Jaxson Dart Features 3 of Fantasy Football's Early ADP Fallers
Whose stock is falling in fantasy football? That is a question that many fans have asked, and it is one we aim to answer. Over the past seven days, multiple names have fallen in fantasy football re-draft ADP. It does not come without reason, so let's dive in below to find out what is going on.
Jaxson Dart
Dart is experiencing a market adjustment in his ADP. The Giants quarterback has been drafted as high as QB8. He has now fallen to QB11 in ADP, drafted around the 90th player overall.
As highlighted in our projections, the quarterback position is one we view as very tight-knit in the range of QB5-QB13. Dart falls right in that range. When creating a re-draft strategy, it is suggested that you err on the side of upside. Draft the quarterbacks simply with the highest ceiling, reviewing key factors such as their pass-catching weapons, coaching promise, and overall raw skill.
Dart errs on the lower side of upside. His weapons are mediocre at best, with Darius Slayton and Isaiah Likely as middling 2nd- and 3rd-target options, behind Malik Nabers. A sophomore slump has earned its name for good reason, being that it is sometimes a real thing. Ask CJ Stroud, among others.
Dalton Kincaid
There is mild skepticism about Kincaid's role. The current projected Bills depth chart lists Dawson Knox ahead of Kincaid. He threatens to steal work from Kincaid, who is really the true TE1 in pass-catching volume.
In the 5 games Knox played without Kincaid being active in 2025, Knox averaged 3.6 targets, 2.6 receptions, 23.4 yards, and 0.0 touchdowns per game.
When both Kincaid and Knox were active in 2025, he below were the player ratios to eachother:
Dalton Kincaid | Dawson Knox | |
|---|---|---|
Yards Per Game | 47.6 | 25.0 |
Receptions Per Game | 3.25 | 1.92 |
Touchdowns Per Game | 0.42 | 0.25 |
On a per-game basis, Knox even played more passing snaps per game: 19.7 to Kincaid's 19.2. We do still view this downgrade in ADP as an overreaction. Kincaid is our TE7 in PPR formats while ADP suggests Kincaid is the TE13.
In tight-end splits, Kincaid is a player we expect to have a 17-20% target share, and Knox to 9-12%. Further training camp reporting on the competition will be vital, so stay tuned over the coming weeks. Kincaid is generally a volatile player in potential output.
Kyler Murray
The expectation is that Murray is the Vikings' Week 1 starter. However, he has yet to earn that honor officially. For now, Murray splits first-team reps with JJ McCarthy, and until Kevin O'Connell labels Murray the starter, his reps will be limited in a brand-new offense. That is a risk for certain.
The good news is that Murray was seen as connecting on a beautiful deep ball with Justin Jefferson this week in camp. His upside remains very high, and if he starts, Murray has among the NFL's best pass-catching depth charts. It features Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and TJ Hockenson.
We view Murray as the QB18, whereas ADP has Murray as the QB16. A former top-5 fantasy football quarterback, Murray is a great backup stash.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.