Fantasy Football Projections: Find 4 Wide Receiver ADP Values in Alec Pierce, 3 Others

These wide receivers are projected to be better than the consensus average draft position as of early August.

Dec 28, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce (14) warms up before a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

There is value to be had across the entire big board of a fantasy football draft. It is up to a sharp mind to leverage that value. To leverage it, a manager must first identify value. From there, we find "value at ADP" and proceed to dominate our leagues. Here are the top 4 ADP values that we find when comparing projections to current wide receiver ADP's.

Alec Pierce

Pierce remains among the NFL's most underrated wide receivers, and Shane Steichen has come to realize it. Pierce ranked 6th in EPA per Game among all wide receivers. He trailed the likes of Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and George Pickens. With newfound health via Daniel Jones, the Colts might be onto something this season.

The 2025 season was the best of Pierce's career, despite playing a handful of games with mediocre backups. He had 84 targets, 47 receptions, 1,003 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Pierce led the NFL in yards per reception (21.3), hence his EPA metric.

Our projections find Pierce above ADP at a sure-fire value play. The Colts' wideout is their WR1 and expected to play like it with a 24-27% target share range. He leads Josh Downs (20-23%) and Tyler Warren (23-27%). This goes for a team that projects to pass for 225 yards per game.

Pierce officially projects as our PPR WR31 and Standard-Scoring WR23. In ADP, Pierce is the PPR WR35 and Standard-Scoring WR31.

Christian Watson

If I had my own "Ride or Die" of 2026, it might be Watson. The Green Bay Packers have tripled down on their young wide receiver with a hefty four-year contract extension. They believe he is their man, and that he will be. The counterparts are Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden. These are two wide receivers who play a lot smaller and add much different value to this passing offense.

Watson should own the vertical passing game of this Packers offense. He should also be a red-zone phenom.

Our projections see big things for Watson with a 24-27% target share, 59 yards per game, and 8.7 total touchdowns. He is our PPR WR21 and Standard-Scoring WR19. In ADP, Watson is the PPR WR30 and Standard-Scoring WR29.

Michael Pittman Jr.

Aaron Rodgers is going out gunslinging. That favors both Pittman Jr. and DK Metcalf. Pittsburgh is expected to run a pass-heavy offense, going for about 60% with a projected. This shall result in roughly 215-220 passing yards per game. That is a world in which Pittman Jr. and Metcalf are neck-and-neck in target shares, each near 25%.

The Steelers signed Pittman Jr. for a reason. This brand-new coaching staff believes hebrand-new will fit their scheme. Pittman Jr. is a player whom we project to have 50 yards per game, 4.6 receptions per game, and 6.2 total touchdowns. He is not a league-winner, but Pittman Jr. is our PPR WR29 and Standard-Scoring WR35. ADP has him as the PPR WR40 and Standard-Scoring WR45.

Jaylen Waddle

Waddle is another one of my "Ride or Die" candidates. I will not be fooled — Waddle is Bo Nix's WR1, not Courtland Sutton. Though both wideouts will command great volume, we find Waddle with a 28-30% target share, ahead of Sutton's 25%. Waddle is projected to bring in about 65 yards per game with some rushing yards mixed in. He can easily fringe on double-digit scores in Sean Payton's high-upside offense.

Waddle is our PPR WR16 and Standard-Scoring WR14. ADP shows him as the WR22 in both formats.