a touchdown or more this weekend. The Cowboys would be my pick this week in survivor.
One Risky Pick
Minnesota Vikings Over Cleveland Browns (Pick %: 3% Spread: -3.5)
Although the Brian Flores defense will be a tough matchup for Dillon Gabriel in his NFL regular-season debut, I don’t think this is a lock of a pick. The Browns have an equally good defense, and Myles Garrett should feast against the injury-riddled Vikings' offensive line. This game has the lowest over/under of any game this week, with the line set at 35.5. That signifies this game will be a dogfight. The winner will have to grind out the victory, and I believe the Browns are more built to do that than the Vikings. Take their upset win over the Packers as an example. All of this is without mentioning turnover-prone Carson Wentz. Consider the Vikings as a risky survivor selection in Week 5.
Check out the top Week 4 over/under games to target in fantasy football.
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Michael Rovetto previously served as the staff writer for University of Maryland Athletics for nearly two years. There, he wrote, edited and managed all editorial content for all 20 of Maryland's varsity sports on umterps.com. Rovetto is recognized as a College Sports Communicators district award-winning writer. Many of his stories have also appeared on NCAA.org, garnering national attention. Before graduating from Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism in December 2023, Rovetto wrote for PressBox and Terrapin Sports Central, covering Maryland men's basketball and football. He also has experience in broadcasting, previously working as an analyst and camera operator for Big State Sports, and communication, interning for Shell Shock TBT as its Director of Communication & Content Development.