Wildcard Weekend’s Biggest Boom-or-Bust Players: Featuring Justin Herbert and DeVonta Smith
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Wildcard Weekend is always full of drama, and this year it could hinge on the league’s top “boom-or-bust” players. These are the stars who can carry their teams with huge, game-changing performances or struggle under playoff pressure and derail their squads. From volatile quarterbacks to high-risk, high-reward skill players, their performances could swing games, define careers, and make the difference between advancing or going home.
Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert and the Chargers enter Wild Card Weekend as the No. 7 seed in the AFC, facing the No. 2 seed Patriots on the road. New England finished the regular season 14–3.
Herbert had a solid season for the Chargers, throwing for 3,727 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions across 16 games, earning his second Pro Bowl selection. From a fantasy football perspective, Herbert was also reliable, finishing as the QB10 while averaging 17.9 points per game.
However, Herbert was somewhat inconsistent down the stretch for fantasy managers. From Weeks 10–17 (he sat out Week 18), he surpassed his season average of 17.9 fantasy points only once, a 30.2-point performance in Week 16 against the Cowboys.
The Patriots present a tough challenge for Herbert and the Chargers’ offense. New England allowed the fourth-fewest points per game (18.8) and the eighth-fewest yards per game (295.2) during the regular season. Additionally, the Chargers’ offensive line has struggled, surrendering 60 sacks—tied for the second-most in the league. Herbert will need to stay upright to deliver a strong performance in this matchup.
Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith
DeVonta Smith put together a strong 2025 regular season, finishing with 77 receptions on 113 targets for 1,008 yards. He ended the year as the WR20 in fantasy football, averaging 11.9 points per game. Despite the solid overall production, Smith was a classic boom-or-bust option for both the Eagles and fantasy managers. He eclipsed 100 receiving yards only twice across 17 games and scored double-digit fantasy points in just seven contests.
Philadelphia finished the regular season 11–6, earning the NFC’s No. 3 seed and a home playoff matchup against the 6-seed San Francisco 49ers (12–5). San Francisco’s pass defense presents an intriguing matchup for Smith. The 49ers ranked 25th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (232.4), indicating vulnerability through the air, yet they were much more effective at limiting scoring, finishing 13th in points allowed at 21.8 per game.
Given Smith’s volatile production profile and the 49ers’ bend-but-don’t-break defensive tendencies, his playoff performance will be one to monitor closely. If the Eagles are forced into a pass-heavy script, Smith has the upside to exploit San Francisco’s secondary—but his season-long inconsistency makes him far from a lock to perform.
Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson
Christian Watson has been the definition of boom-or-bust this season. In 10 games, he’s totaled 611 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 35 receptions and 55 targets, finishing as WR46 while averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game. His weekly inconsistency stands out—he’s posted four games with over 80 receiving yards and five games under 50 yards, which directly translated to production: five double-digit fantasy performances and five games below double digits.
The Packers enter the playoffs as the 7th seed (9–7–1) and will face the 2nd-seeded Bears (11–6). Chicago’s defense has struggled throughout the season, ranking 29th in total yards allowed per game and 23rd in points allowed, giving up 24.4 points per game.
Watson already capitalized on this matchup in Week 14, catching four passes on four targets for 89 yards and two touchdowns, good for 24.9 fantasy points. His speed and red-zone ability make him a difficult matchup for a Bears defense that has allowed explosive plays all season.
If Watson can replicate even a portion of that performance, he could be a key X-factor for Green Bay and a high-upside fantasy option despite his volatility.
Carolina Panthers RB Rico Dowdle
Rico Dowdle enjoyed a breakout 2025 regular season for the Carolina Panthers, emerging as a reliable fantasy contributor after taking over the starting role in Week 5. He finished the year with 1,076 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 236 carries, while also contributing as a receiver with 39 catches on 50 targets for 297 yards and an additional touchdown. Those numbers were good for an RB18 finish in fantasy football, averaging 12.7 points per game.
Dowdle didn’t seize the lead back role until Chuba Hubbard went down with an injury in Week 5, but once given the opportunity, he ran with it. His season was largely defined by two massive performances early in his starting stretch. In Week 5, Dowdle exploded for 206 rushing yards and a touchdown on 23 carries, followed by another dominant outing in Week 6 with 30 carries for 183 total yards. Outside of those two games, however, Dowdle topped 100 rushing yards only once more—Week 9, when he posted 130 yards on the ground.
On Wild Card Weekend, Dowdle and the Panthers—who snuck into the playoffs as the NFC’s fourth seed at 8–9—host the 12–5 Los Angeles Rams. The Rams boast the league’s 12th-ranked run defense, allowing 110.8 rushing yards per game. With Los Angeles favored by 10.5 points, game script is a clear concern, as Carolina may be forced to lean more heavily on the passing game.
Still, Dowdle’s big-play ability keeps him firmly in the conversation. If the Panthers can keep the game competitive early, he has the explosiveness to flip the script with one or two chunk runs and outperform expectations despite the unfavorable matchup.
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Ryan Shea is a seasoned sports enthusiast with a sharp eye for strategy and a deep love for the game—no matter the sport. Whether he’s analyzing roster moves or spotting trends before they hit the headlines, Ryan brings a unique mix of research, instinct, and insider perspective to his writing. With over a decade of experience dominating fantasy leagues, he knows what it takes to build championship-caliber lineups. A diehard fan of all things New York, Ryan proudly reps the Jets, Yankees, Knicks, and Rangers—win or lose.