Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Late-Round Shortstops to Target
Five shortstops hit 30 home runs or more, led by Gunnar Henderson (37). The top four ranked players scored 100 runs (Bobby Witt – 125, Henderson (118), Francisco Lindor (107), and Elly De La Cruz (105). Willy Adames won the RBI title (112) at short, with Witt (109) earning the runner-up prize. De La Cruz kicked in the stolen base door (67) for the position. Seven other players stole 30 home runs or more.
Here are Fantasy on SI's shortstop rankings 11-15 entering the 2025 fantasy baseball season:
11 – Willy Adames, SF (ADP – 86.4)
The Giants rewarded Adames for his recent uptick with a $182 million contract in December for seven seasons. Last year, he set career highs in runs (93), double (33), home runs (32), and stolen bases (21), helped by a new top in at-bats (610). His uptick in speed appears to be an outlier stat based on his previous six years in the majors. Adames came to the plate with a top-tier RBI opportunity (478 runners on base).
His strikeout rate (25.2) was a career-best while continuing to be below the league average. He finished with a favorable walk rate (10.8). Adames has a high fly-ball swing path (49.8) with the 11th-ranked launch angle (20.6). His exit velocity (88.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (40.5) were below his best seasons. Over the past five years, he posted an average hit rate higher than 1.800. Adames finished with a lower-than-career average HR/FB rate (14.6) for the second consecutive season.
He struggled against lefties (.191/25/4/16/3 over 152 at-bats), which has been an issue in his career (.221 over 898 at-bats with 124 runs, 33 home runs, 108 RBIs, and 11 steals). Adames had his most productive month in August (.289 over 104 at-bats with 24 runs, 10 home runs, 24 RBIs, and three stolen bases). He had four to five home runs in April, May, June, July, and September. The Brewers gave him 522 of his 610 at-bats in the fourth and fifth slots in their batting order.
The @SFGiants got their guy in Willy Adames 🌉 pic.twitter.com/8wV5Cqky5w
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 30, 2024
Fantasy Outlook: The switch to Oracle Park invites a lower batting average and a potential step back in power. Adames wants to hit home runs, but he projects to have a drop of 100 RBI chances. The Giants should hit him in a favorable part of the batting order. Last year, Milwaukee ranked second in stolen bases (217) compared to 29th by San Francisco (68th). I only see a .240/80/30/85/5 hitter, painting a much lower value in FPGscore (13th in 2024 – 5.82). On the positive side, he looks fairly priced based on the early ADPs.
12 – Jeremy Pena, HOU (ADP – 162.7)
Pena showed growth in stolen bases (20) in his time with the Astros, but home runs didn’t come along for the ride. He put 20 balls over the fence in his rookie campaign over 521 at-bats, but his power output has underperformed expectations over the past two seasons (10 and 15 over 1,179 combined at-bats). Pena came to the plate last season with 444 runs on base. Unfortunately, his RBI rate (12) was well below a middle-of-the-order bat.
His contact batting average (.326) is trending lower as his strikeout rate (17.1 – career-low) improves. He only took 25 walks (3.9%) last season. Pena still hits too many groundballs (49.4%) with a minimal change in his exit velocity (88.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (38.8). His average hit rate (1.481) has been in a light-hitting power area in back-to-back seasons.
He played well last April (.327/16/3/11/4 over 113 at-bats), followed by two quiet months (.248 over 198 at-bats with 23 runs, two home runs, 23 RBIs, and six stolen bases). Pena picked up the power pace in July and August (.265/31/9/29/5 over 200 at-bats) but drove the bus home with a downtick over his final 91 at-bats (.231/8/1/7/5). His bat offered a higher average against left-handed pitching (.306 over 157 at-bats with 17 runs, four home runs, 14 RBIs, and five steals).
Fantasy Outlook: Pena performed better in fantasy stats based on his FPGscore (1.08 – 52nd) for hitters than his underlying metrics. In the early draft season, he is the 95th batter selected based on his ADP in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, making him a value if Pena repeated his 2024 season. He must improve with runners on base and add more loft to his swing path to reach a higher ceiling in home runs and RBIs. Houston gave him most of his at-bats between fourth and sixth in the batting order. Pena isn’t far off from being a 20/20 player in perception (surface stats), and his counting stats are helped by being in the lineup on most nights. He also has room for improvement in batting average.
13 – Anthony Volpe, NYY (ADP – 135.5)
Over the past two seasons, Volpe suited up for 319 out of 324 games for the Yankees. Last year, he lost his home run swing, highlighted by the drop in his average hit rate (1.497 – 1.832 in 2023 and 2.417 in the minors). Volpe turned into a high-volume groundball hitter (50.2%) who lost his ability to barrel a baseball (3.9%). His exit velocity (87.7 mph), hard-hit rate (34.9), and HR/FB rate (8.8) turned into negative data points.
New York gave him plenty of leash in their leadoff slop (327 at-bats), but he had a poor on-base percentage (.293), with below-par stats (.242/49/4/24/12 over 327 at-bats). His lack of success led to a push to the lower third of the batting order for the bulk of his remaining at-bats. Volpe hit .276 over his first 286 at-bats with 49 runs, six home runs, 25 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases but ended the year on a down note (.217/41/6/35/15 over 351 at-bats).
His strikeout rate (22.6) moved closer to the league average, but Volpe has a step back in his walk rate (6.1 – 8.7 in 2023). Since arriving in the majors, his contact batting average (.313) has been well below his time in the minor leagues (.348).
Play No. 11 of 2024: Anthony Volpe smacks a go-ahead grand slam in the #WorldSeries! pic.twitter.com/YeUKrbCQSY
— MLB (@MLB) December 8, 2024
Fantasy Outlook: With two almost 1,300 plate appearances under his belt with New York, Volpe should be much better in 2025. He profiled as a 25/50 player coming to the Yankees with a top-of-the-order walk rate. His rookie luster is gone, suggesting fewer eyeballs on him and a sliding ADP unless Volpe shows a power stroke in spring training. He is not far off from a 20/30 player who helps in runs, but his metrics below the surface invite more questions than answers. He finished last season ranked 59th in FPGscore (0.67) for hitters.
14 – Ezequiel Tovar, COL (ADP – 127.4)
Colorado gave Tovar his AAA development year in the majors in 2023. His volume at-bats led to competitive stats in four categories (79/15/73/11), but he battled his approach all year (strikeout rate – 27.4 and walk rate – 4.1). As a result, his batting average (.253) was a liability. He struggled in April (.214 with 10 runs, no home runs, and eight RBIs) while helping fantasy teams with his combined stats in May, June, and August (.280 with 48 runs, 13 home runs, 46 RBIs, and seven stolen bases). Tovar didn’t hit a home run in September over 111 at-bats.
The Rockies moved Tovar to the top two spots of their lineup for 91.1% of his elite at-bats (655) last season, helping him beat the league average in runs (83) and RBIs (78). His average hit rate (1.744) and contact batting average (.387) reached a much more attractive level, but he has regression in his approach (strikeout rate – 28.8 and walk rate – 3.3).
Tovar had a tight range in runs (12 to 17), home runs (3 to 6), and RBIs (12 to 15) in every month last year while shining in batting average in May (.308/17/5/12/2 over 117 at-bats) and July (.307/16/6/15 over 101 at-bats). Over his best two months, he had five walks and 68 strikeouts.
His rise in power was helped by a much higher fly-ball rate (45.9 – 33.8 in 2023) and launch angle (18.9 –12.6 in 2023). He had a minimal change in his exit velocity (88.8 mph) while showing growth in his hard-hit rate (39.7).
Fantasy Outlook: Last year, Tovar finished 44th in FPGscore (1.83) for hitters, right next to Brice Turang, CJ Abrams, and Oneil Cruz. Tovar has a more attractive feel heading into 2025, but he only improved his ability to put the ball in the air. His high strikeout rate invites slumps, and Tovar didn’t gain that much by playing in Colorado (.277/44//13/42/2 over 325 at-bats). Repeat ability in high-volume at-bats can be challenging at the level of the player pool, suggesting a regression in his overall stats unless his approach improves. Tovar should get stronger over the winter. A drop in his strikeout rate would lead to more balls in play and better production this year. His sprint speed (28.1) invites more stolen base attempts this year. Wild card player f
15 – Xavier Edwards, MIA (ADP – 157.9)
Over six seasons in the minors, Edwards hit .313 with 295 runs, 14 home runs, 172 RBIs, and 119 stolen bases over 1,781 at-bats. He had about a year and a half of experience at AAA (.304/139/13/86/44 over 828 at-bats). He had strength in his walk rate (10.5) while being challenging to strike out (11.6).
Edwards suffered a left foot injury last March, leading to him not having a chance to make the Marlins out of spring training and starting his minor league year on the injured list. His first at-bat at AAA came in late May. He went 19-for-52 over his first 13 games with four runs, three RBIs, and three stolen bases, earning him a three-day pass to the big league. The Marlins shipped him back to the minors for another two weeks (.298/7/1/3/2 over 57 at-bats).
His bat shined in Miami in July (.395 over 86 at-bats with one home run, 12 RBIs, and nine steals). Other than missing 10 days in late August with a back issue, Edwards performed well over his final 170 at-bats (.300/24/0/14/22). He has a top-of-the-order walk rate (10.9) while finishing with a higher but favorable strikeout rate (17.2) than his time on the minors.
Edwards has a groundball swing path (50.7%) with barely a pulse in his HR/FB rate (1.8). Only 26.5% of his balls in play last year were fly balls. His exit velocity (86.1 mph) and hard-hit rate (23.9) give him no upside in power or RBI production. In his time with Miami, he had an outlier contact batting average (.400 – .361 in the minors), considering his lack of pop when putting the ball in play. His average hit rate (1.287) suggests hitting more than five home runs will be a tall task.
Fantasy Outlook: Edwards projects to have two assets (batting average and stolen bases), and he should finish with close to neutral stats in runs. A base stealer in waiting can be a great asset for a fantasy team loaded with power. Unfortunately, adding him to a roster instantly gives back any foundation gains in power and RBIs. Possible 60 stolen bases with 80 runs, five home runs, 50 RBIs, and a .300 batting average. Edwards is not my kind of dance based on his current price point.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.