Fantasy Baseball Rankings: First Basemen Sleepers
For much of my NFBC career, the first base position has been a top-ranking source for power and RBIs. Last season, only two players (Vladimir Guerrero – 103 and Josh Naylor – 108) had 100 RBIs or more. Guerrero ranked first in runs (98) for the position, and Pete Alonso was second with 91 runs. Only four first basemen had 30 home runs or more: Pete Alonso – 34, Josh Naylor – 31, Vladimir Guerrero – 30, and Bryce Harper – 30). Here are Fantasy on SI's first basemen rankings 6-10:
6 – Cody Bellinger, NYY (ADP – 106.2)
Since his breakout season in 2019 (.305/121/47/115/15), Bellinger has been a losing fantasy invested almost every year. He played well in 2023, but 32 missed games stole some shine off his overall production. Last year, rib and finger injuries led to two stints on the injured list and another 32 games on the sidelines.
From May 7th to July 10th, Bellinger hit .285 over 228 at-bats with weakness in his counting stats (29 runs, four home runs, 20 RBIs, and five home runs). His bat came around over the final third of the season (.260/33/9/41/4 over 204 at-bats). He handled himself well vs. left-handed pitching (.298 with 24 runs, four home runs, and 32 RBIs over 161 at-bats).
Over the past two years, Bellinger regained his plate coverage, highlighted by his improved strikeout rate (15.6). He finished 2024 with about a league-average walk rate (7.9). From 2017 to 2020, his walk rate (12.4) was an area of strength. Bellinger continues to have a fly-ball swing path (46.1), but his HR/FB rate (9.0) was the lowest of his career and well below his peak in 2019 (24.6%). Based on his fading exit velocity (87.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (32.4), he traded contact for power over the past two seasons.
Breaking: Cody Bellinger has been traded from the Chicago Cubs to the New York Yankees, sources tell Jeff Passan.
— ESPN (@espn) December 17, 2024
Bellinger, 29, is a former MVP and has two years remaining on his contract with an opt-out after 2025. pic.twitter.com/L4oUCnCuR3
Fantasy Outlook: Bellinger comes into this year with dual eligibility (1B and OF) while now playing in a left-handed power-favoring ballpark. In essence, he is playing in a contract year (player option in 2026 for $25 million). Based on his play over the past two seasons, Bellinger has the profile of a 90/24/95/16 player with 550 at-bats. Hitting behind Aaron Judge should lead to a spike in overall RBI chances (he hasn’t had more than 400 RBI chances since 2019). The bet on Bellinger is that he offers a balanced skill set in five categories while understanding that he could surprise in power. In fantasy baseball, there is something to be said for drafting a player one-off an elite bat. Keep an open mind with his potential and hope for a healthy season.
7 – Vinnie Pasquantino, KC (ADP – 114.2)
Pasquantino came to majors with an excellent walk rate (12.1) while being challenging to strikeout rate (13.3). Over his three seasons in the minors, Pasquantino hit .292 with 174 runs, 56 home runs, 207 RBIs, and nine stolen bases over 912 at-bats.
In 2023, Pasquantino saw his season end 10 days into June due to a right shoulder injury (torn labrum) that required surgery. Over his first 54 games, he hit .267 with 23 runs, nine home runs, and 26 RBIs over 210 at-bats.
Last year, his bat started to emerge, highlighted by an elite RBI rate (23). Pasquantino missed the final month with a broken right thumb. He was on pace to deliver 76 runs, 23 home runs, and 116 RBIs if he played in 156 games (only missed four starts before his injury). His best power month came in August (.261/18/7/25/1 over 111 at-bats).
His strikeout rate (12.8) regressed slightly while falling short of his career path in walk rate (7.2). Pasquantino lacked buzz in his contact batting average (.306 – .346 in the minors), capping the excitement in his batting average at this point in his career. He had a pullback in his average hit rate (1.700) while showing more strength in this area in the minors (1.951). Pasquantino has a rising fly-ball rate (42.9) while lacking excitement in his HR/FB rate (10.1). He ranked in the top 25% in exit velocity (91.0 – 51st) and hard-hit rate (46.5 – 48th) for batters (207) with at least 400 plate appearances.
Vinnie Pasquantino doesn’t think teams value first basemen enough pic.twitter.com/WMYHqp8Yv8
— Chris Rose Sports (@ChrisRoseSports) January 20, 2025
Fantasy Outlook: I viewed Pasquantino as a potential breakout player at first base over the past two seasons. Unfortunately, I haven’t been paid off. The fantasy snob (a story for a different day) in me wants to triple down on him in 2025, and he does hit one-off in the batting order from the sensational Bobby Witt. A year removed from shoulder surgery should help his power swing. I see a .290/90/30/110/5 player, with a push to the 15% range with his HR/FB rate (he reached that level in his time in the minors). Giddy up, the Pasquantino train will be in the express lane in 2025.
8 – Christian Walker, HOU (ADP – 101.3)
Over the past three seasons, Walker has developed into a solid major league batter with a high floor in runs, home runs, and RBIs. He missed 32 games in 2024 due to a late July oblique injury.
His walk rate (10.0) has been an asset in most seasons in the majors. He beat the league average in strikeout rate in 2022 (19.6) and 2023 (19.2), but Walker had a regression in this area last season. He made up for this shortfall by posting a four-year high in his contact batting average (.347). Walker finished with a career-best exit velocity (91.3 mph) with an increase in his hard-hit rate (48.0).
A batter must have an RBI rate of about 20.0% or higher to be considered an elite-run producer. Walker had his best season in RBI rate in 2023 (17.1), but he has ranked below par for a middle-of-the-order bat three times (13.5, 13.7, and 14.9) over the past four seasons. Walker made up for this weakness by having more than 420 chances in 2022 (423), 2023 (421), and 2024 (472 – adjusted up to match his at-bats over the previous two years due to his missed time. His actual total was 389 RBI chances). His increase in RBI opportunities last year was helped dramatically by Arizona leading the majors in runs (886).
"[Christian Walker] is the best defensive first baseman in MLB... he makes everybody out there defensively so much better."@TheMayorsOffice is a huge fan of Christian Walker and what he can provide in Houston. #Top10RightNow pic.twitter.com/uBjMzR4FAt
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 29, 2025
Walker hit better vs. left-handed pitching (.275), but 22 of his 26 home runs came off righties. Before the All-Star break, he hit .264 with 58 runs, 22 home runs, 66 RBIs, and two steals over 368 at-bats (on pace for an 87/33/97 season with 550 at-bats). His late-season injury led to a quiet end to the year (.231/10/3/13 over 78 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook: The Astros signed Walker to a three-year $60 million contract in December. He’ll start the year at 34 in a revamped Houston starting lineup. His ADP (101.3) is almost three rounds later than Pete Alonso in 15-team formats, showing the gap in perceived value for first basemen in 2025. I view Walker as the replacement in Alex Bregman’s stats for the Astros, with more power but some batting average risk. His baseline outlook this year should be: .250/8030/85.
9 – Josh Naylor, ARI (ADP – 106.3)
Last year, I would have hit more round-trippers at first base if I invested in Naylor. He ended up being an excellent value at the position, thanks to setting career-highs in at-bats (563), runs (84), home runs (31), and RBIs (108). His only black mark in 2024 was a sharp decline in contact batting average (.299 – .362 in 2023). Naylor finished with his highest average hit rate (1.876) of his career, which now supports 30+ home runs with 550 at-bats if repeated.
Other than his batting average (.186) in May, he kicked in the offensive door over the first half of the season (45 runs, 20 home runs, and 61 RBIs over 289 at-bats) while also knocking in 24 runs in August. Naylor lost his offensive production in July (.237/13/3/13/2) and September (.258/11/3/10/1).
His strikeout rate (16.6) and walk rate (9.2) finished in favorable areas. He had a groundball swing path (46.8%). Despite setting a new top by a wide margin in his HR/FB rate (18.6), Naylor had weakness in his exit velocity (89.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (40.9). His launch angle (11.0) has been in a similar range over the past three years.
Fantasy Outlook: Naylor is a dilemma player for me in 2025. There isn’t enough “good” in his profile to believe in his newfound power, but he does control the strike zone while being clutch at the plate over the past three seasons based on his RBI rate (18.9, 21.9, and 19.2). Last year, he ranked 30th in FPGscore (2.86) for hitters in an offense that finished 14th in runs scored (708). The Diamondbacks led the majors in scoring (886 runs) in 2024. I’ll set his bar at 80/25/90 with a rebound in batting average and some help in speed.
10 – Triston Casas, BOS (ADP – 117.3)
Over his first 1,019 at-bats in the minors, Casas hit .269 with 177 runs, 46 home runs, 181 RBIs, and 10 steals. His walk rate (13.6) graded well while keeping his strikeout rate (21.6) near the league average. In 2022, he hit .248 over his first 129 at-bats at AAA with 22 runs, six home runs, and 22 RBI. Unfortunately, an ankle injury pushed him to the injured list for eight weeks. Casas played another 36 games at AAA (.296/23/5/16 over 135 at-bats) before the Red Sox called him up in September.
In his time in the minors (1.873, 1.733, and 1.782) and with the Red Sox (2.067, 1.858, and 1.922), Casas had a high floor in his average hit rate, pointing to 30+ home runs early in his major league career. He struggled over his last two seasons in the minors against left-handed pitching (.217 over 161 at-bats with one home run and 13 RBI), an issue repeated with Boston in 2023 (.215/14/4/12 over 79 at-bats with 31 strikeouts) and 2024 (.250/6/3/4 over 56 at-bats with 21 strikeouts).
After a slow start over the first half of 2023 (.225/34/9/27 over 249 at-bats), Casas moved to stud status over his final 180 at-bats (.317/32/15/38), highlighted by an improved approach (walk rate – 14.2 and strikeout rate – 23.7). His season ended in mid-September due to a right shoulder injury.
Last season, he missed 99 games after tearing cartilage in his ribs in late April. His stats (.241/28/13/32) projected over 550 at-bats came to 73 runs, 34 home runs, and 83 RBIs.
Casas has a slight pullback in his exit velocity (90.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (45.2), with a bump in his groundball rate (42.2 – 40.4 in 2024). His HR/FB rate (25.0) ranked among the best power hitters. His rust at the plate led to a spike in his strikeout rate (31.7 – 25.1 in 2023) while maintaining a high walk rate (12.4).
Fantasy Outlook: For a fantasy drafter looking for a high ceiling in power, Casas should shine brightly in 2025. He has the tools to be a much better overall hitter if he can get his strikeouts under control and improve against left-handed pitching. His next step is producing better with runners on base (RBI rate – 14.6 in 2024 and 13.2 in his career). I can’t dismiss his injury history. He is trending toward a 90/30/90 season if Boston does give him the majority of his at-bats in the middle of the lineup. Torn as his sexiness to some drafter will push up his ADP in the high-stakes market.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.